Iftikhar Gilani
NEW DELHI: In a dramatic reversal of election predictions, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has struggled to maintain its supremacy in the parliamentary elections of which the results were declared on June 4 and spread over the next morning hours.
The counting of votes showed a significant swing in voter sentiment and the BJP fell short of the 272 majority mark, a marked decline from its earlier dominance.
The BJP got 240 seats, a significant drop from 303 seats, so it will have to rely on 35 regional allies forming the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to get a total of 290 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, the lower house of the Indian Parliament. A simple majority requires 272 seats.
The opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) Bloc, led by the largest Congress party, made significant gains with 230 seats compared to the 91 seats in the previous chamber.
The Congress Party, the main opposition party, won 99 seats, an increase from 52 seats in 2019.
The Samajwadi Party (SP), a Congress ally, put up a stellar performance and led in Uttar Pradesh, India’s most populous state, with 37 seats, compared to just five seats previously. The state sends 80 members to the Indian Parliament.
The All India Trinamool Congress in West Bengal also performed excellently, winning 29 of the 42 seats in the state.
This shift was achieved by consolidating the anti-BJP votes and revitalising the coalition of Dalits, other backward castes, and Muslims.
Analysts suggest that the BJP’s emphasis on building the Ram temple on the site of the demolished Babri Masjid did not resonate as intended, as evidenced particularly by the BJP’s losses in Ayodhya, the site of the temple.
They say this indicates possible voter fatigue with Modi’s relentless focus on Hindu nationalism at the expense of pressing economic issues.
For the first time, Modi will have to rely heavily on his allies and signal possible concessions on various policy fronts. This dependence represents a significant change from the BJP’s previous autocratic rule over the past 10 years and portends a more complex governing landscape in the future.
The seven-phase elections, the largest democratic event in the world, began on 19 April and ended on 4 June, highlighting the immense scale and logistical challenges of Indian elections.
Declining dominance
The BJP’s ambitious slogan ‘Abki Baar 400 Paar‘ (Cross the 400 mark this time) quickly lost steam as the election results came in. The initial trends suggested that the NDA was struggling to cross the 300-seat mark. As the results emerged, it became clear that Prime Minister Modi could return to power for a third term, albeit without the expected resounding mandate.
Modi’s promises to accelerate economic growth and make India the third-largest economy in the world also failed to captivate voters as much as the 2019 campaign’s focus on national security and surgical strikes.
Opposition parties effectively highlighted the persistent economic challenges, unemployment, and falling demand in rural areas and the plight of farmers, where most voters reside.
A key factor in the BJP’s weaker performance was the unprecedented unity among opposition parties in the INDIA Bloc. This consolidation effectively neutralised the BJP’s advantage of a fragmented opposition vote. Recognising this threat, the BJP repeatedly tried to consolidate the Hindus by stoking imaginary fears of Muslims.
The united opposition succeeded in pooling votes in various constituencies and significantly compromised the BJP’s ambitious electoral goals. Rahul Gandhi’s enticing offers, such as one lakh rupees for every poor woman and the Agniveer military recruitment programme’s abolition appealed to many voters. While these promises were financially extravagant, they probably lured a large section of the electorate away from the BJP.
Modi’s key allies, senior politicians such as Janata Dal (United) chief and Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar and Telugu Desam Party chief Chandrababu Naidu, could play a crucial role in the post-election coalition landscape. Both politicians have frequently switched between the NDA and the opposition in the past, raising questions about their potential influence as kingmakers.
The JD-U has 12 of the 40 seats in Bihar, while the TDP has bagged 16 of the 25 seats in Andhra Pradesh. Despite their current alignment with the NDA and their support for Modi, their history suggests that they could switch allegiances depending on the political climate. Both are also known to be very secular, though they had supported the BJP-led government under Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee from 1998 to 2004.
The results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections mark a significant moment in Indian politics and signal the end of the era of unchallenged dominance of the BJP. The return to coalition politics brings back an era of negotiation and compromise reminiscent of India’s political landscape before Modi’s decisive mandate in 2014.
Modi’s government, freed from coalition constraints in its previous terms, had the room to implement significant reforms and drive economic growth. The return to coalition politics could pose new challenges and force Modi and his party to adapt to a more collaborative and less centralised approach to governance.
New political reality
As the BJP adjusts to this new reality, the role of its coalition partners will be crucial. Leaders experienced in coalition politics like LK Advani and Murli Manohar Joshi have withdrawn from the forefront, leaving a potential gap in the management of new alliances. The next few days will see intense political manoeuvring as both the BJP and the INDIA Bloc vie for the support of key players like Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu.
The fragile nature of coalition politics means that stability is not guaranteed. The resurgence of the opposition and the message from voters to the BJP to be cautious indicate that Indian politics is entering a phase of greater uncertainty and dynamism.
The message from voters is clear: while they recognise the progress made under Modi’s leadership, they also expect more inclusivity and greater consideration of the diverse needs of India’s vast population.
In this new political landscape, the coming months will be decisive for the direction of the Indian government and economic policy. Voters have expressed their desire for a balanced approach and the BJP will need to recalibrate its strategies to meet the evolving political and economic realities of the country.
—–
Have you liked the news article?