On September 9, 2025, the Middle East's geopolitical landscape underwent a seismic shift when Israeli fighter jets launched a deadly attack on a residential compound in Doha's affluent Leqtaifiya district. The target: Hamas's political leadership gathered to discuss a U.S.-brokered ceasefire proposal for Gaza. The aftermath: six dead, including a Qatari security official, and a fundamental rewriting of the region's security calculus.
What made this operation unprecedented wasn't merely its audacity. Israel had previously struck targets in Syria, Lebanon, Yemen [as usual] and Iran, but its location. A Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member that hosts the largest U.S. military base in the region, Qatar has been under America's protective umbrella.
The attack represents what security experts call a "threshold moment" that exposes hidden realities and accelerates existing trends toward their logical conclusions.
Despite Qatar's substantial investments in relationships with Western powers, including hosting 10,000 U.S. troops at Al Udeid Air Base, serving as a key mediator between Washington and its adversaries, and signing $1.2 trillion in economic agreements with the U.S. just months earlier, a military operation by a U.S. ally on its soil happened.
This incident reveals the conditional nature of security guarantees in an increasingly multipolar world where traditional alliances are being tested and rewritten.
Qatar's Diplomatic Tightrope Walk
Qatar's foreign policy strategy has long been characterised by what regional analysts’ term "omnidirectional diplomacy." Unlike its Gulf neighbours who traditionally aligned more explicitly with Western powers or regional blocs, Qatar cultivated a unique role as a mediator capable of speaking to all parties in regional conflicts.
This approach saw them host the Taliban's political office (at Washington's request), maintain channels with Iran while hosting U.S. forces, and serve as the primary intermediary between Israel and Hamas since 2012. This positioning was both a survival strategy for a small nation in a dangerous neighborhood and an ambitious bid for global relevance beyond what its natural gas wealth provides.
Qatar's relationship with Hamas deserves particular examination, as it formed the pretext for Israel's operation. Contrary to popular perception, Israel itself had requested Qatar to host Hamas leaders in 2012 to facilitate indirect communications. The monthly financial transfers to Gaza, approximately $30 million in 2023, occurred with explicit approval from both Israeli and American officials, who viewed them as humanitarian assistance that maintained stability in the region.
This context is crucial for understanding Qatar's outrage at being targeted for hosting a group it was essentially deputized to manage.
The Attack and Immediate Aftermath
The strike, codenamed "Operation Atzeret HaDin" (Day of Judgment used 12 advanced jets firing missiles from the Red Sea that flew over Saudi airspace to strike a Hamas compound in Doha, killing six people, including one Qatari official and five Hamas members. Despite the operation's technological sophistication, it failed strategically by missing its primary targets - senior Hamas leaders including chief negotiator Khalil al-Hayya survived.
The Trump administration publicly criticised Israel's operation as an operation that "does not advance Israel or America's goals," while President Trump himself declared he was "not thrilled about the whole situation". However, conflicting accounts emerged about whether the U.S. provided advance warning to Qatar, with each side telling different stories.
Israeli media reported that Washington had given a "green light" and warned Qatar in advance, though Qatar denied receiving any warning. The incident severely damaged American credibility as a security partner and mediator, particularly undermining ongoing U.S. brokered ceasefire negotiations.
As one European diplomat noted anonymously: "When you cannot predict or control your closest ally's actions, your other partnerships inevitably suffer."
Unprecedented Gulf Unity
In a remarkable demonstration of regional solidarity, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed flew to Doha with a large delegation less than 24 hours after the attack. This was a significant gesture given that the UAE and Saudi Arabia had led a diplomatic and economic boycott of Qatar from 2017 to 2021.
This visit was followed by similar expressions of support from across the GCC, including Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. The UAE further summoned the Israeli ambassador to denounce what it called Israel's "blatant and cowardly" attack.
In a more recent demonstration of unity, a meeting of Arab and Islamic States convened in Qatar on September 15 following Israel's airstrike on Hamas leaders in Doha. The group unanimously passed a resolution condemning Israel's "hostile acts including genocide, ethnic cleansing, and starvation," which they say threatens peace prospects.
This display of unity suggests that violations of sovereignty are perceived as collective threats that transcend previous political divisions. As Bader Al-Saif of Kuwait University noted, "We need to take a stand now because if we do not, it will be other Gulf capitals next".
Middle Eastern nations universally condemned the Israeli strike as "brutal aggression" and "state terrorism," with Qatar forming a legal team for international action. The UAE's diplomatic response marks the strongest reaction from an Abraham Accords signatory, while Saudi Arabia's condemnation suggests normalization talks are indefinitely frozen.
The attack potentially delivered a fatal blow to the normalisation agreements between Israel and Arab states known as the Abraham Accords. Even before the strike, the UAE had warned that reported Israeli plans to annex parts of the West Bank would be a "red line" that would "betray the very spirit of the Abraham Accords".
Israel's subsequent approval of the controversial E1 settlement (which slices the West Bank in two) and Netanyahu's declaration that "there will be no Palestinian state" further eroded the foundation of these agreements.
International Law and Diplomatic Fallout
The international response to the strike was overwhelmingly negative, spanning traditional allies and adversaries alike. The UN Security Council issued a unanimous statement, including U.S. support, that underscored "the importance of de-escalation and expressed their solidarity with Qatar". This marked a significant departure from Washington's traditional protection of Israel in international forums. Global leaders from Europe, the Middle East, and Asia-Pacific universally condemned the Israeli strike as "unacceptable" and a violation of international norms that undermines diplomatic efforts.
