Five months after the tragic Pahalgam attack, Kashmir’s tourism sector has entered a deep crisis. Hotels stand empty, bookings have dried up, and livelihoods linked to tourism — guides, artisans, transporters, shopkeepers — are collapsing. Media reports recently highlighted how fragile and uncertain our economy remains.
This crisis is not new.
Tourism’s collapse is only the most visible sign. Over the decades, we have seen horticulture and agriculture repeatedly disrupted by blockades, weathering political volatility without institutional protection; trade and investment frozen by curfews, communications shutdowns, and arbitrary restrictions; infrastructure and industry unable to develop due to uncertainty, insecurity, and lack of investor confidence.
As a consequence, the human capital, our youth, are migrating abroad, as opportunities shrink under political and economic suffocation.
The international community often prescribes “stability” or “development packages” as if they can substitute for a political solution. But Kashmir’s economic stagnation is not primarily about governance or investment flows; it is about the unresolved political status of the territory.
There are also periodic narratives advanced by sections of Indian media and intellectual circles that Kashmiris will “eventually accept integration” if they are offered economic incentives, tourism revival, or infrastructure development. These are illusions.
History since 1947, and especially post-1989, proves that without political justice, economic initiatives collapse under the weight of conflict. What Kashmiris demand is dignity, security, and the right to determine their future, not short-term packages that vanish at the next crisis.
Having been actively involved in Kashmir’s economy since the mid-1980s, beginning as Secretary General of the Kashmir Chamber of Commerce in 1986, I have consistently maintained that until there is a just settlement of Kashmir’s political issue, all sectors of our economy will continue to suffer. The present crisis strengthens my view.
In 2008 at the height of the Amaranth land row, I categorically told the same to the then minister of commerce Jairam Ramesh during one of his visits to the valley. As a Kashmiri, I am aware of the collective cycles of upheavals that Kashmir has witnessed, engendering a collective psyche in the region that makes it imperative for India and Pakistan to enter into a negotiated settlement of the issue in consultation with the people from all the regions of Jammu and Kashmir.
I say this for a reason.
At present, no serious investor is willing to put long-term capital into Kashmir. Political uncertainty makes every rupee precarious. But a settlement that provides stability and legitimacy would flip the script. Investors — local, regional, diaspora, and international — would view Kashmir not as a risk zone, but as an opportunity.
This has been tried and tested successfully in Northern Ireland, where peace process unlocked billions in investment once guns fell silent. Kashmir has the same potential. Economic prosperity in Kashmir is impossible without political justice.
Therefore, before economic models, a genuine political settlement of Kashmir must be based on the aspirations of its people, must offer the people the choice of deciding their future, must include negotiations where the people of all regions of Jammu & Kashmir — Kashmir Valley, Jammu, Ladakh, Azad Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan — are represented, and should facilitate a meaningful tripartite dialogue.
Anything short of this will only perpetuate cycles of unrest, uncertainty, and economic collapse.
What if such a settlement were to be negotiated? The answer is clear: Kashmir’s economy could witness an unprecedented transformation.
Tourism today collapses with every violent incident. With peace, Kashmir could emerge as one of the world’s premier destinations, like a South Asian Switzerland; heritage tourism could revive Mughal gardens, Sufi shrines, and craft traditions; eco-tourism and winter sports could flourish in Gulmarg, Pahalgam, Sonamarg, and beyond; and diaspora tourism would reconnect millions of Kashmiris abroad with their homeland.’
Tourism would further rejuvenate handicrafts, transport, hospitality, and the broader service sector.
Our farmers and orchardists face blocked highways (other than those induced by climate), market restrictions, and zero investment in technology. A settlement would open roads, expand markets, and attract agro-industrial investment. Apples, saffron, walnuts, and other high-value crops could reach Central Asian, Middle Eastern, and global markets with modern cold chains and processing facilities.
Perhaps the greatest economic dividend would be Kashmir’s transformation into a bridge of trade. This could lead to:
* Reopening Srinagar–Muzaffarabad and Poonch–Rawalakot roads.
* Linking Ladakh and Gilgit-Baltistan with Central Asia.
* Integrating with emerging corridors such as CPEC.
Instead of being a frontline of hostility, Kashmir could become a **corridor of commerce**, benefiting every community and region, and becoming the moral and spiritual hub of a new union of South Asian countries.
The Kashmiri diaspora, spread across the Gulf, Europe, and North America, has long wished to invest in their homeland but has been deterred by uncertainty. A just settlement would unlock this capital, channeling billions into housing, education, healthcare, and technology.
Skilled professionals who left could return or collaborate, reversing decades of brain drain. Freed from fear and instability, young Kashmiris would focus on innovation, entrepreneurship, and institution-building. Education, culture, and the arts would thrive. Social trust would return, allowing communities to cooperate in rebuilding.
Finally, a Kashmir settlement would not just benefit Kashmiris. It would reduce tensions between India and Pakistan, lower defense expenditures, and open South Asia to regional cooperation. The economic dividends would be regional, with Kashmir as the pivot of peace and prosperity.
In a nutshell, the equation is simple: Justice first, stability next, prosperity thereafter.
(*Dr Mubeen Shah is the Former Secretary General, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce & Industry; ex-President Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (2006-2009); Ex-President Jammu & Kashmir Chamber of Commerce & Industry (2012-2014); and presently heads the Kashmir House Türkiye and Kashmir Diaspora Coalition.)
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