“Rashid’s victory could pave the way for more resilient and rebellious politics. It is also an assertion of Kashmiri identity if not the autonomist sentiment.”
Gowhar Geelani*
Not one, but many factors were at play in Kashmir’s dicey political landscape after the changes made in August 2019. Kashmir continues to remain a valley of versions and a graveyard of reputations.
Major takeaways from the results of the just-concluded parliamentary elections in Jammu and Kashmir are:
The massive and unprecedented defeats to the two former chief ministers – Omar Abdullah of the National Conference (NC) and Mehbooba Mufti of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Two, embarrassing electoral setbacks to the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) proxy trio comprising Sajad Lone, Altaf Bukhari, and Ghulam Nabi Azad, who lead the lesser-known faction of the People’s Conference (PC), Apni Party (AP), and the Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) respectively. On all three seats in the Kashmir Valley – Srinagar, Anantnag-Rajouri, and Baramulla – the election results come as a rude shock for the BJP allies. All candidates representing the AP, PC, and DPAP tasted bitter defeats.
Besides these two defining factors, the thumping wins for incarcerated politician Sheikh Abdul Rashid, popularly known as Engineer Rashid, senior NC leaders Mian Altaf Ahmad Larvi and Agha Syed Ruhullah Mehdi signal a change in the mindset of voters, especially the first-time voters, and women.
Take the case of Engineer Rashid’s spectacular electoral victory in the Baramulla Lok Sabha constituency. In the absence of resources and a cadre base, his victory is significant in more ways than one. It is a vote for resilience and against the status quo. It is a result of the anger against the BJP proxies in north Kashmir and the political and dynastic elite with a proven anti-people track record. Moreover, Rashid rode on a sympathy wave.
His two sons – Abrar and Asrar – were successful in maintaining a humanistic political narrative in favour of their jailed father. By and large, they resisted the temptation of launching themselves into a diatribe and instead kept focus on their father’s imprisonment. Their slogan “jail ka badla, vote se”(countering detention with vote) clicked. Many first-time voters pressed the EVM button with ‘pressure cooker’, Rashid’s election symbol as an independent candidate. And he emerged victorious in a pressure cooker situation.
Rashid’s win could also pave the way for empowerment through candidates perceived as resilient, pro-people, oppressed, humble, and the ones that commoners can easily identify with. This victory could pave the way for more resilient and rebellious politics. It is also an assertion of Kashmiri identity if not the autonomist sentiment.
In the 2019 parliamentary elections, Rashid secured over a lakh votes in Baramulla but stood third in the triangular contest at that time. This time around, the jailed leader obtained over 4.72 lakh votes. Rashid, 57, started his political career in 2008 after resigning from his job as a construction engineer. On 19 October 2015, a group of right-wing supporters attacked him with bottles of black ink while he was addressing the media in New Delhi as an independent legislator from Langate. As a mark of protest, he hosted a beef party at Kashmir’s MLA hostel on 8 October 2015.
Currently, Rashid is lodged in Delhi’s Tihar Jail, facing UAPA (Unlawful Activities Prevention Act) charges. Immediately after the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35A, he was arrested by India’s National Investigation Agency (NIA) in a case related to alleged terror funding, a charge denied by Rashid and his family.
He is a two-time MLA from north Kashmir’s Langate Assembly segment. In his earlier avatar, he was considered a close confidante of slain Hurriyat leader and PC founder Abdul Ghani Lone, the father of Sajad Lone. Rashid parted ways and made his mark on the valley’s political landscape by successfully contesting the Assembly elections in 2008. He won the same seat (Langate) in the 2014 Assembly elections.
Meanwhile, the NC did win two parliamentary seats from the valley (the Srinagar constituency in central Kashmir and the Anantnag-Rajouri segment in south Kashmir and Pir Panjal). For a party with a 93-year-old history, it was the choice of candidates that played a key role in 2024.
