Umakant Lakhera*
When a meeting of the constituents of the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was held in Delhi on June 7, 2024, in preparation for Narendra Modi’s third term as Prime Minister, the atmosphere was more tense than celebratory. This anxiety was understandable, as although the BJP is in power for the third time, its government is in a minority. Tensions have started to arise between the BJP and NDA constituents over various policy matters and the significance of power. Interestingly, the TDP and JDU did not adopt a stubborn stance on issues like the number of ministers and the distribution of key ministries or the Speaker of the Lok Sabha, contrary to early speculations.
Since the BJP failed to secure a majority on its own at the center, it has lost its previous stature both inside and outside the parliament. From day one, it has been weighing the risks of relationships with Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar. The TDP and JDU are known to be adept at political bargaining, and if either becomes disgruntled, it would be challenging for the BJP to sustain its government.
The BJP’s arrogance vanished after suffering a setback in Uttar Pradesh, which holds 80 seats, where it was reduced to just 33 seats. The victory margin for Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Varanasi was more than halved, and despite a grand consecration ceremony for the Ram Temple in Faizabad just months prior, the BJP suffered a significant defeat in Ayodhya.
A strong and united opposition is becoming a daily source of trouble for a government embroiled in various controversies. Adding to this, opposition leader Rahul Gandhi labeled the budget as a “save Modi’s chair budget,” putting the BJP in an uncomfortable position.
TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, who returned to power in Andhra Pradesh after a ten-year political exile, is focused on advancing the state along the path of modern development. His aim is to hand over his political legacy to his son, Nara Lokesh, who is currently a minister in his government, after the next five years.
Following the electoral defeat in Uttar Pradesh, a new battle has emerged between Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and the central figures in Modi’s team, including Amit Shah. The blame game for the loss and the protection of anti-Yogi ministers and leaders by the Delhi leadership have a clear objective to remove Yogi from the Chief Minister’s position and install a loyalist from Delhi. However, Yogi has managed to halt attempts to oust him through his own strength.
Controversies and questions continue to arise over the intention behind the controversial Supreme Court-stayed order to display the names of dhaba operators during the annual Kanwar Yatra. The BJP is in a bind because any attempt to stir up religious and Hindutva issues will face resistance from its secular coalition partners at the center.
The annual pilgrimage from Delhi to Haridwar along a 200 km road through western Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the monsoon season is a common sight. However, the BJP cannot digest the court’s intervention in this matter. Notably, KC Tyagi, the principal general secretary of Nitish Kumar’s party, Chirag Paswan, a minister in Modi’s government, and Jayant Chaudhary, a leader from the Rashtriya Lok Dal in western Uttar Pradesh, have openly opposed the government amidst nationwide controversies and resistance. Jayant Chaudhary, son of Ajit Singh and grandson of former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh, is also a minister in Modi’s government. He feels that if he does not oppose such orders that create hatred between Hindus and Muslims, it will ruin his future politics.
The BJP, along with coalition partners forming the central government, has kept key ministries and the Lok Sabha Speaker’s position to itself. From the first session of parliament and the current budget session, a strong opposition has encircled the Modi government in both houses. For the first time in ten years, Modi and his team are beginning to experience the bitter reality of running a minority and not a majority government.
For the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, this is a personally distressing situation because Modi has never been accustomed to working under such pressure. Although Modi and the BJP outwardly claim that they have been given a mandate by the people of the country to form the government for the third time, internally, there is a strong sense within the BJP that this is not truly a mandate, but rather a compulsion to run the government under the mercy of the TDP and JDU, which have previously betrayed the BJP.
The BJP’s predicament is also that if these two parties become unhappy any day, they will have no qualms about joining hands with the opposition alliance.
On July 23, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s desperate remarks in the parliament complex about the opposition overpowering the government within parliament surprised many. During the first session, opposition MPs disrupted Modi’s two-and-a-half-hour speech in response to the President’s address in the Lok Sabha. Modi stated that the opposition wants to crush the government in parliament. During the last session, the opposition tried to strangle him for two and a half hours. The BJP’s problem is also that during these attacks from the opposition, the TDP, JDU, or any other major constituent does not seem to stand by the BJP.
Although provisions for Andhra Pradesh and Bihar in the Union Budget have given Modi some confidence that his government can last for the full five years, this has increased deep dissatisfaction within the BJP and the governments of other states in the opposition’s INDIA alliance. States like Telangana, West Bengal, and Punjab have expressed deep dissatisfaction with the budget. It is believed that these conditions will make it very difficult for the BJP as an organization to work and expand its base in these states due to economic neglect.
*The writer is Delhi based Journalist
—–
Have you liked the news article?