SRINAGAR: In the first Rajya Sabha elections held in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 in 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party managed to secure one seat with 32 votes despite having only 28 legislators in the assembly, raising questions about possible cross-voting by opposition members.
The elections, which marked the end of a decade-long gap in the region's Upper House representation, saw Chief Minister Omar Abdullah's National Conference sweep three of the four available seats, while the BJP claimed the fourth in a closely contested battle that has now sparked controversy.
The surprise victory of the BJP candidate could be attributed to several factors – probable cross-voting, three invalid votes and two abstentions by independent MLAs.
The BJP's senior leader Sat Sharma defeated National Conference's Imran Nabi Dar by securing 32 out of 54 votes in the fourth seat contest. This outcome has raised eyebrows across political circles, as the BJP's legislative strength stands at only 28 members in the 90-member assembly (two vacant seats reduced the total to 88).
The mathematics of the election reveals a puzzling scenario. With the BJP commanding 28 votes and securing 32, at least four additional votes came from outside the party's ranks, pointing to cross-voting by legislators from other parties or independents.
Three votes were declared invalid during the counting process. There were suspicions within the political circles that the three invalid votes were cast by two NC legislators and one Congress member. The BJP’s single victory, however, triggered allegations and counter allegations.
The Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly has a total strength of 90 seats, of which two are currently vacant, bringing the total number of eligible voters to 88 for the Rajya Sabha polls. The composition of the assembly is as follows:
National Conference (NC): 41 MLAs
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 28 MLAs
Indian National Congress: 6 MLAs
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP): 3 MLAs
Independents: 10 MLAs
While 86 MLAs voted, Peoples Conference chairman and MLA Sajad Gani Lone abstained, and AAP MLA from Doda Mehraj Malik, booked under the PSA and lodged at Kathua jail, cast his vote through postal ballot.
This distribution suggests that the National Conference and its allies had a comfortable majority to secure three seats, but the BJP's ability to garner four extra votes has triggered speculation about potential defections or strategic voting by independent legislators and possibly members from opposition parties.
Speaking to the media shortly before the counting of votes, Congress legislator Ghulam Ahmad Mir, deflated Chief Minister Omar Abdullah’s confidence about winning all four seats. “We may be able to scrape through on the fourth seat,” he said, worrying that there may be some cross-voting and the BJP might manage to get an extra vote or so.
Mir also blamed the NC for not reaching out to the independents and cited the instance of Malik Mehraj, who abstained.
Whether it was the other independents or someone from the NC camp, at least four members voted for the BJP.
Meanwhile, the ruling National Conference celebrated a resounding victory with three of its candidates successfully elected to the Rajya Sabha:
1. Chowdhary Mohammad Ramzan secured the first seat
2. Sajad Kichloo won the second seat
3. G.S. (Shammi) Oberoi, the party's treasurer, clinched the third seat
Visuals of jubilant celebrations emerged from the National Conference office in Srinagar following the announcement of results, with party workers and leaders expressing satisfaction at the strong mandate.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah congratulated the winning candidates in a post on X (formerly Twitter), stating: "Heartiest congratulations to my colleagues Ch Mohd Ramzan, Sajad Kichloo, and Shammi Oberoi on their victory in the Rajya Sabha polls. I wish them well as they begin a new innings representing the people of J&K in the Parliament of India."
However, Abdullah also expressed disappointment over the loss of his party's fourth candidate, Imran Nabi Dar, who was defeated in the closely contested race against the BJP's Sat Sharma. "At the same time, my heart goes out to Imran Nabi Dar. We put in our best effort to get him elected but were let down at the last moment. Losing a hard-fought election is never easy, but I am confident that other opportunities will open up for him soon," Abdullah added.
The phrase "let down at the last moment" appears to be a veiled reference to the suspected cross-voting that enabled the BJP's victory.
Political Reactions
Peoples Democratic Party president Mehbooba Mufti congratulated the National Conference candidates on their victory and expressed hope that they would effectively represent the aspirations of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in Parliament. The PDP, with its three MLAs, had supported the National Conference in the elections.
Reacting to the BJP’s victory, Peoples Conference chairman Sajad Lone, who abstained from voting, posted on X, “So BJP wins the fourth seat. As predicted, fixed match. Axis of the evil — NC and BJP. Thank God I abstained. Imagine what my plight would have been. Now mathematically proved that it was a fixed match. Why did NC poll extra votes for candidate 3? They didn’t need to. They polled 31 votes for candidate 3. Only 29 votes would have sufficed. Even 28. Because BJP was fighting for seat 4. Who cross-voted, whose votes were rejected, and who was hand in glove?”
Lone also alleged that under an understanding with the BJP, the NC had denied a safe seat to its ally, the Congress.
The election holds special significance as it is the first Rajya Sabha poll in Jammu and Kashmir since the abrogation of Article 370 in August 2019, when the former state was reorganised into two Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir, and Ladakh.
The four Rajya Sabha seats were contested through three separate notifications. These seats had fallen vacant in February 2021 following the completion of terms of PDP MPs Mir Mohammad Fayaz and Nazir Ahmed Laway, BJP MP Shamsher Singh, and former Congress MP Ghulam Nabi Azad.
Voting took place at the Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly Complex in Srinagar, with three polling booths set up within the assembly premises. By noon, over 70 MLAs, including Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, had cast their votes. Polling concluded at 4.00 PM, and counting began immediately thereafter, with results announced by late this evening.
The cross-voting incident has significant political ramifications for the region. While the National Conference maintains its dominant position with three seats, the BJP's ability to secure additional votes beyond its legislative strength demonstrates either successful political maneouvering or potential fissures within the opposition coalition.
Political analysts suggest that independent legislators, who number 10 in the assembly, may have played a crucial role in the outcome. The BJP may have successfully wooed some independents or secured support from dissident elements within other parties.
The three invalid votes also add another layer of intrigue to the electoral outcome, raising questions about whether they were cast intentionally to disrupt calculations or were genuine errors.
For the BJP, the victory represents a significant foothold in representing the Union Territory at the national level, despite being in the opposition in the local assembly. The party's ability to secure the fourth seat demonstrates its continued relevance in Jammu and Kashmir's political landscape, particularly in the Jammu region where it traditionally enjoys stronger support.
The results mark a new chapter in Jammu and Kashmir's parliamentary representation, with the region's voice returning to the Rajya Sabha after a decade-long absence. However, the circumstances surrounding the election outcomes ensure that this historic moment will be remembered as much for the political intrigue as for the democratic milestone it represents.
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