Raja Muzaffar*
The Kashmir conflict, which is often misunderstood as a territorial dispute, is a complex issue rooted in the Kashmiri people’s quest for independence. While India and Pakistan disagree on various issues, they are united in their refusal to grant independence to the people of Jammu and Kashmir. The upcoming 2024 elections in both countries pose a significant risk, as political adventurism to secure electoral victories or postpone elections could further escalate an already volatile situation.
It is crucial to proactively address the problem in Jammu and Kashmir and look for innovative solutions to ensure sustainable peace in the region. The recent incidents in the Poonch region of Jammu, including the killing of civilians and attacks on the Indian Army, are indeed worrying and have escalated tensions in the region. These incidents highlight the volatile security situation in the region and the urgent need for de-escalation and dialogue between India and Pakistan.
The international community must also closely monitor the situation in Poonch and encourage India and Pakistan to resume dialogue and find a peaceful solution to the Kashmir conflict. The mediation efforts of relevant regional and global actors can provide a platform for constructive dialogue and help prevent further escalation of violence.
The Kashmir conflict has its roots in the partition of British India in 1947, when the last ruler of Kashmir, Maharaja Hari Singh, wanted to keep his state independent. To achieve this goal, he offered both India and Pakistan a standstill agreement. Unfortunately, India rejected this proposal, while Pakistan accepted it on August 12, 1947. However, Pakistan violated the agreement by supporting attacks by tribals in the valley on October 22, 1947.
China’s involvement has further complicated the Kashmir issue. China’s control over Aksai Chin and its support for Pakistan’s claims to Kashmir has added another layer of complexity to the conflict. In addition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that runs through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, have raised concerns about China’s long-term strategic interests in the region. The presence of three nuclear-armed nations with conflicting territorial claims increases the risk of a potential nuclear catastrophe.
The upcoming elections in Pakistan and India in 2024 represent an additional risk factor. Political parties in both countries could resort to Kashmir-related adventurism to secure votes or divert attention from domestic issues. Such actions could pose a serious threat to regional stability and peace. Moreover, any attempt to postpone the elections in Pakistan by exploiting the Kashmir dispute would further aggravate tensions and potentially spiral the situation out of control.
Both India and Pakistan should primarily engage in meaningful dialogue through diplomatic channels without preconditions to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir issue. A comprehensive and inclusive peace process supported by influential global powers could provide impartial facilitation and help bridge the gap between the conflicting parties.
*The author is the Director at South Asia Democracy Watch, US
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