The air in Kashmir is thick with anticipation — but it is an anticipation carefully curated and stage-managed. Whispers of statehood restoration, the rise of a new political alliance, and fleeting moments of international attention feel less like organic developments and more like chess pieces moved with precision, with New Delhi’s hand firmly guiding the board.
The restoration of statehood is floated as a possible concession. Yet in truth, the ruling BJP is engineering a fractured political landscape designed not to empower Kashmiris, but to preserve its own grip on power. What is offered to the people of Kashmir is not genuine internal self-determination — but the illusion of choice.
The formation of the so-called People’s Alliance for Change (PAC), led by Sajad Lone, Chairman of J&K Peoples' Conference (JKPC), is no grassroots uprising. It is a calculated manoeuvre. The BJP understands this, even if some prefer to portray it otherwise.
With elements linked to the banned Jamaat-e-Islami incorporated into its ranks, the PAC is less about articulating a unified Kashmiri vision and more about creating an alternative to the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) — alternatives that can be managed, divided, and played off against each other.
The narrative being subtly pushed is clear: the NC and PDP have failed. The NC, despite its 2024 electoral success, is branded as complacent, unwilling to challenge New Delhi with conviction. The PDP, forever haunted by its past alliance with the BJP, is seen as irreparably tainted. In this space of deliberately fostered disillusionment, the PAC emerges as a ‘fresh’ alternative — but one that ultimately serves the BJP’s long-term plan.
Let us be frank. The BJP does not seek a strong, unified opposition in Kashmir. It prefers a scattering of smaller parties, each chasing influence, each vulnerable to pressure and compromise. This fragmentation allows New Delhi to avoid clear mandates, to pick and choose allies, and maintain its grip through proxy governance and tactical coalitions. The benefits for the BJP are obvious: divided mandates, increased bargaining power, weakened traditional power centres, and a carefully maintained fiction of ‘normalcy’ masking deep control.
The talk of restoring statehood during the monsoon session of Parliament is no act of generosity. It is a well-timed distraction, a carrot to divert attention from the stick — the continued erosion of autonomy and tightening control. Should statehood be restored, it will likely come with caveats, ensuring Delhi’s oversight and influence remain intact. This is not about the restoration of rights; it is about the preservation of control.
The PAC’s chances of success, despite pockets of support in North and South Kashmir, are slim. Lone’s JKPC commands some loyalty, but the JDF’s links to a banned organisation alienate mainstream voters. The challenge is not merely mobilising Jamaat sympathisers — it is overcoming the deep distrust that such associations provoke.
As for the PDP, its path back to relevance is steeper still. The stain of its alliance with the BJP runs deep, and the party cannot hope to recover with mere words of contrition. It requires a bold, visionary platform that speaks to Kashmiri aspirations — a platform that convincingly breaks with its compromising past.
The international dimension adds another layer. The recent US offer of mediation, following a brief flare-up on the border with Pakistan, is unlikely to shift Delhi’s approach. Rather, it offers an opportunity for New Delhi to project openness abroad, even as it pursues its hard-line strategy at home.
Kashmir stands at a critical crossroads. The months ahead will decide whether the region moves towards regaining statehood or genuine representation, or settles into a new normal of controlled politics and managed dissent. The real question is also not if statehood will be restored — but under what conditions, and at what cost.
New Delhi must recognise that lasting peace and stability in Kashmir cannot be secured through fragmentation and manipulation. Only genuine political engagement, a sincere commitment to addressing grievances, and the restoration of rights can break the cycle of distrust and resentment.
Without this, today’s calculated calm risks giving way to tomorrow’s storm. The chessboard may be set, but the game is far from over. And the people of Kashmir deserve far more than to be pawns upon it.
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