Jammu Parliamentary Constituency: Delimitation Will Impact The Outcome

“Even as the territorial contours of the new constituency exclude the Pir Panjal, historical patterns are instructive.”

Latief U Zaman Deva*

Before March 14, 2022, the Jammu Parliamentary Constituency (JPC) comprised Jammu, Samba, Poonch and Rajouri Districts.

Since its creation in 1962, eight winners were from Dogra community. A Gujjar from Rajouri enjoyed a truncated term from 2002 to 2004 after a by-poll due to the death of the sitting MP, Vaid Vishnu Dutt. Of all the contests in this constituency, those of 1977, 1984 and 2019 have been momentous for reasons specific to each occasion.

After the Indira-Abdullah Accord in 1975, the revived J&K National Conference (NC) and All India Congress (INC) entered into an electoral alliance for parliamentary elections in 1977 held under the shadow of an unwarranted emergency imposed by the Congress regime.

Jammu constituency was allocated to NC which fielded the legendary intellectual, Balraj Puri, its provincial president, Sheikh Ab Rehman, a grassroots level risen nationalist, nominated by Janata Party – a conglomerate of Opposition Parties, which included socialist groups and the Jan Sangh, precursor to Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP).

However, the local unit of the Jan Sangh in Jammu didn’t reconcile with the decision of the Central Parliamentary Board and defied the high command by fielding Thakur Baldev Singh as an independent candidate. The non-transfer of the Congress vote to its ally (NC) and the energetic campaign of the local unit of Jan Sangh led to the victory of Baldev Singh, who won by a margin of 27939 votes against the NC candidate. The segment-wise data established the spectacular support the latter had gotten from Pir Panjal and other areas with the presence of the non-Dogra population.

During the 1984 elections, the regional and sub-regional outcomes corroborated with the trends set up in the 1977 elections with the difference that this time around INC replaced the BJP (erstwhile Jan Sangh) primarily due to strong sympathy wave for Rajiv Gandhi after the assassination of Indira Gandhi but with least impact on the traditional base of NC.

The streaks were once again manifested in the 2019 elections when the Congress candidate supported by NC, PDP and CPI(M) obtained 3,69,472 votes from Pir Panjal against 1,52,507 for the BJP and an additional 1,85,719 votes, mostly from non-Dogras in Jammu and Samba districts.

The electoral outcomes from 1996 to 2019 elections are in Table 01 below:

Election year	Winner	Votes & %	Runner	Votes
1996	INC	194228/13.13%	BJP	147495
1998	BJP	336472/22.75%	NC	208571
1999	BJP	289412/19.57%	NC	147393
2004	INC	319994/21.64%	BJP	302426
2009	INC	382092/45.34%	BJP	260568
2014	BJP	619995/49.5%	INC	362715
2019	BJP	858066/58%	INC	555191

Tryst for support

The BJP, aware of the vulnerability of losing control of the Jammu parliamentary constituency without a sustained wave or due to potential ST status for the Pahari ethnic group, ensured its grip through strategic manoeuvring. Despite ethnic and geographical disparities, the inclusion of Pir Panchal districts in the Anantnag constituency and the subsequent delimitation defied conventional norms. The reconfigured JPC now encompasses Jammu, Samba, Reasi, Kalakot, and Sunderbani Assembly constituencies from Rajouri District.

The ethnic profile of the new Jammu Parliamentary Constituency is in Table 02:  

District	Koshur	Dogras	Gujjar & Bakerwal	Pahari	Punjabi
Jammu	94649	1084040	59048	5738	123874
Samba	993	269559	13766	1980	15799
Reasi	59039	137710	77674	20889	3545
Rajouri(Kalakot- Sunderbani As)	–	86879	36322	36322
Total	154681/ 7.39%	1577631/ 75.45%	186810/ 8.93%	28607/ 1.36%	143218@ 6.84%

Note. During the Census 2011, 8 % have returned their mother tongues prevalent and spoken outside J&K.

