Irfan Gull*
The BJP hopes to use the Engineer Rashid factor in elections not only to fracture the mandate in the Valley but also for consolidation of Hindu majoritarian votes in Jammu region.
While some political observers view his interim bail as a triumph of Indian democracy, for the people of Jammu and Kashmir, it heralds different concerns.
The people of Jammu & Kashmir have repeatedly been stung by deceit and betrayal, and their perceptions are shaped by how the political landscape has dramatically shifted and transformed their lives.
All political leaders were arrested in 2019 to silence any dissent, but Engineer Rashid was detained under the UAPA and held in Tihar Jail on allegations of money laundering. It is unusual for someone facing such serious charges to be granted interim bail while many others accused of similar charges are still languishing in jail.
Recently, he was granted interim bail by a Delhi court. Many in Jammu and Kashmir believe that his release is a calculated political move and his participation in political campaigning could impact electoral dynamics.
Its direct impact would be felt particularly in northern Kashmir, which comprises 16 assembly segments. Some analysts see his release as part of a strategy to divide the mandate in Kashmir.
What is, however, lesser understood is that significantly his release will also benefit the BJP in the 24 segments of Jammu that are also heading to the polls in the same phase.
It is important to recognize this broader context. The BJP is struggling to establish a stronger presence in the Jammu region, particularly in the districts of Udhampur, Kathua, Samba, and Jammu. They need a polarising figure to effectively capitalize on this situation. Rashid is the best bet available.
Rashid’s rhetoric, which is more about sentimentality and polarization, could aid the BJP in communalizing the elections in the Jammu region and distract the voters from its failure to deliver good governance, which many people in the Jammu region had expected following the abrogation of Article 370.
Rashid’s beef controversy (2015) was exploited by the BJP and now his interim bail in the backdrop of the recent surge in terrorist attacks in Jammu, along with the entry of other independents that self-identity themselves as ‘Islamists’ will also likely be weaponized by the BJP to show Kashmiris in poor light.
In the 1950s, when the Sheikh Abdullah-led National Conference began advocating for the needs of the people of Jammu and Kashmir—such as land, jobs, education, and healthcare—along with championing the federal structure of the Indian Union, he was removed from power to appease the RSS which was opposing the Sheikh and his policies.
This marked the beginning of the marginalization of political leaders. Political figures like Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad, Sadiq, and others became enablers of New Delhi’s efforts to erode Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy, leading to the rise of client leaders with no genuine mass base.
BJP-RSS has a long history of undermining the vision of the National Conference. Unlike the other regional parties, which are new, and lack a deep normative connection with the people, the National Conference maintains a strong and enduring relationship with the people through its cadres extending from Lakhanpur to Karnah and thus remains the biggest challenge for the BJP which wants to marginalize Kashmiri leadership.
Engineer Rashid may be the latest ploy.
*Irfan Gull is a political activist associated with JKNC
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