Latief U Zaman Deva*
The Pir Panjal region of Jammu and Kashmir is nestled against the mighty Pir Panjal Mountain range, which geographically separates it from the Kashmir Valley.
The region is bordered on the western side by the states of West Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan.
This area is a microcosm of diversity, home to various communities, including Pahari, Gujjar, Dogra, Koshur, and Punjabi people. Each community has its unique cultural heritage and historical background, contributing to the region’s vibrant yet complex social fabric.
The Pahari people are considered an aboriginal tribe of the Indian subcontinent, with their language belonging to the Indo-Aryan branch of the Indo-European languages. However, a minority of linguistic experts argue that some dialects of Pahari may have Austro-Asiatic roots.
The Gujjar community, traditionally involved in agriculture and pastoralism, traces its origins to the regions of modern-day Gujarat and Rajasthan. They are believed to have genealogical ties to the Surajwanshi lineage of Lord Rama.
Yet, many scholars suggest their roots may lie in Central Asia, extending as far as Russia and Georgia. Recent studies indicate that the Pahari and Gujjar communities migrated to the Pir Panjal region as part of the second wave of Aryan migrations.
Pir Ki Gali, the shrine of Shaikh Ahmed Karim at the pass between Kashmir and Jammu in Pir Panjal range on Mughal Road. Photo/rjmajid5656 Instagram
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History of Migration and Settlement
The socio-political landscape of the Pir Panjal region has been shaped by several historical events, particularly the devastating famines of 1865 and 1877-79, which, along with the oppressive rule of the despotic monarchy in Kashmir, compelled a large segment of the Kashmiri population to migrate to the Greater Pir Panjal region.
These migrations contributed to the region’s demographic diversity and cultural richness. The Dogras and Punjabis, on the other hand, settled in the area from adjoining territories, including Punjab and Jammu.
Raja Dhyan Singh, a Dogra noble and vassal of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, was appointed the last King of Poonch in 1827, while Raja Raheem Ullah Khan held the position of ruler of Rajouri until October 1846. Reasi existed as a separate principality until 1822, but these principalities were either invaded and annexed by Maharaja Gulab Singh or incorporated into his kingdom following the Treaty of Amritsar in 1846.
This treaty, which marked the formal sale of Kashmir by the British to Maharaja Gulab Singh, had profound implications for the socio-political structure of the region. In 1904, Reasi and Rajouri were merged to form a single district, further consolidating the Dogra rule in the area.
Blistering Political Narratives
The election campaign narratives in Pir Panjal have been largely driven by the BJP, overshadowing the potential counter-narratives that the National Conference (NC), Indian National Congress (INC), and People’s Democratic Party (PDP) could have offered.
Instead of focusing on the divisive impact of Hindutva and the resultant polarization, the debate has shifted to development, with the BJP promising infrastructural growth if it forms the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.
However, the development of infrastructure in the region has been minimal, barring the construction of highways – projects that were conceived and initiated long before the Modi-led government came to power in 2014.
The opposition, excluding prominent leaders like the Abdullahs, Muftis, and Ruhullah, has been unable to effectively counter the BJP’s narrative. Their campaigns have often lacked focus on the political and social costs imposed by the BJP on the tender mosaic of Indian nationalism.
Abdullahs, Muftis, and Ruhullah are exposing Modi, Amit Shah & BJP but not other prominent star campaigners. The top leadership can’t reach everywhere.
The region’s infrastructure development, a critical issue for the local populace, has been largely neglected, except for a few national projects that were in the pipeline before 2014.
Socio-Economic Dynamics of the Region
The Pahari and Gujjar communities, who constitute 81% of the population across three districts, have coexisted peacefully for centuries.
Historically, the Pahari community has been associated with land ownership, money lending, and business, while the Gujjars, often marginalized, were primarily involved in pastoral and seasonal agricultural activities.
The Gujjar community faced significant exploitation, a phenomenon common among marginalized communities during the pre-partition era.
