For three weeks now, whispers of a leadership change have filled the corridors of Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir. The Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) has claimed it has secured the numbers for an in-house transition.
The discussions reportedly involved PPP Chairman Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, and party leader Faryal Talpur, unfolding across Karachi and Islamabad.
On October 31, Bilawal Bhutto announced in Islamabad that his party was ready to form a new government in Muzaffarabad, promising to reveal the new prime minister’s name later. PPP’s local chief, Chaudhary Yasin, went so far as to suggest that Japan’s success lies in having changed 11 prime ministers in a short period—hinting that turnover can mean progress.
But the very next day, Bilawal flew back to Karachi. By November 3, his tone had shifted: He tweeted that the federal government had reached out to PPP for support on the 27th Constitutional Amendment in Pakistan’s Parliament. Suddenly, talk of an in-house change in Kashmir cooled. Political observers began to suggest that the ruling Pakistan Muslim League–Nawaz (PML-N) had made its cooperation conditional on the PPP’s support for the amendment.
Earlier, PML-N had signaled willingness to back PPP in replacing the current government, but with a caveat—they would not join the new cabinet. Instead, they would sit in the assembly as the opposition after the reshuffle.
The speculation around a leadership change began soon after the October protests by the Awami Action Committee and a subsequent agreement with Islamabad. Several non-resident assembly members, instead of resigning from their ministries, rebelled against Prime Minister Chaudhary Anwarul Haq and aligned with the PPP.
Ironically, both PPP and PML-N were part of Anwarul Haq’s government. When he was elected, he had the backing of the PPP, PML-N, and Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). Soon after, PPP and PML-N joined the cabinet, while PTI moved to the opposition benches. Just last month, PPP and PML-N withdrew their support, meaning they are now plotting a no-confidence motion against the very government they helped install—an echo of their past maneuvers.
When talk of Pakistan’s 27th Amendment began, the heat in Muzaffarabad cooled. PML-N shifted to demanding Anwarul Haq’s resignation instead. Despite losing major allies, the prime minister has carried on with a handful of ministers.
History of Musical Chairs
Political instability is nothing new in Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Only once has a prime minister resigned voluntarily before completing the assembly’s term, Mumtaz Hussain Rathore in 1991. Fearing a no-confidence motion, he dissolved the assembly himself, paving the way for fresh elections that brought Sardar Abdul Qayyum to power.
From 2006 to 2011, one assembly saw four different prime ministers, all toppled through internal revolts. Sardar Atiq Khan was replaced by Sardar Yaqub Khan in 2009, who in turn was replaced by Raja Farooq Haider within nine months. In 2010, Atiq returned to power after another successful no-confidence vote.
A similar cycle is now repeating. Since the 2021 elections, the region has already had three prime ministers—all elected on PTI tickets. Sardar Abdul Qayyum Niazi was forced to resign in April 2022, succeeded by Sardar Tanveer Ilyas. A year later, Ilyas was disqualified by the Supreme Court for contempt. The assembly then elevated Speaker Chaudhary Anwarul Haq to the top seat.
If the current no-confidence motion succeeds, it will be the second time in history that one assembly sees four prime ministers in a single term.
If the 27th Amendment is passed in Pakistan and a no-confidence vote follows in Muzaffarabad, the sequence will mirror what happened in Islamabad in April 2022—when PPP and PML-N joined hands to unseat Imran Khan. That coalition soon faltered under economic and political strain, paying a heavy price in the next elections.
Should a similar reshuffle occur now in Muzaffarabad, the PPP and PML-N might again find that the price of political opportunism is steep. With general elections due in July 2026, any upheaval today will likely define the region’s political landscape for years to come.
For now, the game of numbers continues, familiar faces plotting familiar moves—while the people of Pakistan-administered Kashmir wait, yet again, for a government that lasts long enough to govern.
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