Traveling through the heart of India, from bustling North India to the serene landscapes of South India, one embarks on a journey that transcends geographical distance.
As the train leaves behind the chaos of the north and heads south, it is not just the landscape that changes, but also the culture and politics.
When the noise is replaced by a strange silence and the train compartment and its floor appear cleaner and transparent, one assumes that the train has passed the last station of north India, Ballarpur in Maharashtra, and is now heading towards Karimnagar or Warangal in the southern state of Telangana.
The train journey, a microcosm of the country’s diversity, takes passengers through the Vindhyachal Mountains, which symbolize the border between North India and the Deccan Plateau. This transition is not only geographical, but also signifies a transition in ethos, politics, and identity.
The recent elections in 5 Indian states and their results have also underscored this North-South divide and highlighted the complex web of India’s political geography.
In the recent state elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scored victories in the northern states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. In the southern state of Telangana, the Congress party emerged victorious. In the North Eastern state of Mizoram, a local party took power. Just a few months ago, the Congress party had won in Karnataka, another southern state.
These results show that the southern states have closed their doors to the Hindu nationalist BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even at the height of his popularity, Modi has failed to gain a foothold in the southern states in the last nine years. South India has 132 parliamentary seats in the 543-member lower house compared to 411 seats in North India.
The southern states are led by various political groups, including the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, the Left Democratic Front (Communist) in Kerala, the YSR Congress party in Andhra Pradesh and the Congress in Telangana and Karnataka.
Economic importance of South India
The economic importance of South India cannot be underestimated. With cities like Bangalore in Karnataka, which has developed into the second Silicon Valley and the capital of science, and Tamil Nadu, which makes an important contribution to manufacturing and agriculture, the South Indian states are the economic backbone of South Asia.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have established themselves as pharmaceutical hubs, while Kerala boasts high levels of education, a thriving tourism industry and a human development index comparable to that of the US.
From space laboratories to hi-tech institutes, South India is home to important institutions that promote the country’s development. These states are self-sufficient in terms of revenue and contribute significantly to the central government’s budget, which is crucial to India’s overall financial position.
Historically, South India has maintained its own separate identity from the North. In the early 20th century, there were movements advocating a separate homeland called Dravida Nadu. These movements, led by personalities like Periyar EV Ramaswamy, centered on anti-Brahmanical sentiments and the quest for social equality and representation in administration.
Although the movement eventually died down, the recent rise of Hindutva or Hindu extremism in North India is creating pressure in South India, especially among educated lower caste Hindus.
While provincial elections often serve as a litmus test for parties, their results do not necessarily reflect the results of subsequent general elections. However, they do shape political narratives and strategies.
For example, the BJP’s defeat in the December 2018 state elections, which was accompanied by a 30-point drop in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, prompted the party to change its narrative for the 2019 general elections. In the subsequent general elections, it secured an overwhelming victory by focusing primarily on anti-Pakistan rhetoric and national security.
The killing of around 40 central police personnel in Pulwama in Kashmir in February 2019, two months before the parliamentary elections suited this narrative well, which also subsequently led to the Indian Air Force crossing the Line of Control and dropping bombs on the forests of Balakot in Pakistan.
Analysts believe that the BJP, which has certainly gained a foothold in North India, will no longer need to emphasize national security or anti-Pakistan rhetoric, and will focus on economic issues in the next general elections.
Rajasthan becomes a Hindutva laboratory
Meanwhile, the Congress party’s recent failures in state elections have shown that it is unable to attract voters in North India.
In Rajasthan, a state where the Congress and the BJP have alternately ruled every five years, the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), an extremist Hindu organization, is seeking to transform it into a Hindutva laboratory like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
In this state, unlike other states, the BJP used to pursue a secular line as its former leaders like Jaswant Singh, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and others, who came from former royal Rajput families, who historically maintained family ties with the Mughal rulers, resisted polarized politics.
This ideological shift has led to significant changes within the BJP. In these elections, the BJP did not field any Muslim candidates and instead focused on communal polarization and identity politics. In the previous governments, the BJP had influential Muslim ministers like Yunus Khan, who was denied the ticket and shown the door.