Targeted socio-economic programs for the Gujjars and Bakerwals began in 1975, and they were declared Scheduled Tribes (STs) in 1990/1992, gaining reservations in government jobs and political representation in the Legislative Assembly of Jammu and Kashmir.
These measures have had a positive impact on the Gujjar community, enabling them to uplift their socio-economic status. However, this progress has created tensions among the Pahari communities, who have, of late, also been notified as STs.
Despite this recognition, the socio-economic chasm between the two communities remains wide. The voting patterns in the region often reflect community loyalties rather than political ideologies, making electoral outcomes difficult to predict.
The BJP’s presence in the region was negligible until 1992, but the party made inroads during the 1987 J&K Assembly elections when Bashir Ahmad Naz, an independent candidate supported by the BJP, was elected from Poonch. Naz was the only Gujjar among the contestants and secured almost all the Gujjar votes.
In the 2014 Assembly elections, Abdul Gani Kohli won from the Kalakote Constituency as a BJP candidate by securing the support of both Gujjar voters and the Hindutva segments of the electorate.
However, the division of Gujjar votes becomes a critical factor when multiple Gujjar candidates are in the fray, with the non-Gujjar vote often becoming the deciding factor.
Political Reservations and Community Dynamics
Political reservations have been a contentious issue in the region. The Gujjar leadership has historically been opposed to political reservations, fearing that non-Gujjars would gain a decisive role in most ST constituencies.
During the 1983 Assembly elections, Mian Bashir Ahmad, a legendary Gujjar leader, was the Congress candidate in the Darhal Constituency, a predominantly Gujjar-majority area, pitted against Choudhary Mohammad Hussain, the NC candidate and father of Zulfiqar Choudhary.
Mian Bashir secured about 13,500 votes compared to Choudhary’s 11,000, with the 2,500-vote difference attributed to the minority community rallying behind Congress due to polarization ignited by Indira Gandhi in Jammu.
During the recent Parliamentary elections, Gujjars overwhelmingly voted for Mian Altaf Ahmad, not only due to the “blood is thicker than water” sentiment but also as a protest against the Pahari communities being notified as STs.
The Pahari community, on the other hand, tends to align with various political parties based on ideological leanings, rarely voting en-masse for a particular candidate from their community unless they represent a state party.
Detailed Electoral Scenarios in the Constituencies
Gulabgarh (ST)
The main contestants in the Gulabgarh constituency are Khursheed Ahmad of NC, Akram Choudhary of BJP, and Aijaz Ahmad Khan, an independent candidate. This constituency has a rich political history, with Haji Buland Khan, Aijaz Khan’s father, being elected thrice as an NC candidate from Gool Gulabgarh in the 1977, 1983, and 1987 Assembly elections.
After the Gool-Arnas constituency was carved out as a separate entity in 1995 by the Delimitation Commission, Aijaz Khan, then an NC candidate, lost to Abdul Gani Malik, a Janata Dal candidate, in the 1996 elections.
Malik retained the seat in the 2003 and 2008 elections as an NC candidate but lost to Mumtaz Khan, Aijaz Khan’s younger brother, who was fielded by Congress in the 2014 elections.
His victory was due to the vertical division of 61% of the non-ST vote between NC and PDP. This division of votes could recur, with Aijaz and Akram, both Gujjar candidates, competing. However, Aijaz’s reputation and his father’s political legacy may influence the outcome beyond typical electoral calculations.
Reasi
The Reasi constituency has a diverse demographic profile, with 24% ST and 70% Hindu voters, including 16.20% SC.
The main contestants are Kuldeep Raj Dubey of BJP and Mumtaz Ahmad Khan of the INC-NC alliance.
Although traditionally a BJP stronghold, the constituency often shifts allegiance to Congress or NC due to its demographic complexities, particularly the significant SC population.
The presence of Bodh Raj Mina of PDP, Satish Mohan of BSP, and Bashir U Din of the Panthers Party could influence the election outcome by splitting votes, especially among the SC and minority communities.
