It is déjà vu for people in north India as winter precipitation — snowfall and rainfall — seem to be giving the region a miss this year as well. Last winter also, north India received scanty snowfall during the harshest winter months, which affected both tourism and local livelihoods.
As per the latest rainfall data released by India Meteorological Department (IMD) of the Indian government, the country received highly deficient rainfall — 72 per cent less than normal — in the month of January this year.
Except for the South Peninsula, where it was near normal (only 4.7 per cent less than normal), winter rainfall was highly deficient in all the other regions of the country in January 2025.
Precipitation during winter is important for rabi (winter) crops, such as wheat, and snowfall during this period replenishes glaciers and various Himalayan rivers that sustain millions of people in the Indian subcontinent.
According to IMD, the Northwest region of the country received 80.6 per cent below normal rainfall between January 1 and January 30, 2025. This region covers Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
Situation is critical in J&K and Ladakh, which received a deficient winter precipitation of minus 58 per cent in December 2024 as well. December and January are the harshest winter months in J&K, locally known as Chillai Kalan, when maximum winter precipitation is received.
It must be noted that north India receives about 18 per cent of its annual rainfall during January to March. J&K and Ladakh in particular receive about 31 per cent of their annual rainfall during these three months.
Situation in Central India is also worrisome as the region has had a deficient rainfall of minus 96.1 per cent in January this year. Meanwhile, east and northeast India also received 55.4 per cent below normal rainfall in the same period (see Rainfall Statistics — Winter 2025).
Forecast of a Dry February
According to IMD, the situation is unlikely to improve in February, which is forecasted to go dry. A press release issued by the weather agency on January 31 warns that monthly rainfall over the country as a whole during February 2025 is most likely to be below normal (less than 81 per cent of Long Period Average, LPA).
North India is likely to receive a deficient rainfall of less than 78 per cent of LPA this month. Thus, three successive winter months of deficient precipitation.
The LPA of rainfall over north India and the country as whole during February is based on data from 1971 to 2020 and stands at 65.0 millimeter (mm) and 22.7 mm, respectively.
Adverse Impact on Rabi Crops
In its press note, IMD warns that below normal rainfall along with higher temperature over plains of northwest India in winter season would have significant adverse impact on standing crops like wheat at flowering and grain filling stages. Crops like mustard and chickpea may also experience early maturity.
Further, horticultural crops like apple, and other temperate stone fruits may experience premature bud break and early flowering due to warmer temperatures, resulting in poor fruit setting and quality which may ultimately reflect in poor yield, warns IMD. The intermittent light irrigation will be required to minimize the adverse impact and sustain the crop growth, the weather agency recommends.
Changing Pattern of Western Disturbances
A weather system known as Western Disturbance brings winter precipitation to north India. Research studies indicate that the pattern of Western Disturbances is changing, which is a matter of concern both in terms of food security and water security.
A western disturbance (WD) is an extra-tropical storm that originates in the Mediterranean region. An area of reduced air pressure, this disturbance carries moisture from the Mediterranean and Caspian seas east, via the subtropical westerly jet stream. This brings rain and snow to Pakistan and northern India, which replenishes glaciers. These disturbances are therefore crucial for the region’s water security, farming and tourism.
Climate scientists warn that there is a decreasing trend in winter snow or winter precipitation over the northern region of the country, as reported in Dialogue Earth. This is related to the less-frequent passage of western disturbances. Climate models suggest a further decrease of about 10-15 per cent in the frequency of WDs by 2050 or so.
A 2019 WD study published by the American Meteorological Society concluded that: “The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean.”
A more recent study in 2023 assessed 39 WD seasons between 1980 and 2019, and reported a declining trend in the frequency of these storms.
Nidhi Jamwal is a Mumbai-based journalist who reports on environment, climate, and rural issues.
(An interview of Dr Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, an expert on climate change and environment, explaining in this interview recorded last year for The Third Pole when we had a snowless winter in chillai kalan, the harshest winter period in J&K. This year also extremely low winter precipitation across all the regions of the country.) This was added with the news article.
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