Hans Morgenthau - the great scholar of international relations and the father of classical realism - has had a determinative influence and impact on International Relations theory and practice. This is a known factoid. But the fact is that the United States - a hegemon of states - in actual and real terms - conceives and formulates its foreign policy in consonance with the great Morgenthau.
With writ large in its approach and orientation toward the Middle East since October 2023, various permutations and combinations since then, any other ‘school’ of IR, theory, and/or practice is mere academic commentary.
This includes so-called ‘soft power’ adumbrated by Harvard professor, Joseph Nye; in retrospect, it appears that Nye formulated ‘soft power’ as an antidote to America’s overweening hard power - not on moral grounds but on supremely ‘realist’ grounds to check balancing behaviour by other states in the international system and structure. In other words, to check the worst and ruthless instincts induced by power in what Raymond Aron called the ‘Imperial Republic’.
Obiter Dictum, in an eerie echo of what has been happening since October 2023, Morgenthau presciently posited that public opinion could never be a check on states’ behaviour - driven as it is by interest as power. The great scholar of IR also held that power maximization must be the ultimate goal of any state and that the balance of power provides security and prevents war.
But, this essay is not about American foreign policy or Israel. It is about the lessons the Global South should draw from world politics, events, and international relations since October 2023. In this sense, the essay has a clear normative ingress.
What stares the Global South in its face is that power matters. While this may sound axiomatic and a statement of the obvious to many, it needs to be restated. No mushy muddle-headed thinking should obscure this fundamental axiom of world politics. What, the question is, the Global South must do (post internalizing this axiom)?
First, the Global South must not ignore the international system and structure. It is within this that redemption (in terms of power and power politics) lies. Two, the Global South must understand the nature of power: primarily it is about hard, raw power.
Joseph Nye’s chiding of Stalin’s remark, ‘How many tank divisions does the Pope have?’ is just that - a snide remark to privilege his thesis and concept of soft power). Since October 7, the proverbial number of tanks matter - both on the battlefield and in geopolitics. Only the causality differs. How can the Global South enhance and imbibe power into its vitals?
One way is forming an alliance structure that amplifies its power. But hard and fast alliances can ‘chain’ states to paradigms and commitments that might be difficult to extricate from. The remedy is forming loose alliances (Call it a more robust structure of the ‘coalition of the willing’).
The second way is to develop hard power capabilities, which are just superb. In this day and age, advanced technology, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI), is all subservient to strategy, tactics, and their alignment by elite corps commanders, where there is the primacy of the political over the purely military.
This alignment can only happen if and when there is economic growth as well as development, the former to divert monies for military modernization and the latter to not let poverty sap the ‘will of the people’ to sustain war if need be.
Broadly speaking, total war is back. The Global South must be ready for this. It is perhaps only by adopting the prescriptions formulated in this essay that it may happen. But then would this paradigm not mean a world armed to the teeth would slide to war? Maybe. But there is an antidote. That lies in Morgenthau’s balance of power.
A robust balance of power can potentially lead to global peace. In this sense then, to paraphrase Inis Claude and twist his formulation ‘Swords may not be converted into ploughshares’, but swords need to be sharpened but kept in their sheaths, ready for action, just in case.
But, to recall my Australian mentor’s wise words, ‘All war is bad politics’. This pithy truism is not only laced with wisdom and insight but is the antidote to war which in essence is horrible. Herein lies the paradox though: to obviate the ‘pity of war’, the Global South be ready for war.
More than anything else, this is the lesson and central insight that the Global South must imbibe, internalize, and put into practice. Now is the time to make haste slowly!
(*The author is a Kashmir-based columnist)
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