SM Vaishno Devi
The Shri Mata Vaishno Devi constituency is witnessing a contest between Baldev Raj Sharma of BJP, Bhupinder Jamwal of INC, and Jugal Kishore Sharma, an independent candidate.
The constituency, named after the revered Vaishno Devi shrine, holds significant political and cultural importance. The contest is primarily between BJP and Jugal, with the Congress and NC supporters rallying around Jugal to prevent a split in the opposition vote.
Kalakote-Sunderbani
In the Kalakote-Sunderbani constituency, Yasuvardhan Singh of NC and Thakur Randhir Singh of BJP, nephew and uncle, are prominent candidates.
This constituency has a long association with NC, with Thakur Rachpal Singh, father of Yasuvardhan Singh and brother of Thakur Randhir Singh, representing the constituency and serving one tenure as MLC on an NC mandate.
The ST and SC combination, forming 39.69% of the electorate, has given a strong impetus to the NC candidate. However, BJP cadres seem unenthusiastic about Randhir Singh, who relies more on the Modi factor than grassroots support. The outcome will depend on how Hindutva voters respond to the BJP’s narrative and whether Congress votes transfer to NC.
Nowshera
The Nowshera constituency, with 39.81% ST and SC votes, has historically favoured Congress or Congress-aligned candidates. Ravinder Raina of BJP and Surinder Choudhary of NC-INC are the main contestants.
Raina has robust support from the BJP and its affiliates, relying on the strength of the RSS and its organizational network.
Choudhary, however, has broad appeal and must secure support from Manohar Singh, an independent candidate and former NC leader, to avoid a split in the vote. The contest is intense, with both candidates vying for dominance in a constituency that has seen a shift in voter allegiances over the years.
Rajouri (ST)
In Rajouri, Iftikhar Ahmad of the INC-NC alliance, Master Tasaduk Hussain of PDP, and Vibodh Gupta of BJP are the main contenders.
The constituency’s complex demographic, with STs and SCs accounting for 35.50% and 6.41% of the population respectively, makes it a battleground for various community interests.
Gujjar, Pahari, and some minority communities are united in their desire to keep the BJP out, but the party’s focus on Modi’s charisma and its outreach to marginalized communities could tilt the balance.
Budhal (ST)
Budhal, a predominantly ST constituency, has long sought connectivity between Darhal and Shopian. Choudhary Zulfiqar Ali of BJP, Guftar Choudhary of PDP, and Javid Choudhary of NC are the main candidates.
Zulfiqar Ali, the son of Choudhary Mohammad Hussain, carries the legacy of his father’s political ideology.
The electorate’s choice will reflect whether they continue to support their historical political orientation or lean towards opportunistic leadership.
Thanamandi (ST)
In Thanamandi, Iqbal Malik of BJP, Advocate Muzaffar Iqbal Khan (an NC rebel), Qamer Hussain Choudhary of PDP, and Shabir Ahmad Khan of the INC-NC alliance are in the fray.
Despite a high ST population in the adjacent Rajouri constituency, the sentiment is against the BJP. The contest is likely between the PDP and the INC-NC alliance, but Muzaffar Iqbal’s influence could disrupt established patterns.
Surankot (ST)
Surankot has traditionally been a Congress bastion due to the demographic dominance of non-Gujjars and the relatively amicable relationship between Gujjars and other communities.
The main candidates – Choudhary Akram (independent), Javid Iqbal of PDP, Shahnawaz Choudhary of the INC-NC alliance, and Syed Mohammad Mushtaq Bukhari of BJP – reflect the constituency’s complex political dynamics.
The election will test whether Surankot’s electorate aligns with traditional political loyalties or opts for a new direction.
Poonch Haveli
The Poonch Haveli constituency, dominated by the Koshur community, has been a stronghold for NC.