Mehdi, an influential Shia Muslim leader, reaped rewards in the Srinagar constituency due to his consistent and courageous narrative against the status quo and his stance against the changes made on 5 August 2019. He ran an emotive electoral campaign and didn’t change or dilute his position. After his win, he also pledged to represent the sentiment and struggle of the people for “the return of our dignity and rights with complete sincerity”.
Fear and silence have been the two dominant emotions prevalent in Kashmir since August 2019. A clash of candidates between Ruhullah Mehdi and Waheed Parra wasn’t an ideological battle. Both passionately spoke about the importance of fighting fear and breaking the cycle of imposed silence. It is also noteworthy that the authorities ceded some space for acceptable political narrative after drawing a red line in 2019.
Without chest-thumping or shouting at the top of his lungs, Mehdi talked about the importance of protecting Kashmiri ethnic and cultural identities, dignity, diversity, dialogue, development, democracy, and also jobs. Mehdi maintained that for the restoration of the region’s autonomy and special status, he would not give up his political fight and resistance.
Mehdi obtained over 3.56 lakh votes, beating Waheed Parra by a handsome margin of over 1.88 lakh votes. The BJP’s ally Mohammad Ashraf Mir of the AP stood distant third with 65,954 votes, nearly risking his security deposit.
In the case of Mian Altaf Ahmad, a political-cum-spiritual leader of the Gujjar community, several factors worked wonders. Like Rashid and Mehdi, the Gujjar leader also comes across as a soft-spoken person known for humility.
His big victory over Mehbooba Mufti is a signal that the voters have not forgotten the impact of the unholy alliance between the BJP and PDP in early 2015, which was later endorsed by the PDP president in January 2016 after her father’s demise. Her “toffee and coffee” remarks to ridicule civilian protesters have not been forgotten either.
Besides, the verdict also highlights a growing division between the Kashmiri-speaking and Gojri-speaking populations in south Kashmir and the Pir Panjal region respectively. One can also argue that the saffron party’s gerrymandering did work in cementing the fissures but failed to reap electoral rewards for its proxies.
Mehbooba Mufti losing to Mian Altaf Ahmad by over 2.81 lakh votes telegraphs a message that the PDP’s house is not in order. The same holds for Omar Abdullah, another former chief minister, as he too lost to Engineer Rashid by a massive margin of over two lakh votes.
It was not easy for the voters to make their choices known in a suppressed environment, when the cost of expression has increased manifold. Indeed, the results are a major setback for the PDP, and personally for Omar Abdullah as the former chief minister.
Mehbooba Mufti’s loss in supposedly her south Kashmir bastion is a telling commentary on how her alliance with the BJP was a political suicide and continues to inflict unprecedented damage on her personal as well as her party’s image. She also lost the 2019 parliamentary elections.
Ideally, the entire PDP leadership should have offered an unconditional and unqualified apology to the Kashmiri voters (for her remarks in 2016) but, the party president unsuccessfully tried to justify the unjustifiable, thus further damaging her party’s credibility in the ‘pelleted’ eyes of the people.
In the case of Omar Abdullah, his image as being moody and arrogant hasn’t helped his cause. Moreover, his role during his stint as chief minister (2009-2014) hasn’t been forgotten either. How he handled the civilian agitation in 2009 and 2010 will continue to haunt him.
Qazi Afzal, a lesser-known PDP candidate at the time, defeated Omar Abdullah from Ganderbal in the 2002 Assembly elections. In 2014, Omar lost his Sonwar seat in Srinagar to Ashraf Mir, then a PDP candidate. Now, the junior Abdullah has perhaps received the severest jolt of his political career thus far.
In 2024, there is a clear message that the voters will not shy away from placing faith in the non-dynastic political faces if the old dynasts refuse to mend their ways and continue to take people for granted. Furthermore, whatever the BJP has tried to undermine or promote in Kashmir since 2019 has been duly vetoed by the voters.
*Gowhar Geelani is a journalist and the author of “Kashmir: Rage and Reason” (Rupa Publications, 2019).
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