Anuradha Bhasin
There are many takeaways from the Indian election results that have not given the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) led by Narendra Modi a clear majority. The most significant is that while BJP has emerged as the single largest party, it is the INDIA Bloc trailing behind that has scored a moral victory.
The BJP has bagged 240 seats and falls 32 short of the halfway mark (272) required for government formation, compelling it to now rely on its allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). The INDIA Bloc has obtained 234 seats.
Rejection of Brand Modi
The election results represent a moral defeat for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had projected himself as the singular guarantee of his government and his party manifesto and aimed for a two-thirds majority. Modi had set an ambitious target of 370 seats for BJP and 400 for the NDA. Together, the NDA has won just 291 seats.
After the verdict, Modi tweeted, “People have placed their faith in NDA, for a third consecutive time! This is a historical feat in India’s history.” The show of victory, however, stands in striking contrast to the slogan of ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar’ (Now, we will cross 400). Having raised the bar, can the lack of majority for the BJP and 291 seats for the NDA be a cause for triumph?
In his previous elections in 2014 and 2019, he had taken the sole credit of bagging for the BJP a clear majority. The blame for falling short of it fairly lies on his shoulders.
The vote is clear a rejection of Brand Modi, his centralised authority, his majoritarian politics, hollow economic promises, and his promotion of crony capitalism.
The BJP’s significant drop in seats may be linked to joblessness, rising prices, growing inequality, and the Agniveer scheme – controversial army recruitment reform, among other things.
With nothing to show on his report card of the last ten years in the lead, Modi’s entire focus during his campaigning was on invoking hatred for and fear of India’s largest minority – the Muslims – and promoting divisive politics.
The verdict signifies the fatigue of the majoritarian sentiment that was pivoted around politics of hate, the raising of the Ram Temple, and the abrogation of Article 370 in Jammu and Kashmir. That has visibly not found much currency in the Indian electorate.
Interestingly, the BJP is defeated in Ayodhya where the Ram temple is situated. In Kashmir, it shied away from contesting elections and put its weight behind proxy parties that have been badly routed. It has lost in Ladakh but retained the two seats in Jammu, though with much smaller victory margins than 2019.
As an aside, the contrasting verdicts from the two provinces of Kashmir and Jammu, signify the regional fault lines.
Down but not Out
Though the BJP’s majoritarian politics has been dented, the verdict suggests that this brand of politics is not yet over.
The BJP has made significant gains in Odisha, winning power for the first time and securing 19 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats. They have also opened their account for the first time in Kerala and made gains in Telangana, suggesting a spread of their influence to new regions.
Though the BJP has expanded its base in some pockets like Odisha and South India, it has suffered major setbacks in the Hindi heartland and the cow belt, primarily in Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Its hopes of expanding in West Bengal were dashed. BJP’s southern foray, in which the party had invested a lot has also not worked to the extent that the BJP expected.
Resurgence of secular parties
There is clear evidence of a resurgence of the Congress party, up from 52 seats in 2019 to 99, and its secular allies. The INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance) Bloc is expected to have a tally of 234 seats, showing a significant comeback in several politically crucial Hindi heartland states. This resurgence suggests a stronger opposition in parliament after 10 years.
The INDIA Bloc’s performance is indeed significant, particularly in light of the challenges such as skewed electoral funding, lack of a fair and level playing electoral field, and the evident bias of the Election Commission of India.
The alliance was successful in key states like Uttar Pradesh, where their outreach to OBC voters paid rich dividends, winning 44 seats and reducing BJP’s tally from 62 to 35. It has done superbly well in Maharashtra, West Bengal and retained its hold in the southern states.
The strengthening of the regional forces like the Shiv Sena-Nationalist Congress Party in Maharashtra, Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal within the INDIA Bloc, and Telegu Desam Party in Andhra Pradesh, Janta Dal (U) in Bihar – both allies of the BJP – signify the relevance of the regional powers.
As opposed to Modi’s politics of centralized authority, the electorate in many states has shown that the regional parties are better suited to meet their aspirations. Odisha where BJP has made strong gains at the cost of Biju Janta Dal, however, is an exception.
Overall, the results signal a return to coalition politics, marking a shift from Modi’s dominant rule. Whether that works better for democracy and federalism will depend on the new government and the governance model.
Both the Congress and the regional players have made strong comebacks but whether they can sustain and further strengthen will depend on their performance in the next coming months and years.
For now, the parliament would see a stronger opposition.
Implications of a hung parliament
As for the hung parliament that the electorate has given will have huge implications on Indian polity, the scope and nature of which are difficult to fully comprehend at this premature juncture.
The hung parliament does suggest that Modi will have to contend with pressures he’s not used to. The BJP, even though the single largest, will have to offer its allies some concessions and room to operate.
This does not fit well with Modi’s brand of politics which is about centralizing authority. Both in his three terms as the chief minister of Gujarat and two terms as the Indian prime minister, Modi centralized all control and became the sole governance. The negotiations with allies will be a rocky path to navigate.
In light of these facts, the next couple of days, as the drama of the tussle for power unfolds, there will be interesting developments about the BJP’s ability to keep the NDA flock together. Would the BJP-RSS still throw its weight behind Modi or has Brand Modi outlived its shelf life? Would there be a change of guard?
Much will change in the Indian political landscape after the bubble of Modi’s invincibility has been burst.
—–
Have you liked the news article?