The BJP candidate from Alwar, Baba Balak Nath, who contested against Congress candidate Imran Khan, turned the election into a war between India and Pakistan. The nominee or Khalifa of Pakistan’s Pir Pagara in India, Saleh Muhammad, also lost the election in Pokhran in the border district of Jaisalmer. The BJP had fielded the head of the Taratara temple Mahant Swami Pratap Puri Maharaj against him, who polarized the elections. Saleh had taken over three years ago as Khalifa and Pir of Sindhi Muslims in the region from his father Ghazi Faqir Kalar, who passed away. His family has been influential in the politics of Jaisalmer district in the Indian state of Rajasthan.
Lessons for the Congress
Despite its setbacks, the Congress has managed to regain some ground by winning the important south Indian state of Telangana. This victory and that of Karnataka provide the Congress with important resources for the parliamentary elections in April/May 2024.
However, it has become evident that the Congress cannot challenge the BJP on its own, especially in North India where it has struggled to gain traction with the electorate. In Madhya Pradesh (MP), party leaders followed the BJP and took a soft Hindutva line to attract voters by visiting temples and getting themselves blessed by Hindu deities under flashbulbs. They must understand that if someone votes for Hindutva, why will he opt for soft-Hindutva of the Congress?
Indian voters are also increasingly demanding a clear agenda and policy platforms rather than personality-based politics. To stand a chance against Modi’s BJP in the upcoming general elections, the Congress must prioritize alliances with other opposition parties and adopt a more inclusive approach in seat distribution. Only then can it hope to topple Modi and reshape the country’s political landscape.
To summarize, the recent provincial election results in India highlight the stark North-South divide both politically and culturally. While South India continues to be an economic powerhouse, it also has its own identities and aspirations that distinguish it from the North. Ahead of the next general elections in India, the outcome will depend on how the political parties navigate this complex terrain and address the different needs and aspirations of a democracy of more than one billion people.
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Bhartiya Janata Party workers celebrates party victory in three states’ elections in Srinagar on Monday, December 04, 2023. KT Photo/Qazi Irshad
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Election results in 5 Indian states reveal strong North-South divide
The recent state election results have underlined the North-South divide and highlighted the complex web of India’s political geography
Traveling through the heart of India, from bustling North India to the serene landscapes of South India, one embarks on a journey that transcends geographical distance.
As the train leaves behind the chaos of the north and heads south, it is not just the landscape that changes, but also the culture and politics.
When the noise is replaced by a strange silence and the train compartment and its floor appear cleaner and transparent, one assumes that the train has passed the last station of north India, Ballarpur in Maharashtra, and is now heading towards Karimnagar or Warangal in the southern state of Telangana.
The train journey, a microcosm of the country’s diversity, takes passengers through the Vindhyachal Mountains, which symbolize the border between North India and the Deccan Plateau. This transition is not only geographical, but also signifies a transition in ethos, politics, and identity.
The recent elections in 5 Indian states and their results have also underscored this North-South divide and highlighted the complex web of India’s political geography.
In the recent state elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scored victories in the northern states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh. In the southern state of Telangana, the Congress party emerged victorious. In the North Eastern state of Mizoram, a local party took power. Just a few months ago, the Congress party had won in Karnataka, another southern state.
These results show that the southern states have closed their doors to the Hindu nationalist BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even at the height of his popularity, Modi has failed to gain a foothold in the southern states in the last nine years. South India has 132 parliamentary seats in the 543-member lower house compared to 411 seats in North India.
The southern states are led by various political groups, including the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) in Tamil Nadu, the Left Democratic Front (Communist) in Kerala, the YSR Congress party in Andhra Pradesh and the Congress in Telangana and Karnataka.
Economic importance of South India
The economic importance of South India cannot be underestimated. With cities like Bangalore in Karnataka, which has developed into the second Silicon Valley and the capital of science, and Tamil Nadu, which makes an important contribution to manufacturing and agriculture, the South Indian states are the economic backbone of South Asia.
Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have established themselves as pharmaceutical hubs, while Kerala boasts high levels of education, a thriving tourism industry and a human development index comparable to that of the US.
From space laboratories to hi-tech institutes, South India is home to important institutions that promote the country’s development. These states are self-sufficient in terms of revenue and contribute significantly to the central government’s budget, which is crucial to India’s overall financial position.