The main contestants are Aijaz Jan of NC, Choudhary Abdul Gani of BJP, Shah Mohammad Tantray of Apni Party, and Shameem Ganai of PDP.
The BJP candidate may attract Hindutva supporters, but the real contest is between NC and the Apni Party, reflecting the shifting political alignments in the region.
Mendhar (ST)
Mendhar, with a 61:38 Pahari to Gujjar ratio, desires Pahari representation but rarely consolidates behind one candidate.
The main contestants are Javed Rana of NC, Nadeem Khan of PDP, and Murtaza Ahmad Khan of BJP. Javed Rana enjoys strong support from Gujjars due to his NC association.
Nadeem Khan, son of Rafiq Hussain Khan, has a fluctuating political career and is now representing the PDP. Murtaza Ahmad Khan’s shifting allegiances, from PDP to INC to BJP, make him a wildcard in this election.
The Pahari community’s response to BJP’s ST status narrative will be pivotal in determining the outcome.
*The writer is a retired IAS officer and former Chairperson of the Jammu and Kashmir Public Service Commission.
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The ethnic & Population profiles & Voter – Projected population (2024) Ratios are as under:-
Ethnic Profile
| Sr No | Ethnicity | Distt Poonch | Distt Rajouri | Distt Reasi | Total & % |
| 1 | Koshur | 25732 | 14347 | 59039 | 99118@7.27* |
| 2 | Dogras | 443 | 10875 | 137710 | 149028@10.93* |
| 3 | Gujar | 186658 | 221553 | 77674 | 485885@35.65* |
| 4 | Pahari | 239402 | 356057 | 20889 | 616348@45.23* |
| 5 | Punjabi | 1999 | 6086 | 3545 | 11630@0.85* |
*Population by mother tongue Census 2011
Population profile
| Sr no | Constituency | Population (2011) | ST(Ist) & % | SC & % |
| 1 | 56-Gulabgarh(ST) | 126084 | 49515@39.27 | 1662 No |
| 2 | 57- Reasi | 114899 | 27766@24.16 | 18623@16.20 |
| 3 | 58-SM Vaishno Devi | 73684 | 11084@15 | 17472@23.71 |
| 4 | 83-Kalakote-Sunderbani | 123201 | 36322@29.48 | 12584@10.21 |
| 5 | 84-Nowshera | 106826 | 18369@17.19 | 26307@24.62 |
| 6 | 85-Rajouri (ST) | 130409 | 46297@35.50 | 8361@6.41 |
| 7 | 86-Budhal ( ST) | 123050 | 70081@56.95 | 898 No |
| 8 | 87- Thanamandi(ST) | 158929 | 61746@38.85 | 07 No |
| 9 | 88-Surankot(ST) | 155377 | 65103@41.90 | 63 No |
| 10 | 89-Poonch Haveli | 180092 | 56009@31.10 | 354 No |
| 11 | 90- Mendhar | 141366 | 54989@38.89 | 139 No |
Voter- Projected population ratio
| Sr No | Constituency | Voters as on 01.07.2024 | Projected population (PP) @SDGR-2001-2011-2024 | Ratio of Voters & PP |
| 1 | Gulabgarh | 94684 | 170834 | 55.42 |
| 2 | Reasi | 84877 | 155679 | 54.52 |
| 3 | SM Vaishno Devi | 56401 | 99836 | 56.49 |
| 4 | Kalakote-Sunderbani | 97541 | 166928 | 58.43 |
| 5 | Nowshera | 86506 | 144741 | 59.76 |
| 6 | Rajouri (ST) | 89102 | 176694 | 50.42 |
| 7 | Budhal(ST) | 95072 | 166723 | 57 |
| 8 | Thanamandi (ST) | 122370 | 215332 | 56.83 |
| 9 | Surankot(ST) | 113342 | 210524 | 53.83 |
| 10 | Poonch Haveli | 128807 | 244011 | 52.78 |
| 11 | Mendhar | 109474 | 191540 | 57.15 |
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