Numan Bhat & Mehroob Mushtaq
SRINAGAR: Kashmir is bracing for tough months ahead as changing weather patterns, owing to diminishing signs of rain and snow and phenomenally rising temperatures, will strike a blow to the region’s ecology and economy.
Over the years, the region has seen less rainfall and snowfall. The Meteorological Department says this is happening because winter temperatures are rising. January, when temperatures are usually sub-zero, has experienced average day temperatures of around 13 degrees Celsius.
The winters in Kashmir have been unusually warm. Despite the variability in weather patterns, like the colder December in 2023 with a bit of snow in high places, the first half of the month received less rain than usual. It was only 11.6 mm, which is 47% less than what Kashmir normally gets.
Chillai Kalan in Kashmir is typically snowy, but this year it has been quite dry. This marks the third winter in the last ten years without snow, especially after 2014. Researchers say there might be 30% to 70% less snow by the end of this century, indicating that the changing climate in Kashmir could have long-term impacts.
The alarmingly depleting glaciers that feed the water bodies of the region are adding to the crisis, warning of acute water shortage in the years to come. A recent study by Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, a glaciology expert and Vice Chancellor of the University of Kashmir, warns of 68% glacial loss by the century’s end. It highlights an annual mass reduction of 35 centimeters in over 1,200 glaciers in the Himalayan region between 2000 and 2012 due to the worsening climate change.
Adverse Impact Of A Dry Winter
In an interview with the Kashmir Times, Dr Rouf-ur-Rafiq, an Environmentalist and Assistant Professor in the Higher Education Department of the Government of Jammu and Kashmir, stated that the shortage of rain does not only impact farms. It has several other deleterious impacts on the flora and fauna of the region as well as the lives of the people.
Among the causes he mentioned, he spoke at length about the adverse impacts of a dry season on the region’s water ecosystems. He particularly emphasised on Dal Lake which is home to many migratory birds and the lifeline of the residents and houseboat owners, whose economy is dependent on it.
“If the climate stays the same, it could affect the habitation of 4 lakh migratory birds,” he said. “The plants and animals in the region are facing difficulties due to the changing climate. Species that are native and accustomed to the usual weather are finding it tough to adapt to the environmental changes. The natural balance that helped different forms of life in Kashmir is now at risk, and this might create issues for the interconnected web of life,” added Dr Rouf-ur-Rafiq.
Even animals that rely on snow for their sustenance would face an existential crisis. Animal species like mountain goats might have to go hungry or will be compelled to search for newer places as snow is essential for their food and shelter in the winters.
Less snow means that temperatures would be warmer and water bodies would begin to dry up, and this can cause various issues for the survival of both animals and humans.
Impact On Agriculture and Economy
A far greater worry for the people of Kashmir is the immense impact on agriculture. Farmers, who relied on consistent rain and snow, are now uncertain about their harvests and how lack of snow will impact their lives because they fear there isn’t enough water for irrigation.
“In Kashmir, when the snow on the mountains melts in the beginning of summer, it gives water to our rivers and streams. If there isn’t sufficient snow, people in the lower areas will have issues. Farmers like me in areas like Pampore are concerned about not having sufficient water for crops, impacting our agriculture,” Abdul Salam Bhat, a farmer told the Kashmir Times.
Snow plays a crucial role in Jammu and Kashmir’s winter. Many people depend on it because when it melts in spring, it provides water to millions in the region, making up 75% of their water supply.
In June, many parts of Kashmir experienced a shortage of rain, almost like a drought. The Irrigation and Flood Control Department suggested farmers grow crops like maize instead of rice to cope, but not everyone followed the advice.
Mushtaq Ahmad from Shopian District says, “The decreasing water levels in rivers, especially the Jhelum, in late June caused significant issues. Many, like me, had to adjust our plans. Instead of rice, we switched to crops like pulses and maize that require less water. The fields, once used for rice, are now filled with maize,” he said.
Zahoor Ahmad, who runs a snow cart, said, “Not having enough snow is affecting my work. Many tourists left Kashmir without seeing snow this year.”
The Gulmarg ski resort in northern Kashmir’s Baramulla district has few tourists because there’s not enough snow. Usually, the resort is full of people skiing and draws lots of tourists around this time, but now it looks empty without any snowfall.
Sameer Ahmad, owner of a tour and travel business, told the Kashmir Times said, “The climate crisis is affecting our business. Changes in weather patterns and extreme conditions impact travel plans. The crisis of no snowfall has resulted in many tourists canceling their plans. The absence of snow affects the appeal of certain destinations. It’s a challenge for us as many visitors seek snow-related experiences.”
Kamal Khanna, who lives in Haryana, told Kashmir Times, “We planned a seven-day trip from January 10 to January 18 to enjoy the snow in Gulmarg. Sadly, there’s no snow, and instead of the anticipated white landscape, it looks brown, like other areas in northern India.”
Even in hilly places like Gurez, Karnah, Keran, and Mughal Road, which usually get a lot of snow in winter, there has been little or no snow. Popular tourist spots like Pahalgam, Sonamarg, Doodhpathri, Yusmarg, and others in Kashmir, as well as Bhaderwah, Kishtwar, Poonch, and Rajouri in Jammu, have also received much less snow compared to previous years.
The dry cold has frozen lakes like Dal Lake, and there’s not enough water for taps and pipes. Reservoirs are low, causing worries because there hasn’t been enough snow to fill them up.
Betab Valley (Previously known as Hajan Valley) Spring near Pahalgam in Kashmir during 2023-24 winters. Photo/Numan Bhat"/>
Rising Temperatures
As per Kashmir weather, an independent weather forecaster, Srinagar, the summer capital of Jammu and Kashmir, had a warmer day with a temperature of 15°C on January 13, which is unusually high for this time of the year, and was warmer than many cities of northern India. On January 15, Pahalgam experienced day temperatures as high as 14.1 degrees Celsius.
According to Sonam Lotus, the director of the IMD Leh Centre, there’s no expected Western disturbance or snowfall until January 25. The IMD’s forecast indicates a 79% shortfall in rainfall for December 2023. The initial ten days of January this year have also been dry. If the IMD’s prediction is accurate, it could cause issues for hosting the Fourth Khelo India National Winter Games scheduled for Gulmarg on February 2.
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