Altaf Hussain Wani*
The recent elections in Jammu and Kashmir, culminating in a coalition victory for the National Conference (NC) and the Indian National Congress (INC), have sparked vigorous discussions about the region’s political trajectory.
While these electoral outcomes may indicate a shift in power dynamics, they also highlight the enduring aspiration for self-determination among the Kashmiri populace. This aspiration extends far beyond the electoral process.
Engineer Rashid’s victory in the parliamentary elections marked a significant moment in Kashmir’s political landscape. His success in defeating Omar Abdullah, the former Chief Minister and Vice President of the National Conference, as well as Sajjad Ghani Lone, was seen as indicative of changing political tides.
Rashid, who had spent five years incarcerated, emerged as a symbol of resilience, gaining substantial support from the youth, eager for change. His release on bail to the campaign was viewed as a strategic manoeuvre, with many believing he could challenge the dominance of established parties like the NC and the PDP.
However, despite the initial enthusiasm surrounding Rashid’s campaign, subsequent decisions raised concerns. Allegations of his association with candidates suspected of links to Indian intelligence agencies led to the perception that he was functioning as a “B team” for the BJP.
This perception alienated many of his supporters, who had rallied around him during his parliamentary campaign. Consequently, Rashid found himself increasingly isolated, creating more adversaries than allies. The youth who once championed his cause began to distance themselves, paving the way for Omar Abdullah to reclaim his influence.
The National Conference and the PDP, once the cornerstones of Kashmiri politics, now face significant challenges to their relevance. The National Conference has made efforts to re-establish itself and capture voter attention.
Omar Abdullah’s campaign emphasised the restoration of Articles 370 and 35A, although he acknowledged the considerable challenges ahead. The party’s vice president adopted a candid approach during the election campaign, openly discussing past mistakes. This resonated with voters who felt the loss of their special status deeply.
In contrast, the PDP, under Mehbooba Mufti and her daughter Iltija Mufti, has struggled to regain the electorate’s trust. Despite a strong campaign against the revocation of Articles 370 and 35A, the party’s previous collaboration with the BJP continues to haunt its efforts.
Many view the coalition government as a betrayal of Kashmiri interests, complicating the PDP’s attempts to restore its former prominence. Candidates previously aligned with the BJP have distanced themselves from the party, becoming vocal critics, yet they have failed to satisfy the electorate. Sajjad Lone’s narrow victory in Handwara by just 662 votes, while finishing third in Kupwara, underscores the precariousness of the political landscape. The J&K Apni Party also faced significant losses.
The Indian National Congress similarly struggled in Jammu, failing to capitalise on its parliamentary gains. In Kashmir Valley, the Congress secured only five seats, mainly because the NC chose not to field candidates in those constituencies.
The BJP’s attempts to consolidate power by granting Scheduled Caste status to the Pahari community and addressing the concerns of the Gujjar community did not yield the expected electoral rewards.
Instead, these strategies further complicated the political landscape. The BJP’s efforts to consolidate power through caste-based politics were met with scepticism, as the electorate appeared more concerned with state identity than with caste status. Notably, several prominent figures from these communities who joined the BJP after being granted Scheduled Tribe status were defeated in the elections.
The lesson for the BJP is clear: while dividing people by caste and creed may bring success in mainland India, it has not resonated in Jammu and Kashmir. In the Kashmir Valley, the party failed to secure any seats, and even in the Muslim-majority areas of Jammu, the BJP’s attempts at gerrymandering assembly segments did not result in electoral success. The electorate has decisively rejected the politics of division and animosity.
Amid these shifting political dynamics, the aspiration for self-determination remains a central theme in the discourse surrounding Jammu and Kashmir.
Post Election Roadmap
For many Kashmiris, elections serve as a means to express their political will, but they do not equate to the fulfillment of their fundamental rights. The desire for autonomy, dignity, and self-governance transcends party politics and electoral cycles.
The leadership of the National Conference now stands at a critical juncture. There is an urgent need for the party to engage with the Indian government to advocate for the release of political prisoners and the repeal of draconian laws that have stifled dissent and curtailed civil liberties.
Dialogue with both Pakistan and the Kashmiri populace is essential for fostering lasting peace and addressing the root causes of the conflict. Omar Abdullah has a unique opportunity to press the Indian government for the release of all political prisoners and the repeal of oppressive laws enacted during previous administrations. Collaborating with other political parties to advocate for dialogue with Pakistan and the Kashmiri people is crucial for achieving a sustainable resolution to the Kashmir issue.
As the new government takes shape, it must navigate a myriad of challenges. The restoration of Articles 370 and 35A remains a pivotal issue, as does the demand for statehood. The Kashmiri people seek concrete actions that restore their sense of self-respect and autonomy. The question persists: to what extent will this coalition government fulfill its promises and regain control over powers previously vested in the Lieutenant Governor?
In conclusion, the recent elections in Jammu and Kashmir highlight the complexities of the region’s political landscape. While the victories of certain parties and candidates may signal a shift in power dynamics, they do not address the deeper issues at play. For Kashmiris, the quest for self-determination remains paramount; elections, while significant, cannot replace the fundamental rights and freedoms they seek.
The path forward requires a commitment to dialogue, understanding, and genuine political engagement that prioritises the aspirations of the Kashmiri people. As the political landscape evolves, it is imperative for leaders to recognise that the yearning for autonomy and dignity cannot be silenced by electoral victories alone.
The struggle for self-determination endures, and it is the responsibility of all stakeholders to ensure that the voices of the Kashmiri people are heard and respected in the pursuit of lasting peace and justice.
*The writer is chairman of the Islamabad-based think tank, the Kashmir Institute of International Relations (KIIR) & can be reached at saleeemwani@hotmail.com or on X at @sultan1913.
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