Historically, South India has maintained its own separate identity from the North. In the early 20th century, there were movements advocating a separate homeland called Dravida Nadu. These movements, led by personalities like Periyar EV Ramaswamy, centered on anti-Brahmanical sentiments and the quest for social equality and representation in administration.
Although the movement eventually died down, the recent rise of Hindutva or Hindu extremism in North India is creating pressure in South India, especially among educated lower caste Hindus.
While provincial elections often serve as a litmus test for parties, their results do not necessarily reflect the results of subsequent general elections. However, they do shape political narratives and strategies.
For example, the BJP’s defeat in the December 2018 state elections, which was accompanied by a 30-point drop in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity, prompted the party to change its narrative for the 2019 general elections. In the subsequent general elections, it secured an overwhelming victory by focusing primarily on anti-Pakistan rhetoric and national security.
The killing of around 40 central police personnel in Pulwama in Kashmir in February 2019, two months before the parliamentary elections suited this narrative well, which also subsequently led to the Indian Air Force crossing the Line of Control and dropping bombs on the forests of Balakot in Pakistan.
Analysts believe that the BJP, which has certainly gained a foothold in North India, will no longer need to emphasize national security or anti-Pakistan rhetoric, and will focus on economic issues in the next general elections.
Rajasthan becomes a Hindutva laboratory
Meanwhile, the Congress party’s recent failures in state elections have shown that it is unable to attract voters in North India.
In Rajasthan, a state where the Congress and the BJP have alternately ruled every five years, the RSS (Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh), an extremist Hindu organization, is seeking to transform it into a Hindutva laboratory like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh.
In this state, unlike other states, the BJP used to pursue a secular line as its former leaders like Jaswant Singh, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat and others, who came from former royal Rajput families, who historically maintained family ties with the Mughal rulers, resisted polarized politics.
This ideological shift has led to significant changes within the BJP. In these elections, the BJP did not field any Muslim candidates and instead focused on communal polarization and identity politics. In the previous governments, the BJP had influential Muslim ministers like Yunus Khan, who was denied the ticket and shown the door.
The BJP candidate from Alwar, Baba Balak Nath, who contested against Congress candidate Imran Khan, turned the election into a war between India and Pakistan. The nominee or Khalifa of Pakistan’s Pir Pagara in India, Saleh Muhammad, also lost the election in Pokhran in the border district of Jaisalmer. The BJP had fielded the head of the Taratara temple Mahant Swami Pratap Puri Maharaj against him, who polarized the elections. Saleh had taken over three years ago as Khalifa and Pir of Sindhi Muslims in the region from his father Ghazi Faqir Kalar, who passed away. His family has been influential in the politics of Jaisalmer district in the Indian state of Rajasthan.
Lessons for the Congress
Despite its setbacks, the Congress has managed to regain some ground by winning the important south Indian state of Telangana. This victory and that of Karnataka provide the Congress with important resources for the parliamentary elections in April/May 2024.
However, it has become evident that the Congress cannot challenge the BJP on its own, especially in North India where it has struggled to gain traction with the electorate. In Madhya Pradesh (MP), party leaders followed the BJP and took a soft Hindutva line to attract voters by visiting temples and getting themselves blessed by Hindu deities under flashbulbs. They must understand that if someone votes for Hindutva, why will he opt for soft-Hindutva of the Congress?
Indian voters are also increasingly demanding a clear agenda and policy platforms rather than personality-based politics. To stand a chance against Modi’s BJP in the upcoming general elections, the Congress must prioritize alliances with other opposition parties and adopt a more inclusive approach in seat distribution. Only then can it hope to topple Modi and reshape the country’s political landscape.
To summarize, the recent provincial election results in India highlight the stark North-South divide both politically and culturally. While South India continues to be an economic powerhouse, it also has its own identities and aspirations that distinguish it from the North. Ahead of the next general elections in India, the outcome will depend on how the political parties navigate this complex terrain and address the different needs and aspirations of a democracy of more than one billion people.
—–
Bhartiya Janata Party workers celebrates party victory in three states’ elections in Srinagar on Monday, December 04, 2023. KT Photo/Qazi Irshad
—–
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