Mubashir Naik*
DODA: Amidst a changed landscape as Jammu and Kashmir braces for elections after more than a decade, Chenab Valley, nestled in the western part of Jammu province, with eight constituencies, comprising about 9 percent of Jammu and Kashmir’s 90-member legislative assembly, is likely to play a significant game-changing role.
The Chenab Valley comprises three districts – Doda, Kishtwar, and Ramban – which collectively hold eight assembly seats. These constituencies are scheduled to go to the polls in Phase I on September 18th.
Its political significance far outweighs its numerical representation in a political landscape marked by fragmentation and a diversity of players. These eight seats could prove pivotal in determining the formation of the next government.
The region’s importance is magnified by the current political climate in J&K, where no single party is likely to secure an outright majority. In this scenario, even a small bloc of seats can tip the scales of power, with ripple effects far beyond its geographical boundaries.
The Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) is likely to benefit from two major factors – delimitation of constituencies and inherent weaknesses of its opponents but may be in for unpleasant surprises.
Reshaped Boundaries
The political landscape of Chenab Valley has undergone notable changes, with two new constituencies, Doda West and Padder-Nagseni, being added to the electoral map, increasing the region’s tally of seats from six to eight.
The newly created Paddar constituency is fully Hindu-dominated and created with nearly 40-50,000 voters. A village adjacent to Kishtwar town, where a BJP leader from Kishtwar has a strong presence, has been added to Paddar to make it a secure seat.
Before the delimitation, all the six constituencies in the Chenab Valley were Muslim majority but at least three of them including the newly carved Doda West and Padder-Nagseni, as well as Kishtwar, have now been turned into Hindu majority constituencies.
The Hindu-dominated areas of the old Inderwal constituency, including Mulchiter and the Kuntawara belt, have been added to Kishtwar, transforming the Muslim-majority Kishtwar constituency into a Hindu majority. First, there were two constituencies in the Kishtwar district and both were Muslim majority and now Kishtwar has three constituencies in total, out of which only one has a Muslim majority.
Doda West constituency is a similar experiment of gerrymandering of boundaries that consolidates the Hindu vote bank in favour of the BJP. Three of the eight seats in the region now have a Hindu majority. However, a division of anti-BJP votes gives the BJP an upper hand in some seats including Bhaderwah.
The redistricting of the boundaries across the Union Territory has created more Hindu majority constituencies. The process of delimitation was cricitised for disregarding prime factors like population and considering secondary factors when it gave six additional seats to the Jammu region and one to Kashmir Valley. This increased the number of seats in the Jammu region from 37 to 43 and in the Kashmir region from 46 to 47.
This also means that 43.8 percent of the UT’s population in Jammu will now vote in 47.8% of the seats, while 56.2 percent of voters in Kashmir will vote in the remaining 52.2 percent.
Earlier Kashmir’s 56 percent voters had 55.4 percent of seats, while Jammu’s 43.8 percent voters held 44.5 percent seats.
With Muslim majority seats converted into Hindu majority, the Chenab Valley is a major epicentre of the reshaping of the boundaries.
Faltering NC-Cong Alliance
This reconfiguration coupled with the Bhartiya Janta Party’s ambitions and the partial absence of the National Conference-Congress alliance in the region in a fragmented political sphere with national parties, regional powerhouses, and emerging local forces all vying for influence may give it a pivotal role to play in the formation of the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.
The National Conference and Congress, which are contesting the elections in alliance have fielded their separate candidates in five constituencies including three in the Chenab Valley – Banihal, Doda (East) and Bhaderwah, giving an added advantage to the BJP which banks on a consolidation of Hindu votes and division of the Muslim votes.
The last assembly elections, held in 2014, saw the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) emerge as a strong contender in the region, securing four out of six seats: Kishtwar, Ramban, Bhaderwah, and Doda. The Congress, meanwhile, clinched victories in Banihal and Inderwal.
This electoral history coupled with a changed landscape sets the stage for an intriguing contest in the upcoming polls.
Though the odds are in BJP’s favour, other compelling factors may throw a spanner on the party’s ambitions in the region. An in-depth understanding of the region necessitates a constituency-wise analysis.
