JAMMU/SRINAGAR: As campaigning for the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat ends, all eyes are now on the polling on May 25. While the two front runners are Mehbooba Mufti of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mian Altaf Ahmad of the National Conference, the BJP which is not contesting the polls, has high stakes in this battleground.
This geographically daunting constituency spans the Pir Panjal range, encompassing the Rajouri-Poonch belt on one side and Anantnag-Kulgam on the other. The redrawing of the boundaries in the delimitation of 2022 was seen as a bid to dilute the Kashmiri Muslim homogeneity by clubbing Anantnag in South Kashmir to the Pir Panjal region with overwhelming Gujjar-Bakerwal and Pahari population, ostensibly to benefit the BJP electorally.
The constituency is significant for the BJP, which is desperate to make inroads into the Valley. In February, the Indian Parliament passed a bill that would grant Scheduled Tribe status to Paharis, which includes both Hindus and Muslims. In a region, where battlelines have been drawn largely on ethnic lines between Paharis on one side and Gujjar-Bakerwals on the other, the BJP hoped to benefit electorally from this move.
The new map of the constituency has slightly altered the traditional faultlines as Kashmiri Muslims are the dominant majority in the constituency. Of the 18 lakh voters, 62 percent are in Anantnag-Kulgam and part of Shopian.
The National Conference is banking on its traditional party cadre vote and that of its candidate Mian Altaf Ahmad, a Gujjar spiritual leader with deep community roots.
Mehbooba Mufti has a strong base in Anantnag. In impressive campaigns in the twin border districts, she has also effectively managed to attract a sizeable section of Paharis and Gujjars by emphasizing unity between the two communities.
Though BJP has hesitated to throw its hat in the ring, it views the election as important for enabling it to create a base for the party in the assembly elections.
The BJP is actively campaigning in this constituency, particularly in the two districts of the Pir Panjal, where several BJP leaders and activists of the state and national cadres including BJP’s National General Secretary Tarun Chugh have been camping for days and seeking support for Apni Party’s candidate Zafar Iqbal Manhas.
Amit Shah’s recent surprise visit to Kashmir is also speculated to have been triggered by the Apni Party’s losing proposition in this constituency, even more by reports of Paharis throwing their weight behind the PDP. During his visit, he met several Pahari delegations. It is not known what transpired in these meetings.
However, the PDP leaders allege that Shah’s visit was aimed at stalling Mehbooba’s expansion in Rajouri-Poonch and the likelihood of the Paharis tilting towards her. They also allege that the entire state machinery has been pressed into service to ensure that Mehbooba is defeated.
PDP activists and some observers on the ground in Rajouri and Poonch said that Pahari advocates, employees, and sarpanches are being pressurised, intimidated and co-opted. “But it will not have much impact,” they say.
For the BJP, the primary objective in the Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha elections transcends immediate electoral gains or losses. Their central focus is on cultivating the recently designated Scheduled Tribe community of Paharis as a loyal vote bank, preventing them from being swayed by the overtures of parties like the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
For the BJP, the outcome of this specific election is of lesser consequence compared to the broader goal of embedding itself within the Pahari community’s psyche.
Ultimately, for the BJP, this election is a stepping stone in its quest to break the stranglehold of traditional parties and establish itself as a formidable force in a region that has long been considered impregnable. The Pahari vote is pivotal to this mission, and the party’s strategy revolves around ensuring that this crucial demographic is not lured away by its rivals, irrespective of the outcome on May 25.
To meet this objective, the BJP activists have been fanned out in different assembly segments of Rajouri and Poonch to back Manhas, and are aggressively reaching out to the Paharis in these two districts, and asking people not to vote for the PDP or National Conference.
BJP has also imported cadre members from Gujarat, Bihar and other states to extensively cover the two districts.
Earlier this month, Mehbooba Mufti filed a written complaint with the Returning Officer (RO), Anantnag, and alleged that BJP leaders were “threatening Paharis in the Rajouri-Poonch belt to vote for Apni Party”.
Though BJP’s active campaign may have successfully dented PDP’s support in some pockets of Rajouri, it is less effective in Poonch. In several roadshows that BJP leaders are organising, there is little enthusiasm on the ground. In a meeting that Ravinder Raina addressed in Surankot recently, not more than 50 people turned up.
The BJP is supporting a party that has been involved in Hawala money pumped in from Pakistan to fund militancy in Kashmir, PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti said on Wednesday in Poonch, in a veiled attack on Apni Party president Altaf Bukhari.
Bukhari, a former PDP leader, was expelled from the party in January 2019. His Apni Party has fielded Zafar Iqbal Khan Manhas from the Anantnag-Rajouri parliamentary constituency against Mehbooba and National Conference leader Mian Altaf.
“The first-of-its-kind attack on tourists in Pahalgam (on Saturday night that left a tourist couple from Rajasthan injured) should be investigated with a focus on the role of a party which brought Hawala money in large quantities from Pakistan for funding militancy (in Kashmir),” the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) president told reporters in Poonch district.
“I do not want to name anyone but if you try to find out, you will come to know who is behind handing over money to militants and (separatist) leaders. The connections are still intact and they can use those connections to do anything to ensure a low polling percentage in Kashmir,” she said.
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