Qatar's Prime Minister announced that the country had "formed a legal team" to review the incident through international legal channels. This approach reflects a growing trend of middle powers utilising international law and institutions to constrain more powerful states when traditional diplomatic measures prove insufficient. This legal strategy may prove more effective than diplomatic protests alone, as it leverages universal principles rather than bilateral relationships.
The Human Dimension
The strike targeted Hamas officials while they were reportedly discussing the latest U.S. ceasefire proposal for Gaza, fundamentally undermining diplomatic processes that were underway. This pattern is not isolated. A similar Israeli attack took place on Iran in June 2024 as well as the recent attack against Iran's claimed nuclear installations at a time when Washington was negotiating with Tehran.
The strike creates a dilemma for mediators worldwide. As noted by H A Hellyer of the Royal United Services Institute, "This is the kind of risk not many countries in the region will be willing to stomach in return for a mediating role". Qatar has hosted numerous sensitive negotiations, including talks with the Taliban, Russia-Ukraine prisoner swaps, and U.S-Iran discussions.
If mediators cannot provide assurances of safety for negotiating parties, the entire ecosystem of international conflict resolution suffers, potentially leaving more conflicts to be resolved through violence rather than diplomacy.
South Asian Perspectives and Regional Dynamics
The attack reverberated beyond the Middle East, influencing dynamics in South Asia and other regions. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called the shelling in Doha "unlawful and heinous," describing it as a blatant violation of Qatar's sovereignty and territorial integrity. He affirmed that Pakistan "stands firmly with Qatar, as well as with the Palestinian people, against Israeli aggression".
This statement takes on added significance given Pakistan's complex relationship with both the Gulf states and Israel. Unlike some Arab states that have normalised relations with Israel, Pakistan maintains its traditional position of non-recognition, making its condemnation particularly pointed. The incident also occurred against the backdrop of ongoing tensions between Pakistan and India, with both countries seeking to strengthen relationships with Gulf states and the United States.
India's response was more measured, with the Ministry of External Affairs saying the government was "deeply concerned" by news of the strike but stopped short of condemning it. This cautious approach reflects India's balancing act between its historical support for Palestine, growing ties with Israel (including significant defense cooperation), and strategic relationships with Gulf states that are crucial for energy security and diaspora concerns.
Other South Asian States like Maldives, Bangladesh and Afghanistan also reacted, demonstrating how Middle Eastern events increasingly reverberate across Asia.
Energy, Investments, and Financial Realignments
Qatar's position as the world's third-largest natural gas producer adds an energy dimension to the conflict. The country has invested significantly in U.S. energy infrastructure, including a $18 billion commitment to ExxonMobil's Golden Pass LNG Terminal and Chevron Phillips Chemical's Golden Triangle Polymers Plant in Texas. These investments create mutual interdependence, as the U.S. benefits from Qatari capital and energy expertise, while Qatar gains economic diversification and political influence.
The attack raises questions about whether energy relationships might be leveraged in political disputes. While outright embargoes remain unlikely due to mutual economic interests, subtler forms of energy diplomacy, including investment timing, contract terms, partnership selections, could reflect changing political calculations in Doha.
Gulf states collectively control trillions of dollars in sovereign wealth funds, with significant portions invested in Western markets and assets. If Gulf states feel unsafe, they may gradually shift their portfolios toward Asian markets and alternative assets, using their financial leverage as structural power.
The Emerging World Order
The Doha attack accelerates existing trends toward strategic diversification among middle powers. As noted by Nesrine Malik in The Guardian, Gulf states are now confronted with the question of "what happens after the US abandons us?". This reevaluation may manifest in several ways - strengthened GCC mechanisms, new security architectures, deepened ties with China, Russia, India, and other Asian powers, and military dependence.
Qatar's Prime Minister hinted at this recalibration when he told U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff that "if the US can't protect Qatar, then it will need to look towards other partners".
The attack may indirectly accelerate de-dollarization trends in the global economy. Gulf states, with their substantial financial resources, could play pivotal roles in alternative financial infrastructures being developed by China, Russia and other emerging powers.
This financial shift would represent a long-term challenge to American economic leadership, potentially more significant than immediate political disagreements, if Qatar shows assertiveness.
The Israeli strike on Doha represents a defining moment, illustrating the erosion of U.S. hegemony and the emergence of a more multipolar region where traditional allies pursue independent security arrangements.
The strike shattered regional security assumptions by proving that no Arab capital is safe, while revealing that security guarantees are conditional and that diplomacy becomes harder when mediators cannot protect participants. Arab states unified despite divisions, accelerating their pivot toward multipolarity and China's influence, culminating in an emergency Arab-Islamic summit that condemned Israeli actions but produced no practical military response.
This incident reveals that security guarantees are ultimately conditional on alignment with the protecting power's priorities, which in this case meant tolerating Israel's violation of Qatari sovereignty despite the presence of U.S. troops and substantial Qatari investments in the relationship.
The incident also highlights the diminishing space for diplomatic resolution of conflicts when parties can violate mediator sovereignty with impunity.
Another key takeaway is that in this emerging new order, the only certainty is that the region's conflicts will continue to evolve in unpredictable ways with implications far beyond its borders.
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