JAMMU/SRINAGAR: The upcoming Lok Sabha elections in Jammu & Kashmir, the first ever since the revocation of Article 370 and the bifurcation of the state into two Union Territories, assume significance for many reasons, primarily that they signal the resumption of political activity after a long hiatus of five years.
With electoral boundaries drastically redrawn, and the political landscape of J&K having undergone significant shifts, the outcome of this pivotal election contest will not only shape the representation of J&K in the Lok Sabha but also reflect the evolving political scenario in the region.
Jammu and Kashmir UT has 5 Lok Sabha seats, including Baramulla-Beerwah-Budgam, Srinagar-Shopian, Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch, Udhampur, and Jammu which will go to polls in five phases. Ladakh which became separate Union territory in 2019 will be going to polls for one Lok Sabha seat amidst heightened tensions and disappointments.
What’s At Stake?
The parliamentary elections, though not considered as important as assembly elections locally, assume greater significance for all the regional parties, particularly in the Valley, as it finally gives them a chance to reclaim their space and rebuild their constituencies in a changed political landscape since 2019.
For the main national parties – the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Congress – these six seats are significant for improving their respective national tally. The electoral contest between the BJP and Congress in Jammu and Kashmir also holds significance due to their divergent ideological stances, in which the region features prominently or indirectly.
In 2019 elections, BJP won the two Lok Sabha seats in Jammu and one in Ladakh. The National Conference made a clean sweep in Kashmir Valley with three seats.
The task at hand for the Congress is to revive its hold in the Jammu region as well as Ladakh, after ceding the space to the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in 2014 and 2019 respectively. By and large, it is anticipated that there will be a direct contest in all these three constituencies.
On the other hand, the BJP’s ambition is not only to retain its hold over the Jammu region but also to make inroads into the Valley, where the National Conference (NC) is contesting three seats backed by the Congress lead INDIA Bloc. Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), though a member of the alliance, would be fielding its candidates in all the Valley seats following differences with the NC, signaling ruptures within the alliance.
Several other regional players entering the fray, particularly in the Valley, while adding some dynamism to the now-diminished regional narrative entail a division of votes that could suit the BJP.
However, these regional parties, primarily the NC and PDP which have previously pivoted their electoral narrative to autonomy and dialogue, face the uphill task of coining a new slogan amidst the changed reality of Jammu and Kashmir being robbed of its special status, a final seal of approval of which was given by the Supreme Court in December last.
Factors at Play
Electioneering, however, would be more than simply a matter of tussle for space and show of strength. Many factors, which may vary from region to region, are likely to play a key role in shaping the outcomes.
Among some of the common factors, the most important are increasing disenchantment against the Bhartiya Janata Party over the loss of special status, statehood, parceling out large chunks of lands to investors from outside, rising unemployment, and other issues. Blunting these would be the dynamics of the multiplicity of contestants, the alleged fielding of proxies, the disunity in the I.N.D.I. Alliance and the new anxieties over increasing reservation quotas at the expense of Open Merit.
Another thing that adds complexity to the electoral dynamics and may be a decisive factor is the redrawing of electoral boundaries in several constituencies.
The top-down approach involved in the delimitation exercise, ignoring consultation and alleged to be one of the worst cases of ‘gerrymandering’ that will benefit BJP’s foothold by dilution of Muslim and Kashmiri influence.
This is likely to partially impact the Baramulla constituency which now includes Beerwah and Budgam with sizeable Shia presence and Jammu constituency where the Hindu domination has been further strengthened by eliminating Rajouri-Poonch and substituting it with Reasi and Mahore.
The impact of the delimitation would be fully felt in the Rajouri-Poonch and Anantnag constituency, carved by ignoring factors of public convenience, geographical and cultural contiguity, and designed to completely alter the demographic calculus. That this would help the BJP to reduce the Muslim homogeneity and make inroads into South Kashmir is a no-brainer.
Added to this are the affirmative actions of the BJP government in favour of the Paharis, who form a substantial chunk of vote-bank in this seat. Grant of Scheduled Tribe status to the Paharis with 10 percent quota in reservations ahead of the elections is being seen as a measure to woo the Paharis, comprising both Muslims and Hindus.
Map of Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies in Jammu and Kashmir. Map/CEO J&KWhat are the possibilities?
Ladakh
Of all the seats, the safest to predict is Ladakh. Though none of the parties have fielded their candidates yet, it may be a direct contest between the BJP and INDIA Bloc. As per the INDIA Bloc seat-sharing arrangement, Congress will be fielding its candidate backed by the National Conference. In 2019, BJP’s Jamyang Tsering Namgyal won with 33.94% of the votes against independent candidate Sajjad Hussain Kargili.
Much has changed ever since and Ladakh could be a cakewalk for the INDIA Bloc, where resentment against the BJP and Narendra Modi’s government have phenomenally exacerbated over issues of employment, political disenfranchisement, dilution of hill councils, corporate land grab with deleterious impact on ecology, Chinese incursions and BJP reneging on its promise of granting the region the sixth schedule status.
These grievances are being articulated through sustained protests including activist Sonam Wangchuk’s 21-day hunger strike. In an unprecedented manner, the heightened anger in the cold desert has bridged the traditional divide between Buddhist-dominated Leh and Muslim-dominated Kargil, where in the recent hill council elections the BJP could bag only 2 out of 26 seats.
Jammu Region
Both the parliamentary constituencies of Jammu are headed for a direct contest between the Congress and the BJP, where the latter is facing public disappointment post-370 revocation, anti-incumbency, and allegations of incompetence of the local representatives – Dr Jitendra Singh (Udhampur) and Jugal Kishore (Jammu).
The BJP is left with only the Narendra Modi’s popularity and the communal polarization to bank upon. Whether the Congress and its two candidates in fray, Choudhary Lal Singh (who faces allegations of land grabbing) and Raman Bhalla, who have substantial heft in some pockets, can blunt these odds remains to be seen. So far, they appear to have infused some dynamism into the election season.
Lal Singh would also have to contend with G.M. Saroori in fray. Saroori is the candidate of Ghulam Nabi Azad’s Democratic Progressive Azad Party (DPAP) and has a formidable vote bank in the Chenab Valley. His entry into the fray may dent the Muslim homogeneity of the region to some extent, even though many see him as a proxy of the BJP.
Kashmir Valley
The Azad factor is also likely to spring some surprise in Anantnag. Azad entering the fray from Anantnag-Rajouri Lok Sabha seat instead of his home constituency Udhampur-Doda has raised speculations about a tacit understanding with the BJP. Within the political circles, there is buzz that either the BJP will be backing Azad or using him to divide the anti-BJP vote bank.
In an interview with the PTI, former chief minister Omar Abdullah said, “The fact that he is not fighting from Udhampur and that he is fighting from Anantnag-Rajouri-Poonch, clearly there is (something) more than what meets the eye.”
Several other factors make election outcomes in the Valley unpredictable. One of the most significant is that the PDP and the National Conference (NC), both partners in Jammu and Kashmir’s INDIA bloc, are set to compete for the three Lok Sabha seats in the valley.
The mutual suspicions and grudges nursed by both parties and the inability of the INDIA Bloc to end the rift may lead to a division of votes. PDP’s Mehbooba Mufti expressed disappointment over NC’s unilateral decision, lamenting the lack of consultation. Abdullah maintained that PDP’s deviation from previous agreements led to the current situation.
In the backdrop of this present rift is the statement made by National Conference president, Dr Farooq Abdullah, hinting at keeping all windows open for anyone including the BJP. Though the senior Abdullah is reputed for his glib talk, Omar Abdullah dismissed such an eventuality. Yet, this may have contributed to denting the relations between the two parties.
BJP’s ambitions in Valley
The division of votes with PDP and NC pitted against each other can play a crucial role in a region that is caught between militarization and calls for election boycott, and has in the past often registered abysmally low polling. Though the separatists have been silenced, much will depend on whether the Valley’s voters feel enthused to vote or not and whether the elections are marked by an element of freeness and fairness.
The NC-PDP split is being seen as an advantage for the other regional players and the BJP. A report in a section of national media hinted at the BJP toying with the idea of an alliance with these three parties and backing their candidature in the Valley – Sajad Lone of Peoples Conference from Baramulla, Azad from Anantnag and Altaf Bukhari’s Apni Party in Srinagar.
This is less likely as it disrupts BJP’s plans of hoisting its own saffron flag in Kashmir with over 96 percent Muslim majority. In the 2020 elections, when some BJP candidates bagged seats in the District Development Council elections, it celebrated it as a symbolic victory.
For the BJP, making its mark in the Valley in the Lok Sabha is crucial for several reasons. It has been a long-held ideological desire to wipe out Kashmir’s Muslim domination electorally.
With its lofty dreams in the parliamentary elections in Kashmir, the BJP is also testing the waters for the assembly elections and fulfill its ambition of having a Hindu BJP chief minister in Jammu and Kashmir.
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