A week ago, Chief Minister Omar Abdullah was warning of an impending water crisis in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) due to extremely deficient winter precipitation this year. And now, the union territory in north India is facing flash floods due to very heavy rainfall and snowfall for the past two days.
The State Disaster Response Force (SDRF) is carrying out rescue operations to move people to safer locations. Normal life has been thrown out of gear and four deaths have been reported so far. Several rivers (Suran in Poonch, Ujh in Kathua) are overflowing, while landslides have reportedly led to the shutdown of the Jammu-Srinagar highway. Heavy snowfall on the higher passes of Kishtwar, Doda, Ramban, Poonch and Reasi has been reported.
Situation is grim in the neighbouring state of Himachal Pradesh as well where extremely heavy rainfall and snowfall have led to mayhem. Flash floods have been reported in Kullu. Avalanche alert has been issued for Lahaul Spiti. Educational institutions have been shut down in several districts of both Himachal and J&K. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned of more rainfall and snowfall in the region.
This fresh wave of winter precipitation in north India has been brought by Western Disturbance, a weather system that is crucial for winter precipitation in north India. Western Disturbances have been registering changes both in frequency and intensity, which is linked due to climate change, say researchers and scientists.
Water Crisis: From lack of water to flash floods
This year, J&K has had an almost snowless Chillai Kalan, the 40-day harshest cold spell between December 21 and January 31. Chillai Kalan is a Persian word that means ‘major cold’. But winter cold and snowfall are increasingly giving J&K a miss.
Between January 1 and February 27 this year, J&K has had a deficient winter precipitation of minus 61%, as noted by IMD. In the month of February, between February 1 and February 27, rainfall shortfall stood at minus 41%. This led to chief minister Abdullah warning people of an impending water crisis and the need to save water.
But, the scenario changed suddenly when within 24 hours, i.e. between 0830 hours of February 26 and 0830 hours of February 27, J&K received 311% excess precipitation. Within these 24 hours, Jammu district received 166.8 millimetre (mm) rainfall against its normal of 3.3 mm, thus reporting a rainfall departure of 4954%.
Rainfall departure (excess rainfall) is equally grim in other districts — Udhampur (1000%), Poonch (579%), Ramban (351%), Baramulla (382%), Bandipora (657%), Pulwama (226%), Anantnag (292%) — as reported by IMD.
Rising threat of flash floods in J&K
According to the Jammu & Kashmir State Disaster Management Authority (JKSDMA), J&K has witnessed many natural and human-induced disasters in the past. Owing to its peculiar topography, rugged terrain, extreme weather conditions and an underdeveloped economy, the union territory has suffered a lot on account of natural disasters. Hazards like earthquakes, floods, fires, droughts, avalanches and landslides lead to loss of human lives, as well as damages to public and private property.
All low-lying areas of the Kashmir Valley along with parts of Jammu region are prone to floods. Upper catchments of all the tributaries of the Jhelum, Indus, Chenab and Tawi rivers are prone to flash floods. Meanwhile, most parts of Jammu division (10 districts) are drought prone, notes JKSDMA.
A recent study conducted by the scientists of IMD and published in its Mausam journal shows that between 2010 and 2022, the union territory witnessed 2,863 extreme weather events in which 552 deaths were reported till December 31, 2022. After lightning, heavy rainfall was the second most frequent disaster. Highest mortality per event was due to heavy snow, and reported from Kupwara, Bandipora, Baramulla and Ganderbal.
As far as flash floods are concerned, the 2024 IMD study titled, Extreme weather events induced mortalities in jammu and Kashmir, India during 2010-2022, observed highest deaths in Kishtwar, Anantnag, Ganderbal and Doda.
The study concluded: “... for the union territory as a whole, the heavy rain and heavy snow have been two major disasters causing mortality, though flashfloods, thunderstorms and windstorms are gaining importance… there is a significant increase in mortality over the years particularly due to flash floods and windstorm.”
Changing pattern of Western Disturbances
One of the reasons for the increasing threat of flash floods in J&K is the changing nature of Western Disturbance.
A western disturbance (WD) is an extra-tropical storm that originates in the Mediterranean region. An area of reduced air pressure, this disturbance carries moisture from the Mediterranean and Caspian seas east, via the subtropical westerly jet stream. This brings rain and snow to Pakistan and northern India, which replenishes glaciers. These disturbances are crucial for the region’s water security, farming and tourism.
But research studies indicate that the pattern of Western Disturbances is changing, which is a matter of concern both in terms of food security and water security.
Climate scientists warn that there is a decreasing trend in winter snow or winter precipitation over the northern region of the country, as reported in Dialogue Earth. This is related to the less-frequent passage of western disturbances. Climate models suggest a further decrease of about 10-15% in the frequency of WDs by 2050 or so.
A 2019 WD study published by the American Meteorological Society concluded that: “The decline in WD frequency and intensity will cause a decrease in mean winter rainfall over Pakistan and northern India amounting to about 15% of the mean.”
A more recent study in 2023 assessed 39 Western Disturbance seasons between 1980 and 2019, and reported a declining trend in the frequency of these storms.
Have you liked the news article?