Doda (East)
Doda East stands as the oldest constituency in the region and is part of a trio of assembly seats alongside Doda West and Bhaderwah. The political battleground here is marked by the presence of seasoned politicians and emerging contenders.
Two former ministers, Khalid Najeeb Suharwardy of the National Conference (NC) and Abdul Majid Wani of the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP), are at the forefront of this electoral contest.
The constituency has witnessed a shifting political landscape over the years. The National Conference secured a victory in 1997, followed by Wani’s consecutive wins in 2002 and 2008. The BJP made inroads in 2014, altering the political equation. The current election sees a diverse array of candidates, including BJP’s Gajay Singh Rana, Congress nominee Riaz Ahmad, PDP’s Mansoor Ahmad Batt, and AAP’s Mehraj Malik.
Mehraj Malik from the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), who has significant support for advocating aggressive accountability of government officials, may also garner a fair amount of votes.
With approximately 100,000 voters, the BJP holds about a quarter of the vote share. Despite fielding a relatively lesser-known candidate in Gajay Singh Rana, the party is optimistic about capitalizing on the division of anti-BJP votes.
However, the combined strength of Suharwardy, Wani, and Malik, each commanding a significant voter base, makes it unlikely for the BJP to secure this seat.
Doda West
Doda West presents an intriguing electoral scenario. Former BJP minister Shakti Raj Parihar, who faced setbacks in the 2020 District Development Council elections, losing two Doda seats, which are included in this assembly segment, is now contesting from this constituency.
He faces challenges from several lesser-known candidates, including Pardeep Kumar of the Congress, Tanveer Hussain of the PDP, and Abdul Ghani of the DPAP, along with two independent contenders.
The constituency’s demographic composition adds another layer of complexity to the electoral equation.
Out of approximately 85,000 voters, about 50,000 are non-Muslim, while around 35,000 are Muslim. However, within the non-Muslim voter base, a significant portion – about 17,000 – belongs to the Scheduled Tribe category, a group that may not automatically align with the BJP.
Despite fielding a relatively lesser-known candidate, the Congress-led alliance appears to be in a strong position, making this contest one to watch closely.
Bhaderwah
In Bhaderwah, the electoral contest has taken on a triangular shape. Former BJP MLA Daleep Singh Parihar, who emerged victorious in the last election, faces stiff competition from Congress leader Nadeem Sharief and a former IAS officer representing the National Conference, Sheikh Mehboob Iqbal. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has also thrown its hat into the ring with candidate Vikram Rathore.
The BJP enjoys a solid foundation in Bhaderwah, commanding roughly one-third of the vote share. This substantial base, coupled with the potential division of votes between Sharief and Iqbal – who together are expected to garner around 35,000 votes – could pave the way for Parihar’s re-election. The split in the opposition vote may prove to be a decisive factor in the BJP’s favour.
Kishtwar
In Kishtwar, the BJP is employing a strategy that banks on emotional appeal. Their candidate, 29-year-old Shagun Parihar, is the daughter of Ajit Parihar and niece of Anil Parihar, both of whom fell victim to militant attacks in November 2018. This tragic backdrop forms the core of the BJP’s campaign, as they hope to ride a wave of sympathy to electoral success.
Parihar faces formidable opposition from NC leader and former minister Sajjad Kitchloo, who previously won the seat in 2002 and 2008.
Adding to the competitive mix is PDP leader and former MLC Firdous Tak and much will depend on the latter’s ability to garner votes. For the BJP to secure a surprise victory in this constituency, they would need not only an exceptional performance from their candidate but also a strong showing from Tak, which could potentially split the opposition vote.
Padder-Nagseni
The newly created constituency of Padder-Nagseni, which initially appeared to be a straightforward victory for the BJP, has evolved into a more challenging contest. BJP’s Sunil Sharma is pitted against NC’s Pooja Thakur, the incumbent chairperson of the District Development Council (DDC) Kishtwar.
