‘The American dream seems to be crashing down. Human rights have become a joke, and elections are choosing monsters.’ This was the opinion of an American youth who voted for Donald Trump for the first time and expected the system's efficient functioning that seemed paralytic during the Biden regime. What he watches now is beyond his comprehension.
“Our White House which used to be the focal point for global diplomacy has become an interrogation centre,” he says.
His voice resonates with many Americans who think the White House has moved from diplomacy to trade organisation since Donald Trump took office.
The Stern Taskmaster
Recently, many heads of government have visited the White House, the latest being the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. How the policies are imposed upon them has created fear among friendly or enemy countries. They no longer seem to be treated as equals or as representatives of their countries, at least not even superficially.
Instead, they had to face a stern taskmaster in Trump, compelled to listen and comply with his demands, mostly placing the wealthiest democracy in the dock.
To illustrate, consider the visits of leaders like the Japanese Prime Minister, who was made to pledge trillions to spend in America, and the Israeli Prime Minister, who was shocked about the US takeover of Gaza. However, he had already destroyed and turned it into a rubble. Jordan's King Abdullah’s twitching eye expressed his discomfort about the Middle East restructuring plan.
Then, there was the most hyped visit of the Modi of India. His visit was significant, given Trump's status as his close friend and their shared right-wing ideologies. Wealthy tycoons surround both, and they are seen to be the policymakers of these countries.
The first notable moment came when, as per protocol, Trump did not greet Modi at the White House entrance, starkly contrasting the receptions given to other leaders. This moment received considerable attention and commentary. Later, footage of hugging, and patting was released. and media was informed of a closed-door meeting between two leaders.
The press conference was more than expected in the new setup.
The Changed Chemistry
Many observers noted the tense expressions on both leaders' faces, contrasting with Modi's earlier support for Trump among the Indian diaspora. Modi appeared stiff, and the chemistry felt different, with the dialogue more candid. A few sycophancy questions of Indian journalists to Trump hardly changed his stance. The press conference was amusing to watch.
Although Modi engaged in friendly discussions with tech giants and Trump's close associates before meeting the boss, he played an incredible role in reciprocal tariffs, with Trump having previously labelled him the "king of tariffs."
However, Modi’s stiffness didn’t ease up.
In the context of cross-border terrorism, which has become a stumbling block between India and Pakistan, Modi inevitably addressed the issue of border terrorism. The extradition of Pak origin Canadian citizen, Tahawwur Rana, alleged to be involved in the Mumbai attacks, emboldened Modi to speak more loudly against border terrorism without mentioning Pakistan.
India-Pakistan Tangle
Yet, this prompted a strong response from the Pakistani Foreign Office, which dismissed Modi's statements as baseless and one-sided, lacking proof.
Pakistan had anticipated more substantial discussions regarding Kashmir and Imran Khan's incarceration during the Trump-Modi conference, but those topics did not arise in the press conference or subsequent briefings. Some analysts believe that Modi's emphasis on cross-border terrorism aimed to secure Trump's assurance of support in case India decided to act along the Line of Control (LoC) or in case of skirmishes, but politicians did not buy this thought.
A few reports suggest a possible confrontation at the LoC, with military assets reportedly being transported to the Line of Control in recent months. “While the ceasefire at the LoC remains intact, Adani's establishment of industrial projects near the border has not indicated imminent conflict,” as per defence analyst Ravinder Acharya. Yet, Indian leaders have increasingly spoken about Pakistan’s medalling in Jammu and Kashmir and the increase in militant activities in border areas of Jammu.’
Pakistan has been silent on Kashmir since it has been mired in internal political turmoil. Only recently, the Army Chief’s visit to LoC areas and then the release of a statement of continuing support for Kashmir raised eyebrows in India. A few in Kashmir reacted by saying that ‘Pakistan has again raised the bogey of Kashmir, but there seem very few takers of it’.
Pakistan’s Silence On Indian Remarks
According to Acharya, “Apart from a few soft statements, Pakistan usually does not pay much attention to Indian remarks, likely due to backdoor diplomacy between the two nations, including the meetings between the spy heads a few years back."
"Diplomatic talks have continued despite tensions within. As long as the Sharif family and the military establishment in Pakistan remain aligned, India is not viewed as an enemy. Indirect trade, media and cultural exchanges have continued without significant interference from the Pakistani establishment.”
The view from Pakistan is somewhat different. “Given the challenges facing Pakistan, mainly its volatile borders with Afghanistan and Iran, the country cannot afford to engage in conflicts on multiple fronts. So, the border with India must remain calm, but India seems to be taking advantage of Pakistan's vulnerabilities, redirecting attention away from his side of Kashmir,” said a Pakistani defence analyst who desired to remain anonymous.
In Modi's earlier meeting with Trump in 2019, it was learnt that he convinced Trump to remain silent regarding the abrogation of Article 370, which drew little international condemnation.
There was no mention of Indian-administered Kashmir in the joint press conference, indicating that the abrogation has since been accepted as a settled issue. For India, the only remaining question is how to integrate the parts of Kashmir under Pakistan into India. Modi has succeeded in legitimising scrapping Article 370 and building a new narrative of integrating Pakistan-administered Kashmir with the Valley.
B Question and the Business Deals
After the fall of Hasina’s government in Bangladesh, Pakistan and Bangladesh strengthened their ties, which upset India. The media led people to believe that the deep state of the US and Pakistan were responsible for Hasina’s fall and exile.
Modi raised concerns about deep state involvement in destabilising Sheikh Hasina's government in Bangladesh with Trump, and the media asked Trump about it. However, Trump dismissed those concerns, leaving it for Modi to address.
Trump prefers not to get embroiled in the affairs of other countries, including Bangladesh and did not give Modi the green light to take action in Dhaka, as some in Indian media have suggested. The new political dispensation in Bangladesh has many friends, including Republicans and those close to Trump.
The American President has established several priorities for his administration, which he expressed openly to the public at home and abroad: achieving favourable tariff rates, avoiding spending outside the U.S., selling military hardware globally, and re-positioning the United States as a global leader.
Trump’s Focus On Business
Trump's primary focus is on business deals, which include pressuring Modi to purchase F-35 jets, oil, gas, and Tesla cars. India has many dependencies on Moscow, from military hardware to cheap oil. Although it has defence deals with France and Israel, India has the edge over other countries in Russia.
Trump wants India to buy its military equipment from the US but without transferring technology or the know-how, whereas Russia has moved its manufacturing defence warfare to India. Will Modi succumb to Trump’s pressure is anybody’s guess?
Modi has become a shrewd politician. Like Trump, his slogan of ‘India first’ reverberates in his country. How the tussle of my country ‘first’ might result in keeping the relations between the two would be watched by the world by holding their breath, or one of them must give up on the ‘first’ to understand the other’s needs better.
We have to wait for which one to give up.
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