In An NC Versus PDP Contest, Agendas Are Identical But Acrimonious Barbs Define The Battle

“Given that almost 90% of the population in this constituency is Koshur, the influence of other ethnic groups on election results will be minimal. This is because there is a widespread popular inclination among people of all ethnic backgrounds to use their voting rights as a means to express their disapproval of the revocation of Article 370, regardless of their specific ethnic identity.”

Latief U Zaman Deva*

The opaqueness of electoral processes conducted in J&K since 1951 is a recognised fact. It was only after the Indira-Abdullah Accord of 1975 that transparency in elections coupled with the neutrality of the executive became the twin distinguishable features enthusing the public at large in electoral politics.

During the Congress (INC) rule, beginning in 1964, select constituencies were earmarked for fair elections primarily for easing out odd official nominees of the party and addressing the concerns of the opposition parties in the country as well as media at the international and national levels about the guided outcomes through brute mass rigging. The Srinagar Parliamentary constituency during the 1971 elections fitted with the enunciated poll strategy and therefore a momentous development having far-reaching consequences in coming years on the State’s political spectrum.

At the beckoning of Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, incarcerated in Delhi, Shameem Ahmed Shameem, an independent MLA from Shopian (1967) contested in the Srinagar parliamentary elections in 1971. He trounced Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, by obtaining 61.78% votes, which was a remarkable achievement as he defeated the candidate from the ruling party and made the first exception to this established generality of the times.

If Pandit Nehru were alive in 1971, he would have had to reconsider his characterization of Kashmiris as “tamable comfort lovers.” Despite being praised as the modern builder of the state and a saviour for the downtrodden, malnourished, and impoverished masses, Nehru would have had to acknowledge Kashmiris’ assertion in punishing Bakshi without mercy for his betrayal in 1953.

The integrationists and opponents of the Plebiscite Front aligned with Bakshi, despite their differing political ideologies, but ultimately had to accept defeat. This unexpected alliance between opposing ideological factions was evident again during the 1977 Parliament elections, where Begum Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, as the candidate of the revived National Conference (NC), won with 67.73% of the valid votes cast.

Ever since the constituency was established in 1967, the National Conference has won its elections ten times, INC and its supported candidate twice and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) once.  The outcomes of elections held since 1998 are in Table 1.

Table 1

 Impact of delimitation & interplay of ethnicities

The recent orders of the Election Commission of India changing the polling date from 7^th May in 3^rd phase to 27^th May 5^th phase for the Parliamentary constituency Anantnag reaffirms the skeptics about the irrational and ill-intentioned delimitation of the Parliamentary constituencies in J&K which was resorted to despite freeze imposed on fresh delimitation till 2026 in rest of the country under the 84th Amendment Act 2001 of the Indian Constitution.

As per the delimitation of 2022, the assembly segments of Beerwah and Budgam in Budgam district were excluded from the parliamentary constituency of Srinagar.  Instead, all four assembly segments of district Pulwama and one assembly segments of Shopian district were included in Srinagar constituency, thereby adding over 5 lakh voters to the otherwise dominantly urban constituency.

Given that almost 90% of the population in this constituency is Koshur, the influence of other ethnic groups on election results will be minimal. This is because there is a widespread popular inclination among people of all ethnic backgrounds to use their voting rights as a means to express their disapproval of the revocation of Article 370, regardless of their specific ethnic identity.

The ethnic profile of the constituency is in Table 2.

Table 2

× 2 % have during the census 2011 returned their mother tongues as are generally spoken outside J&K.

××Assembly segments

Voter–Projected population (PP) ratio

In all of Jammu and Kashmir, the voter-projected population (PP) ratio is the lowest in Ganderbal at 45.87, followed by Srinagar and Budgam at 47.67 & 48.77 respectively. Against the dismal position in these three districts, Jammu has attained 70.94, Samba 66.26, Kathua 63.72, Kulgam 63.64, Baramulla 61.78 and Bandipora 61.25. The matrix in the remaining districts ranges between 52.80 to 59.25 %. The analysis of Anantnag- Rajouri and Baramulla–Kupwara Constituencies has its base on UT level Decadal Growth Rate of 23.70 (2011-21) against District Decadal Growth Rates (DDGRs) invoked in Parliamentary constituencies of Udhampur-Doda, Jammu-Samba and Srinagar-Pulwama

This suggests that the index of the first two constituencies will further deteriorate if their respective DDGRs are applied.

Assuming census data as sacrosanct, one can imagine how lakhs of eligible persons have been deprived of their voting rights unless the census data itself suffers from inaccuracies. Going by the size of the population covered under the Public Distribution System and the number of beneficiaries under various centrally sponsored schemes and programmes, the lapses by public servants can’t be ruled out. They seem to have perfunctorily dealt with the campaign initiated by Election Commission of India for the registration of left-out eligible persons as voters.

