Fall and the Rise: Voter turnout arc reflects the political shifts in J&K

As Kashmir goes to the polls, beginning May 13, the enthusiasm on the streets at the election rallies, and the robust campaigning in the real and the virtual world, suggests a reasonable turnout of voters, unlike the 2019 parliamentary elections when the overall percentage in the Valley was less than 19%, the lowest in Anantnag at 8.9%.

Voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir, particularly in the Valley, has had an interesting trajectory in the recent decades since the outbreak of insurgency. It is intrinsically linked to the many political developments and shifts in the region as well as in the rest of the state.

In most parliamentary elections in Kashmir province after militancy, the voter turnout has ranged between 18% and 31% approximately.

However, there are two exceptions – 1989 when only 5 percent votes were polled and 1996 when the Valley registered a total of 45% polling amidst large-scale allegations of coercive voting.

The first elections during insurgency that were held under the shadow of guns in 1989 recorded a voter turnout of only 5-6 percent. The only candidate, of the National Conference, in the fray from Srinagar won the election unopposed.

When Indian General elections were held in 1991, no polls were held in Jammu and Kashmir. The state remained unrepresented in the parliament.

This table represents the voter turnout percentages for parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir from 1984 to 2019. (All data in this article is sourced from India Votes and Windows.Net)

Elections and Voter Turnout in 1996

In 1996, when India was under immense international pressure over allegations of gross violation of human rights and lack of democratic institutions, voter turnout in Kashmir jumped to 45% – 50.2% in Anantnag, 46.7% in Baramulla and 40.9 percent in Srinagar.

Interestingly, the overall polling in Jammu and Kashmir – including the three parliamentary constituencies of Jammu-Poonch, Udhampur and Ladakh – was 49%. While voter turn-out in Ladakh was 80%, in the two constituencies of Jammu province it was 48.2% and 53.3% respectively.

The difference in overall polling percentages between Kashmir and Jammu provinces was narrow despite the election boycott calls by militant groups in the Valley and the boycott of the elections by the National Conference.

The sudden spike in the voter turnout, from 5 to 45 between 1989 and 1996 was neither a reflection of the enthusiasm of the voters, nor an assertion of their will. It was largely a farce.

The 1996 parliamentary elections in Kashmir, the first since 1989, were cited by the Indian government as progress towards democracy after decades of separatist insurgency in Kashmir.

However, reports of Indian security forces physically forcing people to vote and threatening reprisals for boycotting the polls called for by militant groups are well documented in the news reports in the national and international media.

This table represents the voter turnout percentages in parliamentary elections for the regions of Kashmir, Jammu Province, and Ladakh from 1984 to 2019.

Allegations of Coercion, Violations

Many raised concerns about coercive polling and manipulating elections with handpicked candidates like Javed Ahmed Shah, who happened to be Ikhwanis – a term widely used for surrendered militants who were co-opted by the security forces. The former insurgents were accused of continuing egregious human rights violations with impunity due to alleged government backing.

News reports recorded evidence of coerced voting by security forces rounding up villagers at gunpoint on polling day.

“Six rifle-toting soldiers were seen swinging batons at a dozen men along National Highway 1A and herding them from their roadside village, Delina, toward a polling place in a nearby school. The soldiers, who wore no insignia on their camouflage uniforms, blew whistles and waved the batons at journalists who stopped their cars and got out,” reported Washington Post.

The India Today reported, “Many residents who were forced to go to the polling booths said that security men had threatened that those who did not vote would never be allowed to open their shops again. And as more and more groups of frightened, fear-stricken people made their way towards the polling stations, it was clear that the elections after a violence-punctuated gap of seven years, were being held in the shadow of the gun.”

While sections of the national media reported similar ground realities, at least one leading newspaper did not publish the dispatches of a reporter, who had been especially flown in from Delhi to cover the elections from ground zero. It relied on news agencies, quoting only the polling statistics.

Reporting from Baramulla and Kupwara in 1996, this reporter witnessed serpentine queues outside booths in Kupwara and Baramulla. Terror-stricken minors lined up among the forcibly brought people and pleaded with the election officers to mark their fingers even if they could not vote. The soldiers had woken them up in the morning and herded them to the polling booths, warning reprisal against those who did not have the indelible mark on their fingers. Panic-stricken teenagers, who were the most vulnerable, joined the queues.

Several human rights groups also documented the human rights abuse around the 1996 elections.

The Amnesty International, in a detailed report, said that human rights defenders, journalists, and political leaders were particularly targeted before the elections. It cited the case of killing of the lawyer Jalil Andrabi after he was allegedly abducted by army personnel, and the killing of journalist Ghulam Rasool Sheikh.

It also mentioned that during the elections, Indian army, paramilitary groups, and renegade militias threatening, intimidated and coerced civilians to participate in voting.

This table represents the constituency-wise voter turnout percentages in parliamentary elections for the constituencies of Anantnag, Baramulla, and Srinagar in the Kashmir Province from 1984 to 2019.

Elections in 1999 and 2004

The allegations of coercive voting cropped up dominantly in the subsequent assembly elections that year but dropped considerably in the 1998 parliamentary elections. So, did the polling percentage.

In 1998, overall voter turnout in Jammu and Kashmir was 44.21% and in Kashmir Valley, it was down to 33.3%

Amidst, decreasing allegations of coercive polling, from 45% polling in the Valley in 1996, voter turnout was down to 18% in 1999. The polling percentage in Udhampur constituency, which included the militancy-impacted Chenab Valley and Gool region, also dropped from 53% to 39%. In Jammu-Poonch, the voter turnout was 46%, registering a drop of 2 percent from the 1996 elections.

