For more than a week, Pakistan-Administered Kashmir was rocked by protests that left four residents dead. The leaders of the civil rights movement have now called off the protests after the government conceded their demands for a reduction in the prices of wheat flour and electricity and a review of certain privileges.
This region, also known as Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK), is struggling with rising costs amid Pakistan’s 17 percent inflation.
The state of Jammu and Kashmir has been a point of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947, with the Line Of Control (LOC) dividing the region into areas administered by Pakistan and India.
Although these regions have little in common in terms of race and language, they are bound together by the borders drawn in the Amritsar Agreement of 1846. Even though they are indifferent to each other’s affairs, their political future is inextricably linked.
The areas of Neelum and Muzaffarabad in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir border the districts of Kupwara and Baramulla in the Kashmir Valley. However, most of the territory, including Bagh, Palindri, Rawalakot, Kotli, Mirpur and Bhimbar, lies on the other side of the Jammu division.
The demands that led to the unrest could have been resolved with understanding. Reduction in electricity bills and wheat flour prices, similar to subsidies in nearby Gilgit-Baltistan, were reasonable demands
During the negotiations from November to December 2023, the local government action committee submitted a 10-point list that included the removal of excessive government incentives and other socio-economic reforms.
An agreement could not be reached as trust in the government was deemed insufficient. Since the 2021 general elections, the region has seen three prime ministers in four years.
After the then Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s party won a majority, Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi was appointed prime minister, but he was ousted and replaced by businessman Tanveer Ilyas.
A year later, he was ousted and Sardar Anwar ul Haq, who also belonged to Imran Khan’s party, took office with the support of Pakistan’s main political parties opposed to Khan.
Journalist and analyst Arif Bahar argues that viewing Pakistan-Administered Kashmir solely in terms of security prism has led to compromised leadership and simmering problems.
He emphasises that the people feel a strong sense of deprivation and that their resources are not benefiting the common people. The strategy of remote-controlled leadership has failed, as the Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) movement proves.
Despite reform efforts, including the abolition of secret funds, the awarding of government contracts via electronic tenders and the reduction of government spending by more than 90 %, these measures have not been widely accepted.
The government’s austerity measures, such as biometric attendance checks for employees and a crackdown on tax evasion, have isolated the prime minister and made him unpopular with the region’s 127,000 civil servants.
A parallel can be drawn with the rigged 1987 elections in Jammu and Kashmir when Dr Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference-Congress alliance came to power. Months later, it hiked electricity tariffs, leading to protests and violence. Governments without public credibility cannot afford to implement reforms such as cutting subsidies or increasing power tariffs.
Instead, they need to offer concessions to dampen public discontent, as Bakshi Ghulam Muhammad did in 1953 after the ouster of Sheikh Abdullah’s government. By offering cheap rice and other concessions to Kashmiris, he successfully diverted their attention from the demand for freedom and the imprisonment of Sheikh Abdullah for more than a decade.
Contrasts across LoC
Unlike the homogeneous population on the Indian side, Pakistan-Administered Kashmir has a diverse population but is trapped in the Baradari system of Syeds, Mughals, Gujjars, Sudans, Rajputs and Chauhans. They also vote according to their Baradari (clan) system.
However, due to centuries of proximity to Punjab and other South Asian mainland regions, the region has a strong political consciousness and urge to preserve its identity.
Kashmiri is the predominant language in the Indian part of Jammu and Kashmir, where it is spoken by 52.46% of the population. In the 10 districts of Kashmir Valley, it is spoken by over 86% of the population.
In contrast, only 5% of people in Pakistan-Administered Kashmir speak Kashmiri, while the majority speak Pahari, a language similar to Potohari and Hindko.
There is a perception in India that the Pakistani-Administered Kashmir region is backwards compared to the Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir. However, they forget to mention that the Kashmir Valley has a rich history of 5,000 years and Srinagar like Varanasi and Damascus is among the oldest cities in the world.
The literacy rate in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir is 77.46 percent, the school enrolment rate is 90 and the graduation rate is 12 percent in urban areas and 8.46 percent in rural areas.
In Pakistan-administered Kashmir, on the other hand, the literacy rate is 76.46% and the school enrolment rate is 98%, but only 2.46% of the population has a university degree.
This discrepancy is possibly due to the diaspora in the region: one million inhabitants live in European countries, mainly in the United Kingdom, another million in various parts of Pakistan and 300,000 in the Gulf region.
Decades ago, the region had better infrastructure than its counterpart across the LOC, with well-developed roads. If you sat on the banks of the Kishanganga or the Neelam on the Indian side, you could see colourful Pakistani trucks driving on paved roads. Since then, however, the region seems to have entered a difficult phase.
Protecting the glaciers
Pakistan-Administered Kashmir, with its small administrative area of 13,297 square kilometres, could have served as a laboratory for empowering the people and implementing political and economic reforms. A new system could be introduced by addressing the weaknesses of the existing parliamentary system of democracy.
In any case, it is important to consider the economic demands of those who protect vital resources such as glaciers and forests that ensure the food security of the entire region.
According to UN water expert Anukka Lipponen, there is a global norm that provides energy security for people living in the upper catchment area of rivers. In return, they are expected to protect glaciers and forests to provide abundant water for agriculture and food security for the population living downstream.
Farmers in the lower basin who benefit from the Indus and its tributaries Jhelum and Chenab must share in the responsibility of helping those who are destined to conserve these resources by meeting their economic needs.
From time to time, population redistribution in the mountains may also be required to prevent the premature melting of glaciers due to human activities.
At the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Dubai last year, the Loss and Damage Fund was approved to help mountain communities conserve their resources and the environment.
It is , therefore, an ideal time for the governments of India and Pakistan to commission a scientific and legal study to utilise this fund for the economic needs and energy security of the people in the region.
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