Anuradha Bhasin*
The stormy turn of events in Bangladesh, sending its most once powerful woman prime minister scurrying for refuge, has two important warnings for the Narendra Modi-led Indian government. One is that it must set its house in order and the other is to mend fences internationally.
Triggered by the quotas for ‘freedom fighters’ after the recent sham elections in which she returned to power, the tumultuous protests in Bangladesh against Sheikh Haseena stem from deep-rooted and seething anger against her authoritarian, arbitrary and corruption-riddled regime. Her style of governance matched that of Narendra Modi’s regime throttling all dissent, carrying out a systemic witch-hunt against political opponents and camouflaging the stinking rot of corruption and worrying state of the economy with discredited data and robust propaganda machinery.
The August 5 fall of Haseena and her disgraceful flight was preceded by spiralling unrest that she chose to deal with an iron fist, causing a river of bloodshed on the streets which she papered over with her usual lies and propaganda. It showed, as the history of all tyrants across the world does, that there are limits to authoritarian control which comes with its twin brother – propaganda. When both fall like a pack of cards, exposing the malevolence of a tyrant in its most naked form to the lesser mortals reeling in acute distress, the tyrant has no choice but to run for cover like a hounded prey.
The fall of Haseena comes exactly two years after the Sri Lankan president Gotabaya Rajapaksa met a similar fate and went into self-imposed exile as pent-up anger spilt on the roads of Colombo.
Will Modi heed the important lessons from the neighbourhood and make a course correction or will he continue to invest himself in creating a false illusion about his invincibility, even his divinity, while papering over his multiple failures and ignoring the distress at the grassroots – among minorities, ruralites, working class, farmers and many other sections of society?
Given Modi’s persona, which comprises as much of his toxic ideology of exclusion as well as his megalomania, it will be more likely the latter, even though the imminence of his ultimate fall, appears to be very near after his truncated majority in the Indian parliament. Though he returned as prime minister of the country for the third time in June this year, unlike his previous two terms when he commanded a brute majority, his wings have been severely clipped as his dependence on unreliable allies has become crucial for his continuance. Despite that, he continues to pretend that it is business as usual, using the state machinery to stamp out dissent, choke media, and crack down on minorities with much more vitriolic venom. Instead of working towards improving the country’s sagging economy, which played a major role in limiting his power in the recent elections, he continues to focus on building a narrative that is far removed from rampant unemployment and rising inflation.
Looking at these dynamics, the ground within India is rife with acute distress and anger that can take moments to metamorphose into unrest. If this seemed incredulous, Bangladesh’s political landscape today serves him a grim reminder. One would hope the Modi government can recognize all these dangers and prevent India from sliding down a possible bloody road. Throughout his political career, starting in Gujarat, he hasn’t shown the capacity to be flexible and adaptive. Arrogance, muscle flexing and sneering at others form the fundamental core of his style of functioning. In all probability, the message from Bangladesh may be lost on him. In that eventuality, we can only hope that his imminent downfall is a smoother and bloodless transition.
The second lesson for Modi is on international diplomacy. In the last decade, Sheikh Haseena and Modi invested heavily in building a strong partnership, fostering significant advances in cross-border trade, transit, security, and people-to-people exchanges. The close association between Haseena and Modi has intensified concerns about the future of India-Bangladesh relations, given the fact that India, of late, has been ill at ease with the opposition within Bangladesh, particularly the Jamaat-e-Islami, which backed the recent protests.
Ousted Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Haseena. Photo/Open Source
Why should this be worrying?
Bangladesh was perhaps the last remaining neighbour in South Asia with whom India under Modi enjoyed good friendly relations. Ever since he came to power, Modi has taken swift strides towards improving international relations across the globe while dangerously ignoring South Asia completely. This is extremely worrying amidst increasingly acrimonious relations with Pakistan and an uneasy front with China. China has already capitalised on India’s growing rift with traditional allies like Nepal and Maldives in the neighbourhood, by moving in wherever India ceded ground.
By failing to recognise the significance of reaching out to Bangladesh in its present moment of crisis, but losing no time in providing interim relief to Haseena whom the prospective dispensation within Bangladesh would want to be put on trial for gross violation of human rights, India may miss the bus which China and Pakistan would be happy to jump on to. That will leave India completely isolated in the neighbourhood and more reliant on the United States which wants to use India to fight its dirty war with China, at the risk of making India’s already fragile borders more volatile.
Geo-political arithmetic is a complex and dirty business. It requires to be grasped with wisdom and navigated with caution and pragmatism. India is a small but important part of the geopolitical chessboard. It has the choice of reducing itself to a pawn or to become the determinant of its own future.
If it wants to be the latter, it must begin by resisting the temptation of turning yet another neighbour into an enemy and losing its hold and relevance within South Asia completely. It should seize the moment without waiting for a new interim dispensation to take over the reins in Bangladesh. As an immediate, it must come out with a statement of solidarity with the people of Bangladesh.
Despite the clear and instructive lessons from Bangladesh at hand, so far, it seems Modi has chosen to bury his head in the sand. While ignoring the first set of lessons may only jeopardize his own power and vigour, though it can have the potential to pushing the country towards unrest. However, disregarding the second could dangerously weaken India’s strategic depth and security. This oversight poses a significant threat that we cannot afford to ignore.
*Anuradha Bhasin is the Managing Editor of Kashmir and the author of the book “The Dismantled State: The Untold Story of Kashmir After Article 370” and can ordered here.
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