Mehr-ur-nisa Rehman*
The legacy of colonial-era border demarcation in South Asia continues to cast a shadow over geopolitics, highlighting how historical territorial decisions can have a lasting impact on politics in the region. The fixation with maintaining secure borders has long dominated national security discussions in South Asia, often overshadowing the potential for joint economic initiatives between neighbouring nations. In this complex landscape, characterised by historical hostilities, territorial disputes and nuclear capabilities, the dream of a peaceful South Asia is on the brink of becoming a reality.
At the Centre of South Asia’s Security Challenges is the unresolved Jammu and Kashmir issue, which further exacerbates the ongoing hostility between India and Pakistan. This unresolved issue increases the risk of nuclear confrontation and creates a precarious environment that affects the entire region.
Apart from open military conflicts, South Asia has to contend with proxy wars and transnational terrorism, which further exacerbates the nuclear threat in the context of inter-state relations. From a realist perspective, the strategic calculus of South Asian states is primarily driven by the relentless pursuit of power and security, with Pakistan’s nuclear weapons playing a central role in shaping its national security strategy.
Pakistan’s pursuit of nuclear weapons arose from the realisation that the country was unable to match India at the conventional level after the 1965 and 1971 wars. This prompted Pakistan to develop nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent, thereby shaping its national security strategy.
Ongoing modernisation efforts are focused on improving the accuracy, reliability and survivability of its nuclear arsenal. The integration of nuclear capabilities is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s approach, striking a balance between proactive deterrence and the prevention of unintended escalation.
In a region as culturally interconnected as South Asia, psychological boundaries also play a crucial role in perpetuating divisions. The narrative of imminent danger, often propagated through nationalist and populist rhetoric, fuels mistrust and animosity between people on both sides of the border. State-sponsored propaganda, media manipulation and discriminatory social practices further contribute to the creation of mental borders.
The intertwining of issues such as caste discrimination, religious fundamentalism, patriarchy and economic inequalities makes the promotion of harmonious co-existence even more difficult. Nationalism can be a powerful political tool, but in the Indian context, its intertwining with these issues complicates the regional landscape and can potentially spiral out of control.
The escalation dynamics of a nuclear conflict
The situation in Jammu and Kashmir has direct and profound implications for regional stability. The historical enmity between India and Pakistan, coupled with their nuclear capabilities, creates an environment in which miscalculations or misunderstandings can lead to a devastating conflict. The entire South Asian region is caught in the crossfire and there is a risk of economic disruption, population displacement and erosion of diplomatic relations.
Since their nuclear tests in 1998, India and Pakistan have experienced five major crises, including the Kargil War in 1999, the Mumbai attacks in 2008, the Pathankot attack in 2016, the Uri attack in 2016 and the Pulwama-Balakot crisis in 2019. The Balakot incident, in which an Indian Air Force MiG-21 Bison was shot down and its pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, was captured, highlighted the potential for a catastrophic escalation.
However, Pakistan’s swift and competent response disproved the assumption that either side could impose its will on the other. Nevertheless, hypothetical scenarios such as the question of what would have happened if the Indian pilot had been killed or had not returned in time emphasise the fragility of the situation. This conflict has set a new dynamic in motion, forcing both nations to carefully reassess and rethink their strategic approaches.
A new Cold War in South Asia?
In the current geopolitical dynamics, South Asia is emerging as a battleground for an escalating Cold War between the United States, China and India. This raises the question of whether the current scenario signifies the outbreak of a Cold War or whether it is the “myth of a new Cold War” Within this complex mosaic of conflicts, achieving peace in South Asia seems challenging but not unattainable.
The turbulent history and diverse challenges of the region do not preclude the possibility of promoting stability through concerted efforts. However, realising a peaceful South Asia requires a departure from the traditional paradigms of power politics and a commitment to addressing the root causes of conflict. It requires a comprehensive approach that goes beyond immediate geopolitical concerns and relies on diplomatic engagement, conflict resolution mechanisms and sustained dialogue to mitigate the risk of a nuclear flashpoint.
The possibility of peace
The possession of nuclear weapons by states is not necessarily an indication of an impending crisis or war. The South Asian nuclear states – China, India and Pakistan – have always viewed their nuclear arsenals as a means of deterrence, emphasising the colossal costs that a conflict would entail. Despite the gravity of their nuclear programmes, the region’s leaders are compelled to ensure the security of their arsenals and implement robust command, control and communication systems to prevent accidents, unauthorised use or theft.
However, the risk of accidents in nuclear systems remains a reality. The misfire of the Indian Brahmos missile in Pakistan last year clearly demonstrated the complexity and the possibility of human or technical error in nuclear systems. It illustrates the catastrophic consequences of even a single nuclear detonation.
The path to lasting peace in South Asia is a daunting challenge that requires a strong commitment to mutual understanding, overcoming deep-rooted conflicts and building a shared future. It is our collective responsibility to transform the dream of a peaceful South Asia from a distant mirage into a tangible reality. This transformation should replace the threat of a nuclear flashpoint with the promise of regional co-operation and prosperity.
As we reflect on South Asia’s turbulent history and the complex challenges it faces, we must recognise that peace is not an idealistic wish, but a goal that can be achieved through unwavering commitment and concerted efforts. The determination of regional actors and the international community to overcome historical grievances, prioritise dialogue over confrontation and invest in joint efforts for inclusive development will ultimately determine whether a peaceful South Asia remains a dream or becomes a reality.
*The writer is the director of the Research & Human Rights Desk at Kashmir Institute of International Relations.
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