GILGIT: The remote region of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir, Gilgit-Baltistan, heads to the polls on June 7 to choose a new assembly.
Many residents say they are also casting judgment on a political system that has left the strategically important region in constitutional uncertainty for decades.
More than 960,000 voters are expected to elect 24 members of the Gilgit-Baltistan Assembly, with another nine seats reserved for women and technocrats.
The election, postponed from January because of severe winter conditions, has evolved into a closely contested three-way battle among the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), and candidates aligned with the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI).
Yet as campaigning enters its final phase, analysts say the outcome may be determined less by party manifestos than by local personalities, sectarian balances, and post-election alliances.
"Gilgit-Baltistan has never voted exactly like the rest of Pakistan," said Abdul Jabbar Nasir, a political observer based in Gilgit.
"Party labels matter, but local influence, family networks, and a candidate's ability to deliver development projects often matter even more."
That reality is reflected in the numbers. Of more than 400 candidates contesting the election, around two-thirds are running as independents, underlining the enduring importance of local political networks. Many independents are expected to join larger parties after the election, potentially determining who forms the next government.
Historically, voters in Gilgit-Baltistan have tended to support the party ruling in Islamabad. PPP won the first election held under the 2009 self-governance framework. PML-N followed in 2015, while PTI swept the region in 2020 with a two-thirds majority.
Political analyst Asad Chaudhry believes that the pattern may not be as predictable this time.
"The traditional advantage enjoyed by the federal ruling party is weaker than before," he said in a recent election assessment. "Voters are increasingly looking at local performance, governance, and delivery rather than simply aligning with Islamabad."
PPP appears to have entered the campaign with a relatively stronger organizational network, particularly in Baltistan. Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has campaigned extensively in the region, highlighting the party's role in introducing the 2009 governance reforms that created the present assembly structure.
PML-N, meanwhile, is banking on its development record and its position within the federal coalition government. Former chief minister Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman remains one of the most influential political figures in the region and is seeking a return to power.
PTI, despite organizational challenges and defections following the fall of its previous government, retains considerable support among younger voters and those disillusioned with traditional parties. Many of its supporters are contesting as independents.
Most analysts expect no party to secure a clear majority in the 33-member assembly, making coalition-building inevitable.
According to a recent assessment by the Institute of Chinese and South Asian Studies, the fragmented political landscape and the growing influence of independents make another coalition government the most likely outcome.
Beyond electoral arithmetic, however, the campaign has been dominated by a more fundamental issue: Gilgit-Baltistan's unresolved constitutional status.
Despite being administered by Pakistan since 1947, the region remains outside Pakistan's constitutional framework and lacks representation in the National Assembly and Senate. Islamabad has long argued that any permanent constitutional arrangement must be consistent with its position on the broader Jammu and Kashmir dispute.
For many voters, constitutional rights have become as important as roads, schools, and electricity.
"Every election brings promises of provincial status, parliamentary representation, and greater autonomy," said a senior lawyer in Gilgit who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue. "People are now asking when these promises will actually translate into legislation."
Major political parties
Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP)
PPP remains one of the strongest organized parties in the region.
Its principal strengths include:
Historical credit for introducing the 2009 self-governance framework.
Strong presence in Baltistan.
Extensive local networks.
Support among segments of the Shia population.
PPP's campaign focuses on:
Greater constitutional rights.
Resource ownership.
Fiscal autonomy.
Social welfare.
Employment generation.
Tourism development.
Party chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has actively campaigned in the region.
Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)
PML-N seeks to capitalize on its participation in the federal government.
Its campaign emphasizes:
Infrastructure development.
Roads and connectivity.
CPEC-linked investments.
Digital connectivity.
Expansion of educational institutions.
Local government reforms.
Former chief minister Hafiz Hafeezur Rehman remains the party's most influential figure in the region.
PTI and PTI-aligned independents
PTI achieved a landslide victory in 2020, securing a two-thirds majority.
Although PTI faces organizational and legal constraints, many candidates retain strong local support and continue campaigning through independent platforms or aligned groups.
PTI's themes include:
Anti-corruption.
Accountability.
Welfare measures.
Opposition to traditional political elites.
Greater local control over resources.
PTI remains particularly competitive in several Baltistan constituencies.
Economic concerns are equally pressing. Youth unemployment, inflation, power shortages, and limited industrial opportunities dominate public discussions across the region.
Hydro-power royalties have become a particularly contentious issue. Local activists argue that Gilgit-Baltistan contributes substantially to Pakistan's water and energy resources but receives little financial benefit in return.
Climate change has also emerged as a major electoral issue for the first time. Repeated glacial lake outburst floods, landslides, and extreme weather events have highlighted the vulnerability of one of the world's largest mountain ecosystems.
The election is taking place amid wider regional anxieties as well. Recent unrest in parts of Gilgit-Baltistan during the period of heightened tensions surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict exposed underlying grievances related to governance, economic insecurity, and sectarian sensitivities.
Observers say the disturbances demonstrated how external geopolitical developments can quickly resonate in a region that sits at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia, and China.
Gilgit-Baltistan's strategic significance has only increased in recent years because of its location along the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Yet many residents complain that the benefits of major infrastructure projects have not adequately reached local communities.
"The central question before voters is whether this election can produce a government capable of negotiating a better deal for the region," said a former bureaucrat in Skardu. "People want constitutional rights, but they also want jobs, electricity, and a share in the region's resources."
As campaigning draws to a close, few analysts are willing to predict a clear winner. What appears increasingly certain is that no single party is likely to dominate the assembly.
Instead, the June 7 vote may once again produce a familiar outcome: a fragmented mandate, intense post-election bargaining, and renewed debate over the future of a region that remains politically unsettled despite nearly eight decades of Pakistani administration.
This version reads more like a front-page Kashmir Times political analysis, with attributed voices, quotes from analysts, a stronger news lead, and less of a policy-brief tone.
Religious parties
Religious parties remain influential despite rarely winning large numbers of seats.
Majlis Wahdat-e-Muslimeen (MWM)
A Shia political party with influence in Shia-majority districts.
It often acts as a coalition partner and can become a kingmaker in closely divided assemblies.
Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F)
Led nationally by Maulana Fazlur Rehman.
Its influence is concentrated in Sunni-majority districts such as Diamer.
Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)
Traditionally strong among educated urban voters and students.
Campaign priorities include governance reforms, anti-corruption measures and social welfare.
Islami Tehreek Pakistan (ITP)
A smaller Shia religious party that retains pockets of support in certain constituencies.
Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP)
Its electoral footprint remains limited, though it has fielded candidates.
Regional and nationalist parties
Balawaristan National Front (BNF)
The principal nationalist formation advocating greater autonomy and recognition of a distinct Gilgit-Baltistan identity.
Its veteran leader, Nawaz Khan Naji, remains one of the most recognizable regional political figures.
Although unlikely to form a government, nationalist parties influence debates on:
Constitutional status.
Resource ownership.
Federal intervention.
Local rights.
Since the creation of the self-governance framework in 2009, power has alternated between Pakistan's major parties.
Districts of Gilgit-Baltistan: Geography and political significance
Gilgit District
The administrative headquarters of Gilgit-Baltistan and its political nerve centre. Located along the Karakoram Highway, it serves as the gateway to China through the Khunjerab Pass. Politics is highly competitive among PPP, PML-N, and PTI, with sectarian and clan affiliations often influencing outcomes.
Skardu District
Headquarters of the Baltistan Division and the region's second-largest urban centre. Bordering Ladakh and Kargil across the Line of Control, Skardu is the heartland of Baltistan's Shia population. PPP has traditionally been strong here, though PTI made significant gains in 2020.
Ghanche District
Gilgit-Baltistan's easternmost district, bordering Ladakh and including the strategically important area opposite India's Siachen Glacier. The population is predominantly Shia and Nurbakhshi. PPP and local religious leaders often wield considerable influence.
Kharmang District
Carved out of the Skardu district and situated along the Line of Control opposite Kargil. It is one of the most sensitive border districts. Politics revolves around local notables, with PPP and independent candidates traditionally performing well.
Shigar District
Home to K2 and some of the world's highest peaks. The district borders China's Xinjiang region through the Karakoram range. Electoral politics is strongly influenced by local families and religious networks.
Hunza District
Bordering China's Xinjiang region, Hunza is one of Pakistan's most literate districts and a major tourism destination. The population is largely Ismaili. Voters are generally more issue-oriented and less driven by traditional patronage politics. Independent and reform-minded candidates often do well.
Nagar District
Located across the Hunza River from Hunza, Nagar has a mixed Shia and Ismaili population. Elections are usually closely contested among major parties, with local clan loyalties playing an important role.
Ghizer District
Bordering Afghanistan's Wakhan Corridor and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's Chitral region. It has a substantial Ismaili population and comparatively high literacy rates. PPP has historically enjoyed influence here, though PTI made inroads in recent elections.
Astore District
Situated south of Gilgit and bordering Jammu and Kashmir. Known for the Deosai Plains and mountain valleys. The district is politically competitive and often acts as a swing region between PPP, PML-N, and PTI.
Diamer District
The only Sunni-majority district in Gilgit-Baltistan and home to the Diamer-Bhasha Dam project. Bordering Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, it is politically distinct from the Shia-majority districts of Baltistan and central GB. JUI-F, PML-N, and local tribal leaders are influential.
Darel District
Created in 2019 from the Diamer district. Predominantly Sunni and tribal in character, bordering Kohistan. Religious parties and influential local families play a significant role in politics.
Tangir District
Also carved out of Diamer in 2019. Remote and mountainous, with strong tribal traditions and a predominantly Sunni population. Elections are usually personality-driven rather than party-driven.
Roundu District
The newest district is located between Gilgit and Skardu along the Indus River. Historically part of the Skardu district, it serves as a strategic link between Baltistan and Gilgit. Local leadership and tribal affiliations remain more important than party labels.
Political map at a glance
PPP strongest: Skardu, Ghanche, Kharmang, parts of Ghizer.
PML-N strongest: Gilgit city, Diamer, and some urban constituencies.
PTI strongest: Baltistan districts, Hunza, Nagar, parts of Gilgit.
JUI-F influence: Diamer, Darel, and Tangir.
MWM influence: Skardu, Ghanche, and Shia-majority constituencies.
Ismaili influence: Hunza and Ghizer.
Kingmakers: Independents remain decisive across almost every district.
The region is divided into three political zones: Gilgit Division, Baltistan Division, and Diamer Division, explaining that Baltistan has traditionally leaned toward the PPP, Diamer toward conservative and religious parties, while Gilgit Division often determines the overall balance of power.
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