Iftikhar Gilani
Ankara: On a bright Sunday, the last day of March, Murat Oktay, a veteran Turkish citizen, was seen standing in line outside a polling station in Ankara, basking in the gentle embrace of the spring sun. He has been loyal to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdogan since 2001.
But on this occasion, Oktay’s remarks hinted at a shift, symbolising Türkiye’s governance and course.
Oktay’s vote reflected the collective mood that evening as the vote count in the mayorial elections revealed a surprising result. Contrary to expectations, the results indicated that Erdogan’s influence on Turkey’s political landscape is diminishing.
While local elections are usually considered secondary on the world stage, they are of paramount importance in Türkiye. In the absence of state elections, they are an important democratic cornerstone after the presidency and the parliamentary structure.
Therefore, the role of mayors in Türkiye political weight is comparable to that of chief ministers in regions such as Uttar Pradesh in India or Punjab in Pakistan, emphasising the high political status they hold.
The election result was an unforeseen setback for President Erdogan’s right-wing AKP, as the secular Republican People’s Party (CHP), founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, was victorious in the major urban centres. This was in stark contrast to the previous year’s presidential elections, in which the CHP received only 22 percent of the vote.
This victory covered 14 major cities, 21 provinces and 337 district councils, where it received 37.74 percent of the national vote. In contrast, the AKP received 35.49 percent of the vote nationwide, a drop from the 42.87 percent it received in the 2019 local elections.
Among the significant successes were the re-elections of CHP politicians Ekrem İmamoğlu in Istanbul and Mansur Yavaş in Ankara, signalling a profound shift in Türkiye’s political landscape. In particular, the CHP’s independent campaign in these elections led to an impressive 15 percent increase in its share of the vote, in contrast to its previous alliance-based approach in the presidential campaign.
Political diversity in Turkey
Türkiye’s political landscape is as diverse as its geography, spanning the Akadenis region on the Mediterranean, Thrace, the Karadenis region on the Black Sea and the Anatolian or Asia Minor lowlands. The CHP’s advance into Central Anatolia shows that it is becoming increasingly attractive, despite its historical restriction to the elite coastal regions on the Mediterranean.
Mustafa Kemal Pasha, the architect of modern Türkiye, is revered for defining the nation’s current borders. Similarly, Erdogan is praised for transforming Türkiye into an economic powerhouse and raising the standard of living to a level comparable to European norms, especially in the area of infrastructure. He is also credited with modernising the previously underdeveloped regions of Anatolia and Karadeniz to meet the standards of the Mediterranean elite.
However, Erdogan’s long period in power and the economic difficulties the country is facing have led to increasing disillusionment among the population.
Erdogan’s admission of defeat and his commitment to democratic values was remarkable and signalled an unusual commitment in Turkish politics. This election signalled not only a change in leadership but also a profound shift in Türkiye’s political and social ethos and heralded the nation’s desire for a new direction.
Another important development in these elections is the emergence of a new Islamist grouping, signalling a possible political realignment in Türkiye. The once dormant Refa Party, founded by the late Prime Minister Najmuddin Erbakan, has been revived by his son Ali Fateh Erbakan under the banner of the New Welfare Party or New Refa Party.
In the last nine months, its membership has risen to 600,000 across the country. In these elections, it received 6.19 per cent of the vote, making it the third largest political force in the country, ahead of the Kurdish Democratic Party.
Astonishing parallels with Indian politics
There are striking parallels between Turkish and Indian politics. Many writers have compared Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s style of governance with Erdogan’s. But there are even more similarities between the opposition CHP and the Indian National Congress, especially in terms of their historical legacy and their ongoing efforts to reclaim political influence.
The CHP’s triumph in these elections offers instructive lessons for its Indian counterpart, especially the Congress.
Both the CHP, which was founded by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk in 1923 and the Congress have experienced political ups and downs. Despite their extensive experience in government, both were relegated to the opposition for long periods. The CHP has been out of power since 2002 and its last sole government was in 1979, reflecting the challenges for the Congress in India, which has been out of power since 2014 and has not ruled alone since 1989.
The recent local elections have brought renewed optimism for the CHP after its defeat in the presidential elections nine months earlier.
In the 1977 elections, the CHP had received 41 percent of the vote under Prime Minister Buland Ejavat. Since then, however, this share has fallen considerably to between 22 and 25 percent.
Following its defeat in the presidential election nine months ago, the party found itself in crisis. Its leader, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who is often referred to as the Turkish Gandhi, presented Erdogan with a huge challenge. But in his humility, he was no match for the charismatic Erdogan.
However, after the election defeat, voices were raised in his own party questioning the viability of his leadership. The party lost two presidential elections in a row under him, as well as two local elections. This was a similar situation to that of Rahul Gandhi after the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.
The humble 75-year-old former bureaucrat, sometimes called Kemal Gandhi for his slight stature and similar tactics, had to give way to Özgur Özel, who took over as CHP president in November 2023, much like Mallikarjun Kharge took over as Congress president. He was a compromise as the strong party leaders Ekram Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas did not want a strong leader dictating them from the party centre.
Like Kharge, the new president Özgur Özel also comes from a modest background. He was a pharmacist and the child of an immigrant family from Greece and is one of the few Turkish politicians who can speak English.
After being in opposition for decades, the CHP has moved away from radical secularism. During its time in government, it banned women from wearing the hijab and also restricted praying in public. However, the CHP has moved away from its strictly secular roots and towards a more centrist, inclusive approach. During the ongoing election campaign, the mayor of Ankara, Mansoor Yavash, was seen meeting worshippers in Ankara’s mosques and reminding them to vote.
One cannot overlook the economic undercurrents that helped the CHP to victory. The party capitalised on widespread discontent over Erdogan’s handling of the economy, rising inflation and the cost of living crisis, drawing parallels with the economic challenges in India.
As India is also in the midst of an election campaign, the CHP’s experience is both an inspiration and a warning for the Congress.
Much like the CHP, the Congress too has the potential to rejuvenate, regroup and forge strategic alliances within the states. If a trend emerges to challenge the BJP in the next elections, the opposition could well pose a significant challenge to Modi, similar to the pressure that the Turkish opposition exerts on Erdogan.
The Congress also needs to learn from the CHP’s ideological adaptability, which includes a comprehensive religious opening, recognition of the 1991 economic reforms and a move away from victimhood.
Celebrating the victory in front of his supporters in Istanbul, Ikram Ekrem Imamoglu said he had challenged the authoritarian system and the tradition of concentrating the power structure on one person in Turkiye, i.e. Erdogan, who has been the axis of power for the last two decades. Imamoglu said that democracy would be revitalised in Turkiye and the personal system would be ended.
As Turkish voters, burdened by inflation, price hikes and the cost of living in cities, punished Erdogan and gave a surprise victory to the CHP, Congress Party leaders have a ready-made speech like Imamoglu’s in case something similar happens in India.
The Congress party speechwriters only need to change the names in this script in case they manage to win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and oust Narendra Modi from power.
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