Election cycle in Pakistan reflects a broader historical pattern of political maneuvering, establishment influence and cyclical redemption of politicians.
Justice (retd.) Manzoor Gilani*
The Election Commission of Pakistan conducted the 16th National Assembly and Provincial Assemblies elections on February 8, spending an estimated 42.5 billion rupees in the process. However, the result has raised questions about the fairness and credibility of the elections, not only domestically but also from international observers and media, including organisations from the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union and Pakistan itself.
The elections took place some two years after the dramatic ouster of Imran Khan, once a favourite of the Pakistani establishment, through a vote of no confidence supported by the latter.
His ouster marked a significant shift in the country’s political landscape and paved the way for Shahbaz Sharif to take over as Prime Minister. The Sharif family, which includes Shahbaz’s brother Nawaz Sharif, had previously been condemned and humiliated, only to be rehabilitated by the establishment in time for the 2024 elections.
In Pakistan, the term “establishment” usually refers to the security apparatus, but also encompasses a broader coalition that includes the judiciary, politicians, civil administration, religious scholars, educational institutions and the landed elite. These different elements coordinate their efforts and play a crucial role in shaping the political terrain.
Despite efforts to sideline Imran Khan and his party, they managed to win a surprisingly large number of votes, suggesting that the establishment significantly underestimated them.
The 2024 election mirrored the rigging tactics of past elections, with new strategies aimed at discrediting Khan and his supporters by labelling them traitors. This pattern of vilifying politicians to later “cleanse” their reputations ahead of elections is a recurring theme in Pakistan’s political history. The election also underlined the continuing influence of dynastic politics, although Imran Khan has campaigned vigorously against these entrenched power structures.
The shifting political alliances and the potential for unexpected partnerships highlight the fluid nature of Pakistan’s political landscape. Parties such as the PPP, the MQM and the Muslim League-Q remain opportunistic and show a willingness to realign themselves according to the prevailing political winds. The enduring popularity of Imran Khan and the strategic acumen of figures like Zardari point to a continuing evolution of political dynamics.
Impact on Kashmir
Regions such as Pakistan Administered Jammu and Kashmir or the AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) play a unique role in the electoral process, reflecting the broader political affiliations and concerns of Pakistan’s main political landscape. Although they do not play a direct constitutional role in the national elections, the political sentiments in these areas have a significant impact on the overall national politics, especially about Kashmir.
Interestingly, neither India nor the situation in Indian-administered Kashmir took centre stage in the elections. Instead, there seemed to be a shift towards reconciliation and management of regional conflicts through diplomacy and economic cooperation. The initiative to start work on a gas pipeline from the Iranian border to Gwadar in Balochistan is a step towards addressing security and economic issues through regional co-operation.
The history of India-Pakistan relations is complex, especially involving Kashmir. The abolition of special status under Articles 370 and 35A has further complicated these relations. However, the continuation of a ceasefire agreement since February 2021 indicates a potential for reducing tensions and fostering a more amicable environment for resolving long-standing disputes.
This election cycle in Pakistan reflects a broader historical pattern of political manoeuvring, establishment influence and cyclical redemption of politicians. As the country navigates its internal and external challenges, the resilience of its democratic processes and the possibility of consensual regional relations remain critical areas of interest.
The path to overcoming historical hostilities and promoting peaceful coexistence both domestically and with neighbouring countries requires a commitment to diplomacy, economic cooperation and the resolution of contentious issues in a manner that respects the dignity and aspirations of all parties involved.
In Pakistan-administered Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan, the pattern continues of election results aligning with whichever party is in power at the federal level, with the presidency often reflecting establishment preference. This microcosm of national politics underscores the inter-connectedness of Pakistan’s political landscape and the ongoing challenge of ensuring equitable representation and governance across all regions.
Despite the high level of hostility after the Balakot – Pulwama attack by the Indian Air Force and the return of the surviving fighter pilot Abhinandan, the ceasefire on the Line of Control announced by the Directors General of Military Operations of both countries in February 2021 is being strictly observed by both sides. It can create a favourable atmosphere to achieve a breakthrough. Changing the constitutional status of a state does not change the realities on the ground.
If Pakistan seizes the moment of change and reconciliation, it could indeed change the course of history and pave the way for a more stable and prosperous future.
*The writer is a former acting Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir
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