Glacial Crisis Grips Both Sides of LoC: 25% Glaciers Vanished

MUZAFFARABAD: Rising temperatures, frequent rainfall, hailstorms, cloud bursts, and unusual snowfall patterns are contributing to the fast melting of glaciers in the Neelum Valley region, signalling their complete disappearance in the next few decades.

A video of melting glacier in PAK

Often referred to as “heaven on earth,” Neelum Valley in Pakistan-administered Kashmir captivates with its lush green dense forest-covered mountains, waterfalls, lakes, meadows, glaciers, springs, and snow-capped peaks, creating a breathtaking landscape. However, the impact of climate change is evident in these stunning surroundings.

A video of melting glaciers in PAK

In a compelling and sobering message, environmental expert Dr Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan, Deputy Director at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Government of Pakistan Administered Kashmir (PAK), delivered a stark message: Glaciers in this picturesque region are rapidly diminishing, hurtling towards complete disappearance within the next 50 years. Shockingly, almost 25% of these glaciers have already vanished between 2000 and 2017, as revealed by the ‘State of Environment in Azad Kashmir’ study published in 2018.

Dr Khan detailed the alarming decline in glacier coverage since 2000 in Neelum Valley, citing findings from the aforementioned study.

“The glacier deposit area reduced from 15,110 hectares in 2000 to 13,520 hectares in 2010, indicating a melt of 1,590 hectares in ten years, which means on an average of 159 hectares every year. This accelerated rate continued, with the glacier area further reducing to 11,350 hectares by 2017, representing a melt of 2,170 hectares in just seven years, equivalent to an annual melting rate of 310 hectares annually,” he added. This accelerated rate of glacier melting occurred from 2010 to 2017, with a total melt of 3,760 hectares. On an average, he highlighted that this indicates a loss of 220 hectares of glaciers every year since 2000.

A video of melting glaciers in PAK

“The current pace of glacial retreat raises serious concerns, potentially leading to the disappearance of these critical water resources within the next 51 years,” warned the Environmental Expert.

A video of melting glaciers in PAK

Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan’s paper, published in the Journal of Earth Science & Climatic Change for the 8th International Conference on Environment and Climate Change, reveals a disconcerting trend: the Himalayan glaciers are retreating at rates ranging from 159 to 309 hectares per year. He explained that, considering the trend of glacier melting from 2000 to 2017, the glaciers’ covered area may have further reduced to 10,396-9,496 hectares, indicating an additional decrease of about 954 to 1,854 hectares and a total reduction of 5,000-6,000 hectares since 2000. However, no systematic or scientific survey or study has been conducted since 2017.

Accelerated Warming and Melting Glaciers

Dr Khan attributes the rapid glacier melting and the formation of glacier lakes in Azad Kashmir to rising temperatures and climate change. He points out these glacier lakes pose a substantial threat, potentially leading to Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in the future.

“When glaciers melt, it results in the formation of glacial lakes. These glacial lakes can become a major cause of disaster in the future, known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs),” Dr Khan warns.

The report, published in the January 2012 in the Pakistan Journal of Meteorology, titled “Monitoring and Estimation of Glacial Resource of Azad Jammu and Kashmir Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques” revealed the existence of over 224 glaciers, primarily concentrated in the Neelum Valley district because glaciers are located there. The study also emphasized the presence of 76 glacial lakes covering a combined area of about 545 hectares in the study region.

The study revealed the existence of over 224 glaciers holding approximately 4.9 cubic km of ice reserves. These frozen bodies, including Saranwali, Shonthar, Parbat, Dewarian, Rati Gali, and Mianwitch, play a crucial role in shaping the glacial ecosystem of the area.

According to the report, the glaciers exhibit varying thicknesses, ranging from 5 to 82 meters, with an average thickness of 24 meters. The report notes that 53% of these glaciers are thicker than 20 meters, while only 5% have a thickness greater than 50 meters.

Major types of glaciers, such as Cirque, Valley, Niche, Mountain, Ice Apron, and Ice Cap, have distinct physical characteristics and associations with the surroundings.

“The majority of glaciers fall under the Cirque type (89 in number), followed by 43 Ice-Apron glaciers. Additionally, there are 50 Mountain-type glaciers and 3 Valley-type glaciers. The large Valley glaciers of Neelum valley are Saranwali and Shonthar, with mean lengths of about 8 and 7 km and ice reserves of about 0.488 and 0.534 cubic kms, respectively. The former is the longest, and the latter has the largest surface area and ice reserve,” the report adds.

According to the report, Saranwali shows a gradual decrease in glacial area upward of 5000 metres Above Sea Level (ASL), while Shonthar exhibits a similar trend with a surprising 25% increase within the 5000-5500 metres range, possibly due to the merging of branch glaciers.

The study also delves into catchment areas, uncovering 87 glaciers, covering half the glaciated area and contributing over 63% of the total ice reserves of the region, lie in the catchment of Shonthar Nala. Other catchments like Surgun Nala and Jagran Nala house 60 and 35 glaciers, holding 21% and 10% of the total ice reserves, respectively.

Crucially, the study identifies 76 glacial lakes, primarily in the Neelum Valley, with 40 major lakes surpassing 2 hectares in surface area. The lakes, classified into six types based on physical characteristics, become crucial indicators of change in the region. The study notes that about 53 percent of these lakes belong to the Erosion type, while 20 percent fall under the Cirque type. The high prevalence of Erosion type lakes in this area serves as a significant indicator of glacier recession, likely influenced by global environmental changes in the past, the study added.