With a relatively small voter base of around 40,000, the BJP held a majority at the outset. However, the entry of BJP rebel candidate Rakesh Gosawani, also known as “Rocky,” and PDP’s Sandesh Kumar has complicated matters for the party. These additional candidates are likely to cut into the BJP’s vote share, potentially altering the outcome.
Gosawani’s campaign has gained momentum, posing a significant challenge to the BJP’s prospects. Simultaneously, Pooja Thakur has been steadily building her support base. The confluence of these factors has transformed Padder-Nagseni into another closely watched contest in the region.
Inderwal
The Inderwal constituency presents a complex political landscape. G M Saroori who is contesting independently, secured victories in 2002, 2008, and 2014, is seeking to maintain his winning streak. However, he faces stiff competition from a diversity of candidates, including National Conference’s rebel Pyare Lal Sharma, Congress nominee Sheikh Zafarullah, and BJP’s Tariq Hussain Keen.
In the 2014 elections, the BJP managed to secure approximately 12,000 votes in this constituency. The current contest is characterized by a strong trio of candidates – Saroori, Sharma, and Zafarullah – each expected to command a substantial and roughly equal share of votes.
In the recent parliamentary elections, though Saroori, backed by Ghulam Nabi Azad’s DPAP, got his maximum share of votes from Inderwal, he finished third with 10368 votes even on his home turf. The Congress (in alliance with NC) led with 16832 votes and the BJP bagged 11671 votes.
Saroori recently parted ways with Azad.
In the assembly polls, however, the NC rebel candidate is also likely to play a role.
While this division among anti-BJP voters could potentially benefit the BJP, the party’s overall position in the constituency remains weak, making an outright win unlikely.
Banihal
The electoral battle in Banihal is shaping up to be a closely contested affair. Former Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) president and ex-minister Vikar Rasool Wani is aiming for a hat-trick here. However, he faces significant challenges from NC’s Sajjad Shaheen and PDP’s Imtiyaz Shan.
While Wani and Shaheen have their strongholds in Banihal, Shan’s influence is primarily concentrated in the Gool and Sangaldan areas. Interestingly, Shan, currently perceived to be in third place, has been steadily gaining ground and could potentially spring a surprise. His increasing popularity on his home turf adds an element of unpredictability to the contest.
BJP is nowhere in the race here.
Ramban
The Ramban constituency is witnessing a shift in its political landscape with the emergence of new faces. The BJP has fielded Rakesh Singh Thakur, who is locked in a contest with NC’s Arjun Singh Raju and the party’s rebel candidate, Suraj Singh Parihar. Notably, the BJP denied a ticket to its previous winner, Neelam Kumar Langeh, introducing new dynamics to the race.
In recent decades, the BJP has enjoyed a strong position in Ramban, commanding approximately 55-60% of the vote share. In the 2014 assembly elections, BJP got a 31 percent vote share.
Till 2014, though it had around 60% Muslim population, it was reserved as a Scheduled Caste constituency till 2014. (No constituency in the Chenab Valley has been reserved for SCs after the 2022 delimitation). Division among anti-BJP votes in the past favoured the BJP.
With Gool now added to Ramban, bringing down the ratio of Muslims from 60% to 50%, the BJP has an added advantage.
However, this time round, the presence of BJP’s rebel candidate Suraj Singh Parihar threatens to split the party’s vote base, potentially undermining its chances.
The NC has made a strategic move by nominating Arjun Singh Raju, a Hindu candidate. While Raju may not be widely known, his religious identity could help him attract votes from the non-Muslim community, particularly given the limited alternatives available to this demographic group. But he comes from a political family of P N Raju, who was a legislator and a minister in the 1980s.
The combination of internal party rebellion and strategic opposition moves has turned what might have been a comfortable win for the BJP into a potentially surprising contest.
Overall, the Chenab Valley region presents a diverse and complex political battlefield. The outcomes of these closely fought contests will play a crucial role in shaping the broader political landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.
*Mubashir Naik is a freelance journalist based in Jammu and Kashmir. He covers Politics, Crime, Conflict, Environment and Health. His work has been published in several international and national media outlets. He tweets @sule_khaak.
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