The recent electoral victory of the National Conference (NC) and Congress alliance in Jammu and Kashmir signifies a pivotal moment in the region’s political landscape.
With the coalition securing 49 out of 90 seats in the Legislative Assembly elections – the first in a decade – there is cautious optimism regarding the restoration of statehood and the potential to address pressing economic and developmental issues.
However, the new administration faces formidable challenges, particularly in achieving peace and stability amid the unresolved Kashmir conflict, which has historically exacerbated tensions between India and Pakistan and fueled the ongoing unrest and human rights violations.
The results of the elections reflect a clear public sentiment against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), especially in the Kashmir Valley, where the party failed to win a single seat despite extensive campaigning, including multiple visits from Prime Minister Modi.
The NC’s success can be largely attributed to its ability to channel public discontent over the BJP’s heavy-handed approach, particularly following the revocation of Articles 370 and 35-A in 2019. The People’s Democratic Party (PDP), once a dominant political force, has faced a significant decline, illustrating the shifting allegiances among the electorate.
Regional Divisions
As the NC-Congress coalition prepares to assume office, it must navigate a complex political landscape characterised by regional divisions and a split mandate.
This division underscores the diverse aspirations of the people across Jammu and Kashmir, presenting a challenge for the new government to bridge these gaps while managing intense political polarization.
Importantly, the coalition must recognize that it has no option for compromise regarding its promises and electoral manifesto. The people of the Valley and the Muslim population in the Jammu region have placed their trust in the National Conference despite the heavy militarization, intimidation, and coercive measures employed by the administration.
Gujjar and Pahari communities have shown strong support for the NC, despite the BJP’s attempts to create divisions between these groups.
Challenges Ahead
A critical hurdle for the new administration will be restoring public trust in democratic institutions and processes. The current legislative framework, heavily influenced by the central government, has rendered the state assembly largely ineffective. With powers related to police order, public order, and judicial appointments concentrated in the hands of the Lieutenant Governor, the assembly operates more as a rubber stamp than a genuine decision-making body.
This situation demands that the new government advocate for the restoration of legislative powers and autonomy, a task that will require significant political will and negotiation with the central government.
Furthermore, the coalition must balance the interests of various stakeholders while addressing the grievances of the Kashmiri people. The BJP’s integrationist agenda poses a risk to the coalition’s ability to function independently, potentially limiting its capacity to govern effectively.
The NC-Congress alliance must tread carefully to maintain its autonomy while managing relations with the BJP, which remains steadfast in its centralizing approach.
To fulfill its electoral promises, the new government must prioritise economic development and social welfare initiatives that resonate with the aspirations of the people. Building alliances with other regional parties may strengthen its position, but the coalition’s success will ultimately hinge on its ability to navigate challenges and meet the growing expectations of its constituents.
Addressing the Kashmiri people’s core concerns – control over local affairs, identity protection, and an end to prevailing chaos – will be paramount. The restoration of full statehood is a critical goal that requires a concerted effort to engage the central government in meaningful dialogue.
The NC and its partners must rally public support and advocate for tangible actions that restore Jammu and Kashmir’s status, reflecting the aspirations of its people.
Multi-faceted Approach Required
The election results indicate widespread discontent with the Indian government’s policies, particularly regarding political and human rights issues. A multi-faceted approach is essential to address these concerns, including the following:
These short- and long-term goals, pursued with sincerity, could help rebuild trust between the government and the people. However, establishing a stable and prosperous Jammu and Kashmir will require a government that is responsible, responsive, accountable, and transparent.
Addressing Peace and Security
While the alliance has committed to restoring full statehood, achieving peace and stability remains the most significant challenge. The unresolved Kashmir conflict not only raises the specter of war between India and Pakistan but also serves as the root cause of ongoing unrest and human rights violations in the region.
India’s historical patterns suggest that the revival of democratic processes may be used to divert global attention from the core issues at play. However, it is vital to recognize that no government or assembly can claim to be the final arbiter of Kashmir’s future – this authority ultimately lies with the people of Kashmir.
While local governance structures may facilitate political expression, they lack jurisdiction over fundamental issues of identity, autonomy, and self-determination.
Resolving the Kashmir issue necessitates sustained efforts from all stakeholders, including India, Pakistan, and the Kashmiri people.
The NC, having expressed a willingness to engage in dialogue with Pakistan, can play a pivotal role in fostering an environment conducive to meaningful discussions. However, these efforts will be futile if the BJP government remains entrenched in its hardline stance and refuses to engage constructively with key stakeholders.
As both sides of the divide yearn for peace, the BJP’s “no talk” policy exacerbates existing tensions.
Policymakers in New Delhi must acknowledge that Kashmir is an internationally recognized dispute that requires resolution through dialogue and diplomacy. The protracted conflict poses a threat to regional peace and security, with implications that extend beyond borders.
In analyzing the current situation in Kashmir, Indian thinkers and policymakers must consider the historical and political context that shapes the region’s dynamics. Only by acknowledging the complexities of the Kashmir issue can a path to genuine peace and stability be forged.
Have you liked the news article?