After 1999, the mainstream political parties were able to regain some ground that had been lost in the years of militancy and the Peoples’ Democratic Party became another formidable force to reckon with. The following decade also coincided with the peace process between India and Pakistan, reviving hopes for a dialogue and inclusion of Kashmiris on the negotiating table.

The voting percentage also gradually picked up, starting from the parliamentary polls in 2004. In Jammu-Poonch, while the voter turnout further dropped to 44.4 percent, in the Udhampur-Doda constituency, 45.1% of voters polled their votes. Kashmir also witnessed an overall marginal increase from 18% (in the previous elections) to 23% – 14.7% in Anantnag, 35.5% in Baramulla and 18.6% in Srinagar.

This was the first Parliamentary elections that PDP contested, almost two years after it formed a coalition government with the Congress, and Mehbooba Mufti won the election from Anantnag.

Regional issues increasingly became the flavour of the political narrative in these years and rejuvenated the voters at the grassroots, impacting the voter turnout.

https://kashmirtimes.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/Graphic.pdf Kashmir and Jammu contrast post-2014

In 2009 and 2014, while the voter turnout in Kashmir Valley went up to around 31%, the overall polling percentage in Jammu and Kashmir was 39.7% and 49.5% respectively. While Jammu’s two constituencies recorded voter turnout of 49% and 44.9% in 2009, they shot up to 67.8% and 69.9% in 2014 as the BJP-Modi wave from the Indian mainland began to impact the province.

In 2019, the Modi wave was more pronounced when Jammu-Poonch recorded an unprecedented voter turnout of over 80% and Udhampur-Doda 79.7%. However, in the Valley, after the PDP’s alliance with the BJP in 2014 and the killings of youth by bullets and pellet guns during street protests, the locals were largely disenchanted by electoral politics.

The voter turnout dropped to a dismal 19% with Anantnag registering as low as 8.98% polling.

Interestingly, the arc of voter turnout in parliamentary elections reveals that there was an overall drop in voter turnout across the erstwhile state, post-militancy. Though this was more pronounced in Kashmir, the voter disinterest did not escape the Jammu region either, only to pick up in 2014. Only Ladakh remained unaffected.

The voting percentages in the elections before 1989 in all constituencies were by and large uniform. However, voter turnout was usually slightly higher in Kashmir Valley as the political narratives remained largely Kashmir-dominated.

For instance, the 1984 parliamentary elections witnessed a voter turnout of 70%, 61%, and 73% in Anantnag, Baramulla, and Srinagar, whereas in Jammu and Udhampur it stood at 71% and 55% respectively. The overall voter turnout was 66.4% but in Jammu province, it stood at 63% as compared to 68% in Kashmir province.

This table represents the constituency-wise voter turnout percentages in parliamentary elections for the constituencies of Jammu-Poonch and Udhampur-Doda in the Jammu Province from 1984 to 2019.

Some Trends

In the three decades since militancy, more votes were polled in Baramulla constituency with heavy polling trends in the district of Kupwara which is more militarized and a border zone.

When comparing the three regions, Ladakh consistently shows the highest voter turnout, followed by Jammu province and then Kashmir. This reflects the differing levels of political stability, security conditions, and public trust in the electoral process across the regions.

Kashmir has shown a highly volatile voter turnout over the years. The turnout was relatively high in 1984 but plummeted dramatically in 1989, due to increased political instability and violence. There are fluctuations in subsequent years, with a general trend of low turnout, reflecting the ongoing conflict.

Post 1989, the polling percentage in Jammu has been far higher but has followed a similar corresponding arc till 2009. While in Kashmir, in the next elections of 2014, the voter turnout remained static and plummeted in 2019, in Jammu, it sharply rose after 2009.

Jammu’s different trend is a reflection of the improved security situation at the borders and the hinterland in the preceding years, comparative peace and the influence of the national political landscape on the region.

Compared to Kashmir and Jammu, Ladakh has been the most peaceful with fewer instances of political violence. This stability is a crucial factor that contributes to consistently high voter turnout. Besides, strong community cohesion in Ladakh, driven by a sense of shared cultural and regional identity, also results in higher political participation.

What’s at stake in 2024

This year, while voter turnout in Jammu has fallen considerably from a near 80% in both constituencies, though with new maps, to 72% and 68% in Jammu and Doda respectively, the level of enthusiasm in Kashmir will be put to the test on May 13 (Srinagar), May 20 (Baramulla) and May 25 (Anantnag-Poonch).

The key players are not just navigating the new electoral map, which has for the first time clubbed areas from Jammu province with areas from Kashmir province to carve out a new constituency, but also the political map of Jammu and Kashmir – truncated and demoted.

The new realities, amidst the absence of a boycott call, have pushed the development and local issues to the sidelines as much as they have subdued promises of autonomy, self-rule, and dialogue.

In an election where the BJP has shied away from contesting, despite making big claims about normalcy and taking popular decisions in Jammu and Kashmir, what has taken over instead is the narrative of defeating the actions and policies of the BJP government since 2019. At least, the Valley is reverberating with its echoes.

For many in the Valley, which has been silenced under repressive actions, even though they are disappointed by the Indian democracy, this is finally an opportunity to give voice to their sentiments through vote.

In 1996, when masses were coerced and herded out to the booths, many of them said that they would stamp invalid votes or leave their ballot papers blank. A young teenager in the queue was asked who he’d vote for, and he promptly replied, “Bae chus Neutral” (I am neutral).

If voters come out in droves this election, it won’t be a ‘neutral vote’.

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