Voter-projected population ratio

District	Population Census (2011)	Distt Decadal Growth Rate (2001-2011)	Projected population	No of Voters (2024)	Ratio of PP & No of Voters
Jammu	1435309*	12.74	1677439	1190099	70.94
Samba	318898	17.01	391149	259198	66.26
Reasi	314667	27.04	429511	235262	54.77
Rajouri (Kalakot- Sunderbani )	123201	32.93	178371	96986	54.37
Total	2192075		2676470	1781545	66.56

* This excludes 94649 Migrants, who are registered as Voters in their native Assembly Constituencies in Kashmir Division.

Voter-projected population ratio and other anomalies

A disturbing feature of the mismatched ratio of the projected population and number of voters is noticeable.

Against the national average of 60%, there are districts in J&K returning as high as 65 to 71% while in the majority of the districts, the ratio is between 50 to 54 %. The issue lies either with the complicity of voter registration staff, societal indifference towards voter registration, or errors in the Census 2011 data compilation.

It’s crucial to address this mismatch to prevent allegations of underage voting and disenfranchisement of eligible voters. The Election Commission of India and the Chief Electoral Officer of J&K should engage with this matter post the 18th Parliament elections to mitigate these challenges in the world’s largest electoral event in J&K.

Similarly, the recent delimitation of assembly and parliamentary constituencies has created imbalances. In Jammu province’s plains, there are three districts with populations of 1,29,996, 1,02,739, and 1,06,299 respectively, compared to the UT average of 1,36,300 per constituency. This results in deficits of 4.625%, 24.623%, and 22.011% respectively. Poonch and Ramban districts have not gained seats, with average constituency populations of 1,58,945 and 1,41,856 respectively, despite being similarly situated – in proximity to the borders. This underscores the major concern over adopting inconsistent criteria for delimiting Parliamentary and Assembly constituencies is a major concern.

As an aside, the aligning of Rajouri-Poonch with Anantnag does not appear to have benefitted the BJP. The Anantnag-Rajouri Parliamentary constituency sees a surprising NC-PDP showdown after BJP’s exit from Kashmir valley. BJP’s withdrawal suggests their recognition that the Dogra-Pahari alliance lacks significant electoral support. BJP’s departure from Kashmir also reflects their image-building strategy, potentially alienating Muslim representation.

Electoral discourse

After the exclusion of Pir Panjal, Jammu Parliamentary Constituency is by now predominantly Hindu who constitute 80% of its population. Earlier one of the election planks related to maintaining its Hindu character and related election strategies were aimed at preventing the constituency from falling in the Muslim basket. This is hardly relevant now.

Over the past decade, the BJP government’s efforts in J&K have primarily focused on Jammu, with developments like IIM, IIT, IIMC, Craft Centre, AIIMS, and Ayurvedic University. This has transformed Jammu into a knowledge hub and headquarters for central government departments, institutions, and corporate entities. Despite initial impacts on tourism and trade due to direct railway traffic to Katra, the city’s emergence as a knowledge hub and the addition of the Tirupati Balaji temple are gradually reversing these effects.

Livelihood challenges, chronic poverty, financial disparities, inflation, reduced purchasing power among vulnerable groups, socio-cultural tensions, institutional politicisation, federal structure erosion, dissent intolerance, and opposition demonization are national election concerns. However, their impact on the constituency’s political discourse remains minimal. Congress, expected to campaign aggressively, appears to be reacting rather than leading.

Maharaja Gulab Singh established the J&K State through annexation and the Treaty of Amritsar. However, on August 5, 2019, Article 370 was revoked, and the state was bifurcated into two union territories, erasing the Dogra legacy. BJP could have faced criticism for diminishing the state’s status, potentially erasing Dogra pride and identity. But that is not happening.

Due to a lack of local flavour, the Congress tirade of poor governance against the Narendra Modi-led BJP government has not enthused the electorate, by and large, to shift their preferences in urban Jammu. In rural areas, voters seem to be notionally susceptible to government policies driving inflation and poverty.

The urban-rural fault lines may eventually be of little significance in the face of the demographic composition, size of the displaced population from Pakistan Administered Kashmir, the magnitude of the urban population, and the existing support base of the RSS and other affiliated organisations in this constituency.

*The author is IAS (Retd) & former Chairman J&KPSC.

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