Dr Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan highlights the intensification of cloud bursts and avalanches in recent years, citing at least six incidents in Neelum Valley and Leepa Valley of Pakistan-administered Kashmir since 2019 until this year. These events, which killed and injured dozens of people, also caused significant damage and destruction to numerous residential houses and crops. The heightened frequency of these events exacerbates the threats posed by climate change.

Temperature Increase

Over the past fifty years, PAK has experienced a concerning rise in average temperature, amounting to an alarming two degrees Celsius, as emphasized by environmental expert Dr Khan. Looking into the future, he cautions that this warming trend is anticipated to escalate further, with projections suggesting a potential increase exceeding three degrees Celsius by the end of the 21st century. He attributes the ramifications of such warming as severe, impacting human health, biodiversity, and critical water resources, thereby posing significant risks to the region.

Disturbance weather pattern

“In this way, the pattern of snowfall has been disrupted, and unexpectedly, heavy snowfall is occurring,” explains Dr Khan.  He notes instances of heavy snowfall in June during 2021 and 2023, resulting in the mountains being covered with three to four feet of snow. This disturbance in the seasonal pattern is affecting various aspects of the environment, including livelihoods and biodiversity.

To address these challenges, Dr Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan emphasizes the crucial need for immediate action. “To control this, it is essential for us to plant more trees, reduce deforestation, and promote afforestation,” he advises adding, “The presence of more forests can contribute to controlling temperatures. In this way, we can contribute to the preservation of these glaciers.”

Climate Change Policy

In 2017, the government of PAK introduced the “Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) Climate Change Policy,” acknowledging a critical issue — limited education, capacity building, and institutional expertise to address climate change. The policy recognized a scarcity of trained human resources, attributed to brain drain, minimal investment in climate change education, and a lack of demand for skilled individuals in AJK.

Citing a deficiency in credible institutions to manage climate change matters comprehensively, the government emphasized the priority of capacity building and institutional strengthening. While the comprehensive policy outlines a strategic approach to tackling climate change challenges through education, capacity building, and institutional strengthening, progress has been notably slow, with little to no tangible advancements in these areas. The region continues to face financial constraints, hindering effective implementation.

This raises questions about the actual commitment of the government to address the pressing global concern of climate change.

Across the Line of Control

On the other side of the Line of Control, studies, including a first-of-its-kind research conducted by Earth scientist and glaciology expert Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo and his team in 2020, indicate a concerning 25% decline in glaciers over the last six decades in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and Ladakh.

Projections suggest a potential loss of 68% by the century’s end, even under moderate climate change. Romshoo, currently the Vice Chancellor of the University of Kashmir, emphasizes the significance of the region’s 18,000 glaciers, such as the substantial Siachen glacier.

Warning of a potential 68% loss by the century’s end under the worst climate change scenario, Romshoo’s study, published in the Journal Scientific Reports, highlights an annual mass reduction of 35 centimeters in over 1,200 glaciers in the Himalayan region between 2000 and 2012. The research covers areas across the Line of Control (LoC) and Line of Actual Control (LAC), with glaciers in the Pir Panjal range melting rapidly, exceeding one meter per year, while those in the Karakoram range experience a slower rate of around 10 centimeters per year.

Alarming Situation

 But Dr Sardar Muhammad Rafique Khan said that situation may be “more serious in Pakistan administered Kashmir than the Indian administered Kashmir.”

“Between 2000 and 2010, 159 hectares of glaciers melted each year. The rate doubled from 2010 to 2017, with 310 hectares disappearing annually. On an average, 220 hectares of glaciers melted each year from 2000 to 2017. If this rapid melting persists, the remaining 11,350 hectares of glaciers in 2017 could vanish within 51 years. These numbers reveal an alarming acceleration in ice loss,” Khan added.

Apart from the Polar regions, Pakistan boasts of more glaciers—over 7,000—than any other place globally.

According to the UNDP, over 3,000 lakes had formed by 2018 due to melting glaciers in the Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions of Pakistan. Thirty-three of these lakes were considered hazardous, putting over 7 million people at risk downstream.

South Asian, with a population of 220 million, has been severely impacted by climate change. In 2022, an unprecedented deluge and unexpected monsoon rainfall submerged one-third of the country, resulting in 1,700 deaths nationwide. Floods have affected over 33 million people, mainly in Sindh and Baluchistan provinces, causing damage to homes, infrastructure, and dams.

A recent study revealed that as glaciers melt and release substantial water into nearby lakes, 15 million people globally are under the threat of sudden and deadly outburst floods. Over half of those at risk are concentrated in four countries: India, Pakistan, Peru, and China, as reported in the February 2023 study published in Nature Communications.

Another study warned that glaciers across the Hindukush Himalayan mountain ranges could lose up to 80% of their volume this century without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions.

The Kathmandu-based International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development emphasized the growing likelihood of flash floods and avalanches in the coming years, posing risks to nearly 2 billion people downstream of 12 rivers originating in the mountains. The Hindu Kush Himalayan ranges, a vital source of water for these rivers, impact 16 Asian countries and provide freshwater to 240 million people in the mountains and an additional 1.65 billion downstream.

Graphs and Tables as published in the Status of Environment in Azad Kashmir report.

—–