The parliamentary constituency comprises 11 segments from South Kashmir and 7 from Jammu, signaling massive restructuring with no common electoral history. Is 53% polling up from 19% or down from 80%?
SRINAGAR: The Election Commission’s (EC) claim that Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha constituency has “shattered” the voter turnout record with 53% of voters exercising their franchise, calling it the highest in 35 years is misleading.
While 53% polling in the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituency is being deemed “historic”, the fact is that the constituency which was created by clubbing two distinct regions from the two provinces of Kashmir and Jammu has gone to the polls for the first time.
After 2022 delimitation, the constituency comprises of a total of 18 assembly segments, including 11 from South Kashmir and 7 from Rajouri-Poonch in Jammu’s Pir Panjal area.
The 2022 delimitation has changed the electoral boundaries and reshaped the maps of most of the assembly and parliamentary constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir.
The biggest change, however, has been impacted in Anantnag-Rajouri constituency where two culturally, linguistically and geographically distinct regions – connected only by the fair-weather Mughal Road were brought together.
Earlier, Rajouri and Poonch districts were part of the Jammu-Poonch constituency. Barring some parts of southern Rajouri like Sunderbani and Kalakote, they are now part of the Anantnag constituency.
The South Kashmir constituency earlier included Anantnag, Pulwama, and Shopian. Pulwama and parts of Shopian are now clubbed with the Srinagar constituency.
| Name of Constituency | Total Electorate | Polling Percentage | Voter Turnout (Estimated) |
| Budhal | 93609 | 67% | 62728 |
| Mendhar | 108305 | 66.08% | 71564 |
| Nowshera | 85569 | 65.47% | 56035 |
| Poonch Haveli | 128069 | 67.35% | 86231 |
| Rajouri | 88859 | 67.18% | 59715 |
| Surankot | 112547 | 68.36% | 76954 |
| Thanna Mandi | 121684 | 66.20% | 80575 |
Total Polling percentage in Rajouri-Poonch segments: 66.27%
So, at 53%, is it a ‘historic’ increase or a ‘dip in voter turnout?
As per the Election Commission’s data released at the end of May 25, the Anantnag-Rajouri constituency witnessed 53% polling.
However, the aggregate polling percentage in the 11 segments in the Kashmir region is 44.92 percent. In the 8 assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch border districts, it is as high as 66.27%.
At 44.92%, the polling in Anantnag is slightly less than it was in 1996, when 45% electorate exercised their vote.
In Anantnag, the polling percentage in 1989 was 5.07%. 45% of votes were polled in 1996, 33.3% in 1998, 18% in 1999, 23% in 2004, 31% in 2009, 31% in 2014, 19% in 2019.
In the post-insurgency era, voter turnouts were impacted across the erstwhile state in the last three decades. The impact was far more severe in the Valley, which witnessed an overall polling of 5 percent in 1989 and about 21 percent in 2019. The polling percentages varied from election to election in the two decades spanning these years.
The rise and fall of the voter outcomes is attributed to several reasons. In 1996 and 1998, the polling was held amidst allegations of mass-scale coercion. From 1998 to 2014, there was a steady but slow increase in voter turnout in every election, which is attributed to the declining insurgency. A massive dip in voter turnout was witnessed in 2019 amidst increasing public disenchantment due to PDP’s alliance with the BJP and the 2016 street protests that led to massive casualties in firing and pellet gun injuries.
Table
| Name of Constituency | Electorate | Percentage of Votes Polled | Voter Turnout (Calculated on basis of %age) |
| Anantnag | 61199 | 33.48% | 20481 |
| Anantnag west | 124118 | 36.09% | 44781 |
| DH Pora | 98078 | 55.00% | 53943 |
| Devsar | 110981 | 44.00% | 48832 |
| Dooru | 116120 | 46.00% | 53415 |
| Kokernag (ST) | 91486 | 52.00% | 47573 |
| Kulgam | 116648 | 32.00% | 37327 |
| Pahalgam | 70250 | 56.00% | 39340 |
| Shangus – Anantnag East | 100448 | 43.00% | 43193 |
| Srigufawara – Bijbehara | 101409 | 43.00% | 43606 |
| Zainapora | 107197 | 40.00% | 42879 |
Total voting percentage in Anantnag-South Kashmir is 44.92%
Since 1989, the voter turnout in Jammu also dipped considerably. In 1989, the Jammu-Poonch constituency (which included the 7 segments from Rajouri and Poonch now clubbed with Anantnag) registered a voter turnout of 56.89%. It was 48.2% in 1996, 54.72% in 1998, 46.8% in 1999, 44.4% in 2004, 49% in 2009, 67.8% in 2014 and 80.2% in 2019.
Post-1989, the cascading rise and drop of voter turnout in Jammu-Poonch corresponds with that of South Kashmir between 1996 and 2014. Thereafter, while the polling percentage drastically dropped in Kashmir, it inversely rose in 2019.
A comparison of the May 25 voter outcome with the past polling percentages of Anantnag parliamentary constituency is misleading. In 2014 and 2019, while the polling percentage in Jammu-Poonch was 67.8% and 80.2%, and in Anantnag it was 31% and 19% respectively. Polling in all segments of Jammu-Poonch was uniformly high in both years.
In 2024, the estimated polling percentage in 11 segments of Anantnag is calculated at 44. 92% and 7 segments of Rajouri-Poonch at 66.27%. This reflects a huge imbalance of almost 22%.
Fall and the Rise: Voter turnout arc reflects the political shifts in Jammu & Kashmir
Voters in the seven assembly segments of Rajouri-Poonch comprise 738642 (40.21%) of the total electorate of 1836576 in this parliamentary constituency. Based on the Election Commission’s limited data of estimated percentages, the overall voter turnout and polling percentage in Rajouri-Poonch can be calculated to be 493,802 and 66.27% respectively.
In 2019, if the polling percentage in these segments was nearly 80%, how can 53% voter turnout be a ‘historic’ rise?
In the other 11 segments, the voter size is 1097934 (almost 60%) of the total electorate in the parliamentary constituency. The voter turnout in these segments can be roughly calculated to be 44.92%. This is an improvement from the past two elections of 2014 (31%) and 2019 (19%).
However, it is still not historic as Anantnag witnessed 45 percent voter turnout in 1996.
https://kashmirtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/2505202408_EC_Phase-VI_Turnout.pdf
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