Political leaders have an inherent weakness for elevating those from their own flock to figures of mythic proportions. Jammu and Kashmir has its own specimen.
Chief Minister Omar Abdullah, while opposing a private member's bill moved by National Conference's Chief Whip Mubarak Gul (a bill, interestingly, seeking salary and allowances for his own post), took a moment to honour Gul with a consolation prize: the title of prophetic. Omar recalled that on August 4, 2019, while colleagues at the party headquarters were anxious and deliberating, Gul "all of a sudden prophesied" that Article 370 and 35-A would go, that J&K would lose its statehood and be truncated into two Union Territories. The Chief Minister had a hearty laugh recounting it. The House, it was reported, enjoyed moments of amusement.
Wrapped in an adulatory anecdote that frames Gul as a ‘visionary’, the chief minister found an honourable way to soften the rejection of his colleague’s attempt to secure pecuniary benefits for himself and for the future holders of his position in the House. The Bill was withdrawn. A legend was born.
The Prophecy and a Rumour
The script worked well. Nobody batted an eyelid as Mubarak Gul was raised to the exalted status of Kashmir’s Nostradamus. Nobody asked: what exactly had been prophesied? Public memory is often short-lived, and the memory of a politician is prone to selective amnesia.
Let’s go back down memory lane to the days in the run-up to the August 5, 2019 J&K Re-organisation Act that robbed Jammu and Kashmir of its autonomy and statehood, and truncated it into two Union Territories. Panic was already in the air as the government abruptly suspended the Amarnath yatra, began forcibly shunting out tourists, imposed restrictions, and added massive deployment of troops.
Amidst this panic, rumours about the abrogation of Articles 370 and 35-A, and about the reorganisation of J&K into Union Territories, were not whispered secrets confined to a few prophetic ears. They were circulating widely, though with varying degrees of geographical specificity, across Delhi, Srinagar, Jammu, Leh, and Kargil. The panic on the ground was already deep and spreading. The political atmosphere was not calm where a sudden flash of prophecy was born.
Every observer, informed by BJP’s long-term desires in Kashmir, the unfolding events and alarming rumours, had some version of the same terrifying suspicion, even though there was some denial informed by knowledge.
The constitutional experts and legal commentators argued that the government had no legitimate powers under the Indian Constitution to unilaterally abrogate Article 370 or diminish J&K's statehood. The government's move on August 5, 2019 was constitutionally audacious to the point of brazenness, and the Supreme Court's subsequent validation of it remains one of the most contested judicial decisions in recent Indian history.
For political observers and politicians, the reasons for skepticism were the timing. In Omar Abdullah’s own words, he laughed at Gul's prediction, told him it was impossible, and reasoned that even if the Centre intended to do it, they would save it for an election year to reap the electoral benefit. Others, like Mubarak Gul, perhaps, were guided by their own political intuition of the abnormality of the times in which many ‘impossibilities’ could become ‘possibilities’.
So, was the ‘Messiah of Prophecies’ relying on well-circulating rumours and political intuition? There’s another uncomfortable dimension to this anecdote that the Chief Minister did not share in his lavish praise of his partyman, and which may be more illuminating.
Meeting Modi and Omar’s Credulity
Three days before August 5, Omar Abdullah and his father Farooq Abdullah met Prime Minister Modi in Delhi. They returned to Srinagar and told their party colleagues that the Centre was preparing for fresh assembly elections, that the troop buildup and administrative changes were electoral preparation, allaying fears of any constitutional or military onslaught on Kashmir. At least, this is the theory of what transpired during the meeting with Modi that circulated within National Conference circles. Going by that version, the Abdullahs took the PM’s words as true but were shocked to find themselves placed under detention when the final demolition of the state political and geographical landscape happened.
That’s the story that is more significant and revealing about the gullibility of Omar Abdullah who can insulate himself from rumours because the Prime Minister whispered more pleasing words in his ears. That’s the inconvenient truth that the CM sought to deflect while lauding Mubarak Gul for his political acumen and wondering about the “unresolved mystery” of the secrets of his mystical powers.
What If and But
The seemingly harmless and entertaining anecdote prompts a question. Does it matter whether Omar Abdullah had a prophecy like his colleague? Could he have done any better with or without Mubarak Gul’s premonition? The answer to that is almost certainly no. Given the BJP’s hardcore right-wing politics and an obsession with Kashmir’s special status, it would still have rolled ahead with its agenda and its oppressive architecture of restrictions to control Jammu and Kashmir’s politicians and citizens. In most likelihood, no amount of alarm by Omar Abdullah, his party, or any other political formation could have changed what happened on August 5, 2019.
The more crucial question is: can Omar Abdullah now do what he could not do in 2019? The record since he took office after the October 2024 elections is not encouraging. He campaigned loudly on the restoration of Article 370, even though for any informed observer and voter that was an unrealistic demand. Yet, it stood out as a political commitment, a statement of where the NC stood. He challenged the Centre, spoke of the need for statehood, made lofty promises that could fatten his vote bank.
Once in office, the tone shifted entirely. His politics since then has been a calculated submission to New Delhi. Though he himself frames it as ‘conciliatory and pragmatic’, it has produced virtually nothing in return. He has fully abandoned 370. When a resolution on 370 restoration was pushed in the assembly soon after he was anointed on the throne with curtailed powers under the new arrangement, he actively resisted a formal legislative statement on the issue he had campaigned upon.
Much worse, he rarely even squeaks about the less contentious return of statehood. He maintains that it is in discussion with Delhi, but there is nothing more on ground than the usual statements one occasionally hears. There’s no sign of any commitment on record from the Centre, no timeline, no legislative movement other than the same cosmetic response that New Delhi has offered for six years: statehood will be restored "at an appropriate time." That phrase, like Waiting for Godot, has now outlasted a Supreme Court judgment and an assembly election.
Whether it was his child-like innocence or his faith in the PM’s words in 2019, Omar Abdullah had little or no knowledge in 2019. That cannot be pleaded as a case today. He has full knowledge of where he stands, the transformed political contours of Jammu and Kashmir, political ideology of the BJP, and its ability to ride roughshod over procedures and laws to suit its ideological whims. There is no information deficit about any of this.
The only deficit is the lack of spine to push back. His government gives the Centre the space it needs, managing the optics of resisting without offering substance, and carrying on with the art of making a promise without fulfilling it. Where is that going to lead him or Jammu and Kashmir?
Perhaps, his Nostradamus, instead of pushing a bill for his own benefit, could teach him the art of prophecy.
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