RAWALAKOT: After nearly seven weeks of shutdowns, protests and political uncertainty, Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir appears to be entering a new, and perhaps more decisive, phase of its prolonged crisis.
Developments over the past two days suggest that while the confrontation between the government and the banned Jammu Kashmir Joint Awami Action Committee (JAAC) is far from over, both sides may now be searching for a political exit rather than a prolonged standoff.
Negotiators representing the government and JAAC have reported significant progress in their discussions.
At the same time, mobile internet services have begun returning to parts of Mirpur after a 47-day suspension, mainstream political parties have intensified campaigning ahead of the phased Legislative Assembly elections beginning on July 27, and public institutions have resumed activities that had remained largely suspended during weeks of unrest.
Yet these signs of normalisation have been accompanied by continuing protests, a territory-wide strike by lawyers, fresh demands for postponing elections and lingering uncertainty over several politically sensitive issues.
The convergence of these developments is unlikely to be coincidental. Together, they suggest that the administration has begun shifting its strategy from one centred primarily on security measures to one combining negotiations, selective concessions and electoral politics. Whether this transition succeeds, however, depends on whether the remaining disputes can be resolved before polling begins.
According to JAAC leader Umar Nazir Kashmiri, negotiations have made tangible progress during the past few days. He acknowledged that differences on several issues have narrowed and that consensus has been reached on multiple points.
However, he cautioned that nothing should be regarded as final until a written agreement is signed by both sides. He also warned that if the government reneges on any commitments or attempts to deceive the committee during the negotiations, JAAC would immediately revive its proposed long march.
Sources familiar with the negotiations indicate that substantial progress has reportedly been achieved on issues concerning compensation for those killed or injured during the protests, the release of detainees, cases relating to missing persons, withdrawal of certain criminal cases and First Information Reports (FIRs), and other humanitarian concerns.
Significance of Negotiations
The principal disagreements now revolve around two politically sensitive issues: lifting the government's ban on JAAC and determining legal responsibility in murder cases arising from the unrest. Those questions have delayed the signing of a formal agreement, although negotiators reportedly remain hopeful that clarity may emerge within the next two days.
The significance of these negotiations lies not merely in the possibility of an agreement but in what they reveal about the changing political calculations of both sides. Since early June, the government's approach relied heavily on arrests, internet restrictions and security deployments following the ban on JAAC after an assassination attempt on Umar Nazir Kashmiri. The protest movement, meanwhile, responded with strikes, demonstrations and calls for a long march on Muzaffarabad. Neither side, however, appears to have achieved a decisive advantage.
For the administration, prolonged restrictions have imposed economic and political costs, particularly as legislative elections approach. For JAAC, sustaining a mass mobilisation indefinitely while facing arrests and legal action has become increasingly difficult. The negotiations therefore reflect a growing recognition that continued confrontation carries risks for both parties.
Perhaps the clearest indication of this changing approach is the partial restoration of internet services.
Nearly seven weeks after mobile data services were suspended across the territory, connectivity has begun returning in Mirpur and surrounding areas. Authorities have indicated that broadband and Wi-Fi services will also be restored after technical and billing procedures are completed. The internet shutdown, imposed on June 5 after violence surrounding JAAC protests, had disrupted education, businesses, banking services, communications and political campaigning throughout the region.
While officials have presented the restoration as a gradual administrative process linked to improving security conditions, its timing carries obvious political significance. The first phase of elections is only days away, making continued communication restrictions increasingly difficult to justify.
Political parties require access to voters, election authorities depend on communication networks, and candidates need digital platforms to campaign. Restoring internet services therefore serves not only practical purposes but also helps strengthen the credibility of the electoral process.
Pakistan Peoples’ Party Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari quickly welcomed the move, thanking both the Azad Kashmir government and the Election Commission while expressing hope that internet services would soon be restored in Muzaffarabad and other districts as well. His intervention reflected a broader consensus among mainstream political parties that communications must return before polling begins.
Election Campaign
The election campaign itself has accelerated markedly during the past week.
The Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) organised a major rally in Muzaffarabad addressed by party president Nawaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Maryam Nawaz. Elsewhere, former prime ministers Sardar Atiq Ahmad Khan and Sardar Tanveer Ilyas met to discuss the evolving political situation. While supporting the Election Commission's decision to hold polling in three phases, they proposed that results from all phases should be announced simultaneously rather than separately, arguing that this would strengthen public confidence and reduce opportunities for controversy during the staggered election schedule.
Yet beneath this apparent return to electoral politics, the protest movement remains very much alive.
JAAC continues to insist that elections should be postponed until prevailing political conditions improve. Umar Nazir Kashmiri has appealed to the Chief Election Commissioner to defer polling, arguing that meaningful participation is impossible while the organisation remains banned and many activists continue to face legal proceedings.
Reports concerning the detention and later release of Jammu Kashmir National Students Federation Deputy Secretary General Mujeeb Akbar, along with concerns expressed by activists over the reported disappearance of Dr Abdul Mannan from Rawalpindi, have reinforced claims that the political environment remains constrained.
Adding another dimension to the evolving crisis, lawyers across Pakistan-administered Kashmir observed a strike protesting the arrest of JAAC activists and members of the legal fraternity. Although legal associations have occasionally intervened in political controversies in the region, their coordinated action indicates that concerns overdue process and civil liberties are no longer confined to the protest movement itself. The involvement of lawyers also broadens the social composition of dissent, potentially giving it greater institutional legitimacy.
Meanwhile, authorities have continued efforts to project an image of normalcy. In Muzaffarabad, the military-supported "Kashmiri Baithak" was formally inaugurated, with the General Officer Commanding Murree attending the opening ceremony. Students from various educational institutions were subsequently invited to visit the centre, where officials said the objective was to familiarise younger generations with Kashmir's history, culture, traditions and freedom movement. Supporters describe the initiative as an educational project aimed at strengthening cultural awareness, while critics question whether its inauguration amid continuing political unrest carries a broader political message.
Taken together, the developments of the past two days suggest that Pakistan-administered Kashmir may be moving away from an exclusively security-driven phase of the crisis towards one where negotiations, elections and political competition increasingly overlap. That transition, however, remains incomplete.
The most contentious questions, including the legal status of JAAC, accountability for violence during the protests and the future of the movement itself, remain unresolved. Whether the coming days produce a political settlement or another cycle of confrontation will depend less on the conduct of the elections than on whether the negotiations can bridge those final and most difficult divides.
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