It is late in the day to seek redressal of the mismatch, especially when we are halfway through the elections, but this should be taken up on a priority after the Constitution of the 18^th Lok Sabha. It is important to diagnose the causes attributable to glaring discrepancies and make suitable rectifications.

Table 3

Table 3 shows the Voter-Projected Population Ratio

Two ideal candidates

Regional Parties are likely to face existential threats in coming years, more so during BJP rule unless in the backdrop of de-operationalization of Article 370 they come out with a realistic political road map for a review of the working of the Constitution of India. The Republic of India in recent years has evolved into a highly centralised set up. A country entrenched in ethnic, linguistic and political diversities can hardly afford to follow the “one size fits all” doctrine.

The NC and PDP candidates in the fray are two sides of the same coin whose parties are unrelentingly centrifugal in so far as constitutionally sanctified empowerment of federating units is concerned. Both are publicly acknowledged for their impeccable integrity, rated as thinkers and visionaries with transparent and unambiguous political ideologies, and linked to popular achievable aspirations.

Agha Ruhullah became a beloved figure for thousands of people due to the narrative he presented in response to the unilateral revocation of the special status enjoyed by Jammu and Kashmir until August 5, 2019. At times, there were concerns about whether he would take decisive action. His public life, involvement in religious, social, and political discussions, as well as his role as a Minister, have made him popular among younger generations.

On the other hand, Wahid ur Rehman Para is known as a skilled strategist and a very likable person. He is gifted with eloquence and is a staunch advocate of Kashmiri sub-nationalism.

“People in Kashmir are suppressed, living under fear”: Interview with Waheed Parra, PDP, Srinagar

The top leaders of both candidates are clear and direct in criticizing the communal agenda of the BJP in general and the regrettable statements made by the Prime Minister specifically targeting Muslims. However, lower down the hierarchy, especially at the middle management level in both parties, the focus is more on the individual candidates rather than discussing the broader political dynamics of constitutional and socio-economic issues.

In contrast to the past thirty years, both young and old are determined to vote this time, despite initially feeling discouraged by disunity among regional and secular parties.

In downtown and its outskirts, which are strongholds of the NC, bolstered by the historic Farooq (Abdullah-Mirwaiz) amity of 1983 and now supported wholeheartedly by active supporters of the Aghas, there is a one-sided battle against opponents who are thinly spread and lack credible local support. However, beyond this region, in areas like Pulwama, Budgam, and Ganderbal districts, the contest is more noticeable.

A visible wave seems to be sweeping Srinagar core with votaries of the ‘Plough’ in all sections of the society. However, outside the limits of Srinagar Municipal Corporation, the crowds out on the streets are enjoying, what Z.A. Bhutto said, “democratic confusion of Indian democracy”. However, people here are circumspect, in general, about the party or candidate they would vote for.

There’s a new trend emerging where similar groups are seen attending meetings of rival candidates, which is a departure from the usual scenario in urban areas and past instances where they would avoid participating in activities of political parties or candidates they didn’t support.

Issues at Stake in Kashmir

Overall, the people have distanced from the electoral issues in mainland India and are instead converting the occasion into a referendum on the revocation of special status and the split of the erstwhile State into two entities. The gains in one territory for a party are set off by the strong position of another party in another territory or area but as a whole, it is NC vs PDP.

The DPAP, Apni Party, and Peoples Conference (PC) are also deeply engaged in current electoral politics, primarily assessing the potential gains they expect to receive individually. This evaluation serves as a preliminary step in determining the distribution of seats among the designated alliance partners for the upcoming Assembly elections under the leadership of Ghulam Nabi Azad.

The outcome and the proportion of valid votes garnered by the Apni Party in the Srinagar parliamentary constituency will determine whether, during the 2014-15 Assembly elections, its leaders and other senior figures had personal vote banks or whether their success was influenced by both positive and negative votes for the PDP.

The PDP was portrayed by its top leadership as the heir to the political legacy of Kashmiryat, which envisions a sovereign state government within the confines of the constitution, along with détente between India and Pakistan, seen as crucial for ending the prevailing uncertainty.

Many contemporary political activists often harbor illusions upon being elected, disregarding the intricate interplay between Kashmiri political sentiments and sub-nationalism, which often revolve around charismatic leaders.

In the beginning of the election campaign, the 52100 migrant voters had exhibited a tremendous amount of interest in the elections but the non-fielding of candidates by the BJP has not gone down well with them. The contestants particularly political parties should make public their visions about the temporary rehabilitation of migrants at their existing places of domicile in Jammu province, as well as spell out an Action Plan for their gradual return and permanent rehabilitation to their native places.

*The author is IAS (Retd) & former Chairman J&K Public Service Commission.

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