Peace between Israel and Hamas appears to hold - at least for now. This peaceful interlude post a ceasefire negotiated between the main parties - Israel and Hamas - Arab rulers, Turkey and above all the United States can be a very good starting point - for lasting peace in the Middle East. The question is how? A rather vigorous answer can be arrived at by postulating the contextual backdrop to the ceasefire induced peace.
Post October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas, Israel launched what could be called ‘total war’ on Gaza. Unflinching, unyielding and maximalist, the war on Gaza and its people morphed into a broader strategy for Israel. It appeared to choose to rejig the power - political and military equations in the Middle East.
First in the cross hairs of Israel was Hezbollah, which was decapitated with the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah. (So accurate was Israel’s intel-most likely HUMINT-that Nasrallah’s successors were also immediately assassinated). This ‘symbolic breaking of the back’ of Hezbollah was followed by attacks on Iran- Hezbollah’s backer.
These attacks followed a somewhat similar pattern - decapitation of Iran’s military leadership. The ultimate target appeared to have been Ayatollah Khamenei - whose assassination, in Israel’s calculations, would hamstrung, and make it vulnerable to a ‘people’s revolt’ (assumed to be exhausted and unhappy with the country’s ruling establishment). But in an instance of resistance cum techno-nationalism, Iran clawed back tenaciously, and its people rallied around its government.
The war would have ground on - but the variable that ensured a tenuous peace was Donald Trump’s intervention. These major events were followed by Israel’s attacks on Houthi’s, the power vacuum in Syria and the flight of Bashar al Assad, with the attacks on Hamas’ negotiators in Qatar - an ally of sorts of the US, which houses American bases.
These are the structural features and their delineation post October 7, 2023. But Israel potentially could absorb - militarily and economically - their costs. But the rub lay in conceptual, symbolic and reputational terms. As the war ground on, with Israel showing no signs of backing off, images of starvation and wanton killing became a feature of news, social media feeds and so on.
Campus protests erupted in the US. People in and across the western world protested their government’s uncritical support of Israel. Images of hunger, destitution and exodus induced by the war went viral. All this was described by many as genocide in total contravention of international law.
Gradually and inexorably, Israel’s reputation suffered a massive dent. At issue here was both Israel’s self-image, the image it has cultivated in the West and above all the future of Zionism. While there were backroom maneuverings, encouraged by the US, but the finale was the attacks on Qatar - a momentous event that had far reaching implications on the US standing, force posture and political equations in the Middle East.
In a world that straddles the zone of bi-polarity and tri-polarity, it appears that American strategists by not leaning on Israel were ceding space to other actors. All these themes, events and pressure points congealed together to create conditions for a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.
But this analysis is incomplete without the role of the 47th president of the US, Donald Trump. The former real estate Mogul seized on the opportunity for peace and leaned on all parties. A vigorous and serious position on peace, and a firm no to Israel and Hamas worked.
Aided by the support of Arab states and Turkey, lo and presto, a ceasefire took place. Without the full and robust backing of Donald Trump, the war would have ground on. This is as curious as it is significant.
It is curious because Trump led the charge for peace, and it worked. It is also curious because of the man’s style: the US president, with respect to warring parties, lets them fight it till they reach a burning point and pain points for both becoming intolerable. His well-timed interventions then bring about the desired results.
It is significant because Trump’s MAGA formulation is based on a retreat of America from the world - it can be desired as a form of loose isolationism. The corollary or even implication of a quasi-isolationist America is that the world deal with itself.
But in the case of the Hamas-Israel ceasefire, there was robust American intervention aided and deftly supported by a coalition of states. The latter hints to multilateralism. If American intervention along with multilateralism brought peace in the Middle East, there is irony at work here.
But ultimately, it may all boil down to space(s) and opportunities that presented themselves overlaid by deft Trumpian leadership. All this is well and good. But the real issue of import now is lasting peace between principal antagonists in the Middle East.
Can the ceasefire be a prelude to that? Maybe. How?
Trump, despite the humungous obstacles in arriving at the ceasefire between Palestinians and Israel had addressed the structural aspects and nature of the issue.
The real challenge lies in the emotional and abstract (but defining) aspect of the conflict. These pertain, to employ a metaphor, a balance between the ‘Lexus and the Olive Tree’ – with the dice loaded in favor of the Olive tree(s) for all. Can Trump do that?
While hope springs eternal but with political will, determination and sagacity, unconventional methods and leadership style, demonstrated ably by Trump, nothing is impossible-even peace in the Middle East!
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