The geopolitical landscape has grown increasingly turbulent with Donald Trump's recent Board of Peace initiative and Greenland ambitions, reflecting broader great power competition.
Within this context, the United States' 2025 Pentagon report on China's military power reveals deep-seated anxieties amid great power transition. The report details China's pursuit of a "world-class" military by mid-century, capable of safeguarding what Beijing defines as core national interests.
China's vision extends beyond regional concerns to a global, rather 'glocal’, ambition, supported by diplomatic and economic networks spanning continents. Western capitals frame this as assertive expansion, while Beijing views it as legitimate growth, national rejuvenation, and protection of historically compromised interests. PLA modernisation, including nuclear capabilities, cyber operations, and blue-water naval power, underpins this defense posture.
The stated objective of "national rejuvenation" by 2049 is restoring China's historical greatness culturally, economically, and politically. It serves as a powerful mobilizing force, with Taiwan central to territorial integrity concerns.
South Asia exemplifies this divergence in perspective most sharply. In this strategically significant region of immense demographic weight and historical rivalries, China's multifaceted engagement is driven by economic ambition, security concerns, and strategic competition.
The Belt and Road Initiative, American alliances, and intricate local dynamics intersect here, creating a complex mosaic of opportunity and tension, even as the U.S. sets the cat among the pigeons with a renewed global ambition.
The South Asian Chessboard: Interdependence and Rivalry
South Asia's 1.8 billion people inhabit a dynamic arena where nations maneouvre between great powers to maximise their agency. While China's approach is often described as "encirclement" of regional rival India, a nuanced view reveals a strategy of deep economic integration and strategic partnerships that create interdependencies, shaping the region in Beijing's favour.
The cornerstone of this engagement is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), $62 billion flagship BRI project with a network of roads, railways, pipelines and tunnels. China's western Xinjiang region and the Arabian Sea are connected by CPEC, which reaches the deep-water port of Gwadar in Baluchistan.
This provides China with an important alternative route for energy imports, partially avoiding the Strait of Malacca chokepoint, a perennial strategic vulnerability.
Gwadar offers a vantage point close to the Strait of Hormuz, through which a lot of the world's oil flows, and it could also provide logistical support for the PLA Navy in the future.
Despite heavy debt, CPEC offers Pakistan infrastructure development and economic growth opportunities. It provides a strategic counterbalance to India, access to military technology, and consolidates the "all-weather friendship" with Beijing, though the relationship faces challenges.
The restive province of Baluchistan, where Gwadar is located, has a long history of insurgency fueled by grievances over resource distribution and autonomy over which Pakistan and India trade charges.
The Makran coast, which runs along Baluchistan, also trigger anxieties for India and the US in terms of security and the long-term effects of a large Chinese presence. Reportedly, Pakistan's significant debt to China exceeds $30 billion.
Other significant Makran ports include Pasni, Ormara, Jiwani, and Jask along the Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Washington has shown keen interest in one of these ports. Meanwhile, the Pakistan-Iran gas pipeline, previously halted under Western pressure, may be restarted by Islamabad and Tehran.
Kashmir Component
The regional equilibrium with India is directly impacted by this strategic partnership. Conflict between India and Pakistan, which has been centered on Kashmir, now has a China component.
Unilateral abrogation of Article 370 and 35A and converting Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories in 2019, Ladakh and J&K, along with the fatal clash in Galwan in 2020, China's unresolved border disputes with India along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) create a powerful two-front anxiety for New Delhi.
India sees China's support for Pakistan as part of a coordinated pressure strategy, whether it comes in the form of diplomatic support for Kashmir, arms sales, or infrastructure in Pakistan-administrated Jammu & Kashmir (PaJK).
After the April 2025 Pahalgam attack in Kashmir, the fragility was clear. New Delhi suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and launched open-ended 'Operation Sindoor,' followed by aerial skirmishes with Pakistan, highlighting escalation risks between nuclear-armed neighbours. China's role was contextual, not explicit. Its military exercises along the LAC during this period reminded India of broader security challenges, keeping New Delhi's strategic focus divided.
A Network of Relationships Beyond Pakistan
Beyond the "iron brother," China's South Asia strategy involves carefully cultivating relationships throughout the region, each with its own set of considerations.
Afghanistan: China maintains cautious ties with the Taliban, seeking mineral resources and preventing the country from harboring Uyghur separatists. The Wakhan Corridor offers a China-Afghanistan connection, but instability, ISIS-K, and border conflicts threaten Chinese investments.
Nepal and Bhutan: Through BRI, China offers Nepal infrastructure links to Tibet, reducing dependence on India and increasing Kathmandu's leverage. In Bhutan, China uses "salami-slicing" tactics in border areas like Doklam to negotiate from incremental strength.
Sri Lanka and the Maldives: Hambantota Port's 99-year lease to China after Sri Lanka's debt crisis exemplifies BRI financing risks. Beijing calls it commercial, critics see lost sovereignty and potential military use. The Maldives oscillates between "China First" and "India First" policies, leveraging great power competition.
Bangladesh and Myanmar: Bangladesh balances strong Indian security ties with Chinese infrastructure funding. In Myanmar, China pragmatically engages the military junta, ethnic armed groups, and safeguards BRI investments like Kyaukphyu port, a Malacca bypass strategically comparable to Pakistan's role.
The Board of Peace: A New Variable in the Equation
A novel and potentially disruptive element – US President created Board of Peace (a non-UN mechanism) – has been added to this complex mix. Though its initial focus is on Gaza stabilization, Pakistan’s inclusion in the Board unsettles South Asia, especially triggering suspicion in India about the forum being leveraged by Pakistan to internationalise the Kashmir dispute under a new guise.
These concerns exist despite the Trump administration's explicit declaration that it is not a parallel to the UN and there are no intentions regarding Kashmir. China was one of the countries that declined to join the Board, claiming that it was an attempt to establish a parallel system that would undermine the UN-centered multilateral order.
This Board emerges amid intensifying U.S.-China competition in Greenland, focused on Arctic strategy and rare-earth minerals. The U.S. acts to counter perceived Chinese security threats in the region, while China pursues a permanent Arctic role, highlighting global tensions over critical resources and geopolitical influence.
The Wider Web
China's strategy extends beyond South Asia into larger theatres. In the Middle East, its comprehensive strategic partnership with Iran, including a 25-year cooperation agreement, provides Tehran with an economic lifeline and strengthens an anti-Western axis with Russia. Simultaneously, China maintains robust ties with Iran's rivals like the UAE, demonstrating transactional, non-ideological foreign policy. Beijing brokered the historic 2023 Saudi-Iran reconciliation.
The Pentagon and Tel Aviv now face constraints in pressuring Tehran, given last year's Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRG) response. Despite governance issues in Iran, the West cannot leverage internal protests beyond diplomatic posturing. Meanwhile, the UAE plans a dedicated Jewish neighborhood following the 2020 Abraham Accords—a questionable move given current regional dynamics.
Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement last year, with a trilateral agreement involving Turkey reportedly forthcoming. Saudi-led realignments may isolate Israel, drawing Middle Eastern partners into new security blocs, as reported by Israeli outlet Maariv.
The Trump administration reportedly threatens Middle Eastern nations including Qatar and Iraq with asset freezes and sanctions for non-alignment with U.S. interests.
Recent U.S. naval movements signal threats to Iran-aligned groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hamas. Tehran promises comprehensive retaliation to any attack. Trump's pressure appears to be consolidating the "Axis of Resistance" bloc despite internal regional protests.
In a similar pattern in Africa, BRI infrastructure links ports to resource-rich hinterlands, and Latin America, where trade deepens ties.
The emerging Beijing-Moscow-Tehran-Pyongyang alignment, termed an "axis of autocracy" by the West, is less a formal alliance than a convergence of interests among states challenging what they view as an exclusionary U.S.-led order.
Deepening this complex plot, at least five top Chinese military leaders, including Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission General Zhang Youxia, the highest-ranking military officer, were sacked and placed under investigation on January 24, 2026, for suspected serious violations of Party laws and discipline.
Zhang faces accusations of leaked nuclear weapons secrets to the U.S. and corruption, though no official confirmation exists. Whether this is substantive or propaganda remains unclear.
While China's governance framework prioritizes national stability and development through comprehensive policy coordination, this case, if true, suggests challenges to political and military cohesion or difficulties maintaining complete political control over defense institutions.
The Imperative of Multilateralism
The dragon's shadow that was cast over South Asia and the entire world is not simply a case of containment versus expansionism. It tells the story of a rising power trying to overthrow an established order and protect its interests through a combination of economic statecraft, military modernisation, and strategic partnership.
This gives smaller nations in South Asia and beyond more leeway to move around, gain access to development financing, and assert greater autonomy, but it also increases the likelihood of debt dependency and involvement in rivalry with other great powers.
The United States' response aims to maintain what it calls power balance and a rules-based system through military deterrence and alliances like the Quad. However, if a strategy is only framed through the lens of confrontation, it runs the risk of leading to conflict, particularly in relation to hotspots like Taiwan.
The global order of the 21st century is based on strategic competition and intricate interdependence. A viable option is neither direct confrontation nor unqualified accommodation. The world’s stability will depend on the ability of major powers to manage their competition within frameworks that prevent catastrophic conflict.
This necessitates robust diplomacy, clear communication channels, especially militarily, and a recognition of each other’s core interests. In the end, the most long-term path is not to form exclusive blocs or parallel systems; rather, it is to revive inclusive, effective multilateralism, in which both established and emerging powers have a stake in maintaining a common set of rules for trade, security, and diplomacy.
Have you liked the news article?