“Shadowy incidents, indicating possible foul play and abuse of power, do not exist in a vacuum. They are intrinsically linked to arrogance and display of brute power propelled by desperation that stems from a sense of defeat.”
Anuradha Bhasin
The curious case of Surat, where the BJP’s Mukesh Dalal was declared elected uncontested from the Lok Sabha seat, a day after the nomination papers of Congress candidates were rejected on grounds of “discrepancies in verification of signatures” of their proposers and withdrawal of eight remaining nominees from the race, has revived the ghost of Abdul Khaliq, a deputy commissioner in Kashmir under the Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad regime.
Much has been written about Kashmir’s notoriously rigged election through the decades. In the 1957 assembly elections, the National Conference led by Bakshi won 35 of the 43 seats in the Valley uncontested because Khaliq, at the behest of Bakshi, declared the nomination papers of most of the opposition candidates as null and void. In days predating the meme culture, jokes orally passed on through generations dubbed those elected as ‘Khaliq-made-MLAs’. Despite Bakshi and Khaliq becoming the brunt of jokes, the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir saw a repeat of the drama of 1957 in the subsequent election of 1962 – both in the Valley and Jammu region. The Khaliq-made MLAs had become the norm despite adverse reports and widespread protests.
Is the case of Surat, where the Congress candidates have mysteriously disappeared and both the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have accused the BJP and the election officials of foul play, going to become the new norm?
Unlike Kashmir, rarely have candidates been elected unopposed elsewhere in India. There are only 23 such recorded instances, most of them in the decade of the 50s when the pool of candidates was thin and most contests were direct one-to-one electoral battles. In light of this history of Indian elections, the Surat case is not only glaring. It is also not an aberration.
In Arunachal Pradesh with a 60-member state legislature, 10 BJP candidates were declared elected unopposed, after their rival Congress candidates either withdrew their papers or their nominations were rejected. Subsequently, in Madhya Pradesh’s Khajurao, the nomination of the only Samajwadi Party (SP) candidate, Meera Yadav, was canceled. The INDIA Bloc has leveled allegations of conspiracy against the BJP as the rejection is seen to benefit the latter.
“Is the case of Surat, where the Congress candidates have mysteriously disappeared and both the Congress and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) have accused the BJP and the election officials of foul play, going to become the new norm?”
It would be too much of a coincidence that all those elected unopposed or given leverage through nomination paper rejections and the mysterious epidemic of withdrawals belong to the BJP. That 10 contestants would disappear from the fray in Surat further elaborates this pattern, which enhances the fears of lack of ‘fair play’ in an electoral battle where power dynamics between the ruling BJP and the rest are already skewed in terms of financial and human resources and the electronic voting machines are inspiring public skepticism.
In the backdrop is the Supreme Court verdict on Chandigarh Mayor elections two months ago. The Court overturned the Chandigarh Mayor election results, tainted by misconduct allegations, and declared the AAP-Congress candidate as the winner, prompting the resignation of BJP’s newly elected Mayor.
The Chandigarh case also takes a cue from the Kashmir playbook. The notorious rigging of the 1987 assembly elections witnessed the declaration of the National Conference’s losing candidate, Ghulam Mohi-u-Din, as the winner in Amirakadal even though more votes were polled by Muslim United Front candidate, Yusuf Shah alias Syed Salahuddin, who later picked up the gun and became the Commander-in-chief of the Hizb-ul-Mujahideen.
Jammu and Kashmir offers a lens to understand the present season of elections in India. Such shadowy incidents, indicating possible foul play and abuse of power, do not exist in a vacuum. They are intrinsically linked to arrogance and display of brute power propelled by desperation that stems from a sense of defeat. So, is the BJP rattled?
The answer is best understood by looking at Kashmir which has played a pivotal role in all of BJP’s elections. In Lok Sabha elections, in terms of numerical strength, Jammu and Kashmir (inclusive of one seat of Ladakh – which has been hived from the rest of the erstwhile state) is not very significant. It adds six seats to a total kitty of 543 seats across the country. But Kashmir has a market value for the BJP whether it is about the promise of ending terrorism, threat from its Muslim majority, or highlighting the victory of Article 370.
The developments of the past five years and the muscular actions of the BJP-led Narendra Modi government in Kashmir indicate that the 2024 elections were significant for the BJP both as a marketing prop and also for planting its lotus in the Valley.
However, the almost complete abandonment of Kashmir in terms of both winning seats and foregrounding the Kashmir story in its election campaign across the country, reveals the sagging morale of the party.
Jammu and Kashmir’s parliamentary constituencies, particularly the three seats in the Muslim-majority Valley, matter to the BJP because it helps them sell the narrative that things in the region have normalised and people are happy about it – something that they have been trumpeting since 2019. To achieve this goal, the BJP tried everything under the sun, from suppressing political groups and gerrymandering boundaries to offering affirmative actions and sops and creating more polarization within an already fragmented society.
However, the recent announcement that BJP will not be fielding candidates in Kashmir Valley indicates a belated realisation of the changing tide that is not in their favour. The public disappointment is so acute that barring the star campaigns thrown in by Modi, his aides Amit Shah and Rajnath Singh, the local BJP cadres are hesitant to effectively canvass for votes even in the Hindu right-wing bastions in Jammu region. In Ladakh, where anger has erupted in recent protests, BJP is finding it tough to even find a candidate, even though the sitting MP from the region is from the party.
In Ladakh, where anger has erupted in recent protests, BJP was finding it tough to even find a candidate, after the sitting MP from the region – Jamyang Tsering Namgyal – was reluctant to join the fray. In a belated development, BJP announced Tashi Gyalson’s candidature from Ladakh.
In Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP has already conceded defeat. There are now evident signs that this may be true elsewhere. Some of them are too glaring to be missed.
In January when Modi proclaimed himself as the messenger of God and inaugurated the Ram Temple amid much hype, it was an indication that BJP’s campaign would be pivoted to its three favourite contentious issues – Ayodhya, Kashmir and Uniform Civil Code.
While these elements have been thrown in for some effect, BJP’s campaign largely oscillates between the vague ‘Modi ki Guarantee’ and hate speeches. The first is a knee-jerk response to the visionary manifesto of the opposition. The second is rooted in BJP’s ideological moorings. The tinge of schizophrenia and tone that swings between these two poles reveals the party’s struggle to find a narrative.
This desperation can be best summed in Ghalib’s words:
Be-khudi be-sabab nahin Ghalib,
Kucch tau hai jiski pardadari hai
Adherence to democratic norms and propriety can hardly be expected from a party, whose underpinnings are contrary to constitutional values and whose ten-year rule has involved consolidation of power by weakening of democratic institutions. But the Election Commission of India, once known for its exemplary conduct, must stand up and restore the sanctity of the democratic process and the reputation of the institution. With many petitions related to election fair play pending in the Supreme Court, the hallowed corridors of justice must also deliver.
(This article has been updated. A previous version of the article published on April 21 mentioned the BJP has yet to finalise a candidate in Ladakh. On April 22, the party announced its candidature).
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