Book: ‘The China Dream: Great Power Thinking & Strategic Posture in the Post-American Era’
Author: Col (Retd) Liu Mingfu
Publisher: CN Times Books, Inc. (2015)
Self-reflexivity sets humans apart as beings driven by meaning. In addition to hope and hysteria, change also brings self-reflexivity. At the dawn of the new millennium when the world was headed towards the 21st century, International Relations scholars and analysts alike began to wonder how 'Power Transition' would look like in the next century. Col (Retd) Liu Mingfu enters this space with a Chinese perspective and a bold claim that this will be the 'Chinese Century'.
At a time when debates on world politics swing between multipolarity and bipolarity, when the USA's position as the world leader is diminishing, Col Mingfu's book, 'The China Dream - Great Power Thinking & Strategic Posture in the Post-American Era' helps us visualize a post-American world order led by China. Col Mingfu argues that the USA is declining as the leader of the world, China will in time overtake the USA to become the world leader marking an era of cooperation and competition not conflict unlike the Power Transitions of the past.
Becoming a ‘Super Power’
For Col Mingfu, The China Dream involves the Chinese economy leading the world propelling its rise as the strongest country in the world. He draws upon the vision of Sun Yat-Sen, the former President of the Republic of China who envisioned China with 'four mosts' - most strength, most excellence, most incorrupt and just government and the happiest citizens on the earth. This he believed would be possible when China would open its doors to foreign ideas, policies and learn from the mistakes of other nations which was later fostered by Deng Xiaoping's policies for ensuring basic sustenance for all, healthy growth and overall revitalization of the nation. This is the road map that Col Mingfu lays in his book as he moves forth analysing the nature of power competition, draws examples from history on how great nations rise and fall - from Holland during the renaissance to the USA post-Cold War and how China can scale up the power ladder while being cognizant of the challenges that lay ahead.
Col Mingfu notes that where there is competition among nations, the decline of an old champion is heralded by the rise of a new champion which marks a historic step forward for the world. He quotes the infamous American Secretary of State, Henry Kissinger who argued, "like a natural law, in every century, a nation rises with the power, will, intellectual and moral impetus to reshape the entire International system according to its values". He notes that unlike 'champions' of the past that grew through colonialism and conquest, China had to foster a civilization without conquest which he attests as its responsibility.
ln clear and simple terms he lays out that China would not be a 'hegemon'; only a global champion without being a 'conqueror' or a 'dominator' but a 'guide' who will lead the world through progress. He notes how in the past, the German and Japanese containment by the Allies and the USA's containment of the USSR led to World War II and the Cold War respectively, while being ambivalent of an American Containment of China, he notes that this will be that of mutual competition, cooperation and respect. Through his arguments across the book, he not only predicts the peaceful and benevolent rise of China but an egalitarian world order for all.
The Eagle and the Dragon or the Elephant?
Col Mingfu sets out by framing the rise of China not just as the struggle between two nations but between two systems - Chinese Socialism and American Capitalism with the former trumping as a superior system in the time to come. This he believes would bring China immense political and moral clout establishing it as a global power. He describes the rise of China not as a "You lose, I win" but a "You are second, I am first" model where power transition is not brought out by 'duels and boxing matches' but a track event - a marathon that would test the courage, will and patience of both the nations. By giving up conflictual competition during a power transition, the USA and China would be creating a new civilization and 'model for competition' leaving the Jungle world of international society behind. Since the USA is the old champion in the world order whom China has to move past the book revolves around China's rise and its actions around USA's orbit.
The Chinese New Year
Col Mingfu characterizes 'Pax Sinica' as a non-hegemonic world order characterized by a civilized, lawful, democratic and peaceful world guided by China. This in his own words not only entails replacing the old hegemon - the USA but ending the global orientation towards Unipolar hegemony altogether which he calls China's 'political nuclear weapon' as he claims China does not have the ambitions to be a promoter of global revolution like the USSR or an exporter of democracy like the USA. He frames it not only as a prosperous and secure world order eschewed from the ills of war but a 'moral' one based on peaceful development and prosperity of all.
He turns to history to note how China is the only major nation in the world without any 'original sin' of establishing colonies, selling and addicting people to opium and invading other nations. It would be characterized by mandarin-speakers leading a world where not only China's production capacity but in time, the Chinese spirit and values become the cultural foundations of a new era. Col Mingfu thus constructs a cultural and moral vision of 'Pax Sinica' radically departing from the economic, secure and democratic versions of Pax Americana or Britannica.
Theoretical Engagement with International Relations
Throughout the book Col Mingfu engages with many traditional theories of International Relations. By conceding with the realist conception of the world order being a Jungle, calling for a neoliberal cooperation and not conflict between the USA and China for relative gains for all while engaging with constructivism as he identifies China as a civilizational nation devoid of the guilt of the 'original sin' thereby bestowing it the moral right to lead the world.
Yet across the book, he principally gravitates towards Power Transition Theories in International Relations as it is principally about China replacing the USA as the world leader. After assigning the USA as the 'dominant power’ and China as the 'unsatisfied rising challenger' who is skittish with the hegemonic, tyrannical, non-democratic capitalist world order led by the former, he diverges from Organski noting that the accession of China would not be the result of a war between the two when they reach power parity but a civilized non zero sum competition which aligns with Lebow and Valentino's critique of Power Transition Theories.
Col Mingfu, however, does not construct China as a lamb in the jungle without military capability for self-defense, but a majestic elephant who is powerful, yet composed unlike the wolves of the jungle that teeth their capabilities to coerce others. For him military capability was not co-terminus with hegemony but a fundamental guarantee of national security and world peace, he grounds this in Buluodi's assertion that today, the principal function of armies is not to prevent war but to avert it. While simultaneously quoting Machiavelli's idea of the military being the backbone of the state and Herz's security dilemma as a justification for China's militarization Col Mingfu draws an oxymoron. He, therefore, consistently engages with mainstream theories of International Relations but never wholly as he brings his own distinct arguments across the book adjacent if not antagonistic to the former. His arguments have the potential to evolve into independent schools within power transition theories.
Col Mingfu's claims of China's rise being beneficial to all is not mere fluff, but is empirically grounded in the economic interdependence of global trade on China and vice-versa; by reminding us how every person in the world, on average, per year, buys one pair of Chinese-manufactured shoes, two meters of Chinese-produced fabric and three pieces of Chinese-produced clothing. His arguments are very persuasive and would make one almost wish China become the world’s leader tomorrow because he elucidates his claims with real world empirical data and facts.
Unlike many nationalist rhetorics across the world that call for the rise of a nation as the global leader based in self-congratulation and complete aversion towards ground realities, Col Mingfu openly concedes the poor state of affairs in Chinese politics and society today that could potentially hinder its rise. He notes how the nation is enmeshed with bureaucratic elitism, civil unrest due to a growing gap between the CCP and the Chinese citizenry, polarization, corruption and the nation on its way to become a 'crony market capitalism'. This places him as a pragmatist not an aloof romantic ruminating over Tianxia while the Yangtze floods on earth which adds strength of his arguments.
Col Mingfu frames the rise of China as not only beneficial to China and the USA - the old and new champions but for the peace of the whole world. He notes how the Korean War proved that both the nations cannot change each other. He continues his stance of mutual benefits, survival and victory to both throughout the book which almost makes him seem like pacifying Washington DC against a threat from China and to 'pivot out of Asia'. The book comes off as a response (but not restricted) to USA's former Deputy Secretary of States James Steinberg who asked China's 'strategic reassurance' that its rise will not come at the expense of the safety and happiness of the other nations of the world.
'The China Dream' is also laid with contradictions, for example Col Mingfu notes how the notion of 'all under heaven' has never extended beyond Chinese borders but China often flexes itself in the Taiwan strait, South China Sea and its territorial disputes with India reflect otherwise, in another instance he notes how Chinese reconnaissance planes would never reach the west coast of the USA, but this did happen years back when a Chinese "Intelligence-gathering balloon" flew past North America and the contiguous USA before it was shot down, he also claims that in the thousands of years of Chinese history it is hard to find even one example for China attacking a country without being attacked first; he only has to be reminded of what transpired in the subcontinent 64 years ago. Such contradictions are apparent across the book challenging the consistency of Col Mingfu's claims.
Col Mingfu thus on one hand calls China to take up the mantle of a guide-global power to usher a new era of world peace while reassuring the rest of the world that China's rise is in everyone's interests. Across the book he does not act as a mouthpiece for either Washington DC nor Beijing as is apparent in his critique of the Chinese handling of domestic issues but emerges as an independent analyst of not just the rise of China and a post-American world order but power transitions in the latter half of the second millennium.
The book is a must read not only for practitioners of foreign policy, scholars of International Relations and analysts but also social scientists who theorize the history and nature of Power Transition in International Relations. This makes 'The China Dream', the little red book of China's rise and growth as a great power in the International Sphere and is thereby a recommended read.
References
Liu, M. (2015). The China dream: Great power thinking & strategic posture in the post American era. CN Times Books.
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