Israel Elections: Kingmakers Nobody Wants Part-II

(This news article is two-part series. Part-II is published today. Part-I can be read here.)

In Israel's parliamentary elections scheduled for October 27, more than two million Arab citizens could help determine whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains in office.

Their votes may decide which political bloc commands the 61 seats needed to form a government in the 120-member Knesset.

Yet there is a striking contradiction.

Even if Arab voters help defeat Netanyahu, the parties representing them may still be considered unacceptable partners by the Jewish-led political formations seeking to replace him.

It is a peculiar version of the kingmaker problem: a community can possess enough electoral influence to determine who governs, while remaining largely excluded from government itself.

For Indian readers, the predicament has a familiar ring.

Muslim voters in India are frequently described as decisive in closely contested constituencies. Political parties calculate their support, seek endorsements from community leaders and appeal for tactical voting to defeat rivals.

Yet once governments are formed, Muslim representation in legislatures, cabinets, the bureaucracy and other institutions frequently remains far below the community's share of the population.

Israel and India operate under different electoral systems, but both demonstrate that electoral significance does not necessarily translate into political empowerment.

Different Systems, Similar Exclusion

Israel elects all 120 members of its Parliament through nationwide proportional representation.

The country functions as a single constituency. Voters choose party lists rather than individual representatives from geographical constituencies.

Parties securing at least 3.25 per cent of valid votes qualify for parliamentary representation.

With Arabs constituting roughly one-fifth of Israel's population, simple demographic arithmetic might suggest around 24 seats.

But Arab-majority parties have never reached that figure.

Their best performance came in March 2020, when the Joint List secured 15 seats after Arab turnout approached 65 per cent.

In the 2022 election, Arab turnout fell to 53.2 per cent.

India's first-past-the-post electoral system produces a different form of underrepresentation.

Muslims accounted for 14.2 per cent of India's population in the 2011 Census, the last completed census providing nationwide religious population figures.

Yet only 24 Muslims were elected to the 543-member Lok Sabha in 2024, representing approximately 4.4 per cent of the House.

Indian Muslims generally exercise electoral influence through national and regional parties rather than a unified Muslim political formation.

Their votes can determine the outcome in particular constituencies, but that influence rarely produces proportional representation nationally.

Israel presents almost the reverse arrangement.

Palestinian citizens have distinct political parties, and proportional representation should make it easier for them to translate votes into seats.

But coalition politics imposes another barrier: their representatives can enter Parliament without being accepted into government.

Professor Asad Ghanem, a political scientist at the University of Haifa, says this problem is rooted in the relationship between Israel's Jewish national character and the political status of its Palestinian citizens.

"Although Israel has never treated them as fully equal citizens, they have the right to vote, to stand for election, and to be represented in the Knesset," he said during a telephone interview conducted a fortnight ago.

The distinction between formal voting rights and meaningful political equality is central to understanding their predicament.

Contested Ballot

The tensions became visible earlier this month when Israel's Supreme Court considered attempts to exclude leading Arab political formations from the October 27 election.

The Central Elections Committee had disqualified the Arab-majority Joint List and the Islamist-rooted Ra'am party, also known as the United Arab List.

It also sought to exclude individual candidates, including Hadash lawmaker Ofer Cassif and Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh.

The Supreme Court overturned the bans on the two political lists, allowing them to contest the election.

Cassif was also permitted to run, while Abu Shehadeh withdrew his candidacy after it became clear that the court would not approve it.

Outside the court, Arab lawmakers and their supporters protested against efforts to silence their political voices.

Cassif, a Jewish member of the predominantly Arab Joint List, told protesters they would fight for "all our children, Palestinians and Israelis, Jews and Arabs."

He had earlier described the Palestinian vote as a possible "game changer."

National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir appeared in a lawyer's robe to argue for Abu Shehadeh's exclusion.

The human rights organisation Adalah criticised the disqualification attempts, arguing that they imposed discriminatory standards on Arab political representation while allowing far-right Jewish parties to participate.

Ghanem said such challenges were not unusual.

"Over roughly the past 30 years, almost every election has seen attempts to disqualify at least one Arab party or candidate," he said.

What distinguished the present election, he explained, was the breadth of the challenges.

Arab political formations representing Islamist, nationalist and communist traditions had all faced attempts at exclusion.

The controversy raised a fundamental question about the limits of Israeli democracy.

If a country's principal minority parties must repeatedly defend their right to appear on the ballot, how equal is its political system?

Community Divided Over Participation

Arab political leaders themselves disagree about the best route to influence.

The revived Joint List brings together Hadash, Ta'al and Balad, representing different traditions of Palestinian nationalism, left-wing politics and Arab-Jewish cooperation respectively.

Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, has adopted a more pragmatic approach.

With roots in Israel's Islamic Movement, Ra'am argues that Arab citizens should use their parliamentary influence to secure improvements in housing, education, infrastructure, employment and public safety.

Ghanem explained that these differences reflect distinct ideological traditions.

"Today, there is a communist current, which is a joint Jewish-Arab political movement. There is also a Palestinian nationalist current and an Islamic current," he said.

"So, when we speak about Arab politics in Israel, we are not talking about one ideological bloc."

The nationalist parties and the Communist Party have generally been reluctant to join Israeli governments because doing so could make them responsible for policies towards Gaza, the occupied West Bank and the wider Palestinian question.

Ra'am has pursued a different strategy.

In 2021, Abbas joined the coalition supporting the government headed by Naftali Bennett and later Yair Lapid.

The move represented an unprecedented experiment in direct participation by an independent Arab party in