MUZAFFARABAD: Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir (PaJK) will go to the polls on July 27 to elect its 45-member Legislative Assembly, as preparations for the 12th general elections enter the final phase.
With the filing of nomination papers completed, election authorities are now scrutinising candidates' documents before publishing the final list of contestants.
A comparative analysis of the 2026 and 2021 electoral rolls, prepared by senior journalist Abdul Jabbar Nasir, shows that the electorate has expanded significantly over the past five years.
The report compares male, female and total voters in every constituency, records the percentage increase in voters, and lists the number of candidates who have filed nomination papers in each seat.
According to the report, the total electorate has increased from 3,233,631 voters in 2021 to 3,804,385 in 2026, an addition of 570,754 voters, representing an overall increase of 17.65 percent. Male voters now number 2,001,730, while 1,802,655 are women.
The Legislative Assembly comprises 45 constituencies, including 33 territorial constituencies within Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir and 12 constituencies reserved for refugees from Jammu and Kashmir settled in Pakistan.
The analysis shows that 43 of the 45 constituencies registered increases in voter numbers, ranging from 1.67 percent to 36.18 percent, while two refugee constituencies recorded declines.
The highest increase overall was recorded in LA-43 (Jammu Refugees-IV), where the electorate grew by 36.18 percent, rising from 2,457 voters in 2021 to 3,346 in 2026. Among the 33 territorial constituencies, LA-32 (Mirpur-VI) registered the fastest growth, with its electorate increasing by 28.02 percent, from 70,854 to 90,710 voters.
The lowest increase was recorded in LA-34 (Jammu Refugees-I), where voter registration rose by just 1.67 percent.
Two constituencies recorded a decline in voter numbers. LA-40 (Valley Refugees-I) witnessed the sharpest fall, with its electorate dropping by 8.09 percent, from 5,327 to 4,896. LA-42 (Jammu Refugees-III) recorded a decline of 2.73 percent, from 4,461 to 4,339 voters.
The largest constituency by electorate is LA-7 (Bhimber-III), with 129,994 registered voters, followed by LA-31 (Mirpur-V) with 128,177, LA-12 (Kotli-II) with 126,332, LA-23 (Poonch-VI) with 126,308, and LA-11 (Kotli-I) with 124,664 voters.
At the other end of the scale, LA-43 (Jammu Refugees-IV) is the smallest constituency with 3,346 voters, followed by LA-42 (Jammu Refugees-III) with 4,339, LA-40 (Valley Refugees-I) with 4,896, LA-41 (Valley Refugees-II) with 6,410, and LA-44 (Valley Refugees-V) with 6,926 voters.
The figures also highlight significant differences in constituency sizes. The largest constituency, LA-7, has nearly 39 times more registered voters than the smallest constituency, LA-43, underscoring the demographic imbalance between territorial and refugee seats.
Competition is expected to be intense in several constituencies. The highest number of nomination papers was filed in LA-29 (Mirpur-III), where 59 candidates entered the race. It is followed by LA-10 (Kotli-V) with 53 candidates, LA-27 (Muzaffarabad-I) with 45, LA-3 (Mirpur-III) and LA-11 (Kotli-I) with 43 each, and LA-23 (Poonch-VI) with 42 candidates.
The analysis also points to an administrative gap. Nasir notes that constituency-wise electoral data for the 2021 elections was not available on the websites of the Election Commission or any government institution. To prepare the comparison, he reconstructed the earlier voter figures using archived reports from media organisations and research institutions.
The updated electoral rolls indicate continued population growth and voter registration across most of Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, setting the stage for a closely contested election on July 27, when voters will elect representatives to the 45-seat Legislative Assembly.
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