“The poll verdict which broke the perception of Modi invincibility augurs well for Indian democracy and federalism. The opposition and regional players have emerged stronger and it reveals the limits of ideological majoritarian politics.”
Noor Ahmad Baba*
The 2024 national elections are important in the context of the politics that developed in India during the last decade since Narendra Modi became Prime Minister in 2014. Even though he theoretically headed a coalition government of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), his party enjoyed a sufficient majority, providing enough scope and flexibility to carry out its politics and policies without any major hindrance.
Prime Minister Modi’s style of functioning, with full support from his party and its ideological allies both within and outside the government, alongside a weak opposition, allowed him to gain almost total control of his party and the government. Even the cabinet, which is supposed to work on a collegial principle, practically revolved around the Prime Minister, facilitated through the instrument of the PMO.
Moreover, his gradual co-option of important institutions of governance rendered Indian politics somewhat personalised and authoritarian, enabling him to neutralize the checks and balances within the system considerably.
Coupled with this, the fragile and fragmented opposition meant no party even qualified for the position of the leader of the opposition within the parliament during the last decade. All this facilitated the process of undermining the viable functioning of the parliament and rushing through many important legislations unilaterally without being sufficiently debated and discussed within it.
With this position, his government was able to accomplish his party’s ideologically oriented policies, particularly during his second stint in power since 2019.
His popularity was so exaggerated that it seemed that he had somewhat mesmerized the overwhelming majority of the Indian public, strengthening the notion that he had become electorally invincible and was likely to dominate Indian politics for a longer period to come. This view was reinforced vigorously by large sections of corporate-controlled mainstream media.
This projection continued right through the 2024 elections, predicting a substantial increase in his party’s majority in the parliament. All this had implications for the viable working of democratic institutions, federalism, social pluralism, and constitutionalism, prompting some internationally recognised agencies and institutions to express critical views on India’s practices in these areas.
In this context, the 2024 election results are likely to signify certain watershed trends that have significant implications for the nature and workings of politics in India. The BJP, even though numerically still the largest party in parliament, lost the absolute majority that it enjoyed during the last ten years of holding power.
It is still able to form the government under Modi, but only with the support of its allies within the NDA, which is likely to constrain him and his party from carrying out their agenda and policies in the manner they did during the past decade. This is likely to augur well for the structural and institutional vibrancy connected to democracy, federalism, and the rule of law.
To begin with, it means that in many respects the government will be somewhat constrained by the mantra and dynamics of coalition politics. With alliance partners securing importance, the cabinet is going to be collegial in its functioning and will no longer remain a one-man show.
For the first time in his political career, ever since he became Chief Minister in Gujarat in 2001, Mr. Modi is not going to have a free hand inside his cabinet. His coalition partners, and even some of his senior colleagues from within the BJP, are likely to be more visible (if not assertive) in the cabinet.
In fact, it is going to test Modi’s ability to function as part of a team instead of continuing with what is suggested as his instinctive tendency to dominate. The prospects of the successful working of his coalition government will depend on his capacity to adapt to teamwork with his colleagues and the coalition partners.
Combined with this constraint from within the government, Modi will again have to contend with a numerically larger, rejuvenated, and somewhat better-coordinated opposition within the parliament under the Congress-led India Alliance.
On its own, the Congress party is going to secure the position of the leader of the opposition and associated privileges for its leader in the Lok Sabha. This is going to reinvigorate parliament’s working, making it increasingly difficult for the BJP to carry out its ideologically oriented and contentious policies as smoothly and unilaterally as happened during the past decade of its power.
Comparatively, the parliament is likely to be more functional and active, auguring well for India’s parliamentary system by enhancing legislative oversight and accountability. To that extent, there will be a check on the unilateralism and authoritarian tendencies in the government.
Another facet of the 2024 elections is the reinforced significance of regional parties in national politics, highlighted by their crucial presence in both the ruling NDA and the opposition India Alliance. After the BJP and the Congress party, the five numerically largest parties in parliament are essentially region-based.
The ruling alliance, led by the BJP, depends on regional coalition partners like Janta Dal United (JDU), the Telugu Desam Party, and other smaller regional formations for its smooth functioning. Within the opposition alliance, parties such as the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, Trinamool Congress (TMC) in Bengal, DMK in Tamil Nadu, and local formations in Maharashtra have gained and consolidated strength in their respective states.
This bodes well for the states, as these parties have vested interests in their regions and will focus more effectively on local concerns, ensuring a more balanced distribution of power between the centre and the states. This could signal a shift towards greater respect for state interests and federal principles, counterbalancing the perceived centralization of power seen in the past decade. This development strengthens what is referred to as political federalism.
The BJP’s dependence on formations that do not share its ideological position, combined with a more viable Congress-led opposition, is also expected to slow its Hindutva push on various issues. Most of these parties have stakes in minority well being. Also, its failure to capitalize on some of its achievements on this front, like the building of the Ram Temple and the removal of Article 370, is likely to impact its future push on such issues.
Its significant losses in northern India, particularly in UP, the bastion of its Hindutva politics, carry strong lessons for the BJP, indicating that for a common voter, more mundane day-to-day issues like unemployment and price rise matter more than emotive ideologically driven polarizing issues and agenda. It vindicates the fact that there is a limit to the electoral dividends of such issues.
Thus, the 2024 national elections in India mark a significant turning point in the country’s political landscape, resulting in the BJP losing its absolute majority, reinforcing certain vibrancy into the functioning of the coalition politics under the NDA, and reducing the centralization of power around the Prime Minister and his office.
Furthermore, a more vibrant and numerically stronger opposition, led by the Congress party, is poised to reinvigorate parliamentary functionality and oversight. The rise of regional parties within both the ruling and opposition alliances underscores the importance of the states and safeguarding their interests. This decentralization of power augurs well for India’s federal structure and social pluralism, fostering a more balanced and inclusive governance.
Overall, the 2024 election results signify a move towards enhanced democratic vibrancy, institutional resilience, restoring the federal balance, and reinforcing the social plurality of Indian society.
*Noor Ahmad Baba is a professor of Political Science and Former Dean, School of Social Sciences, Kashmir & Central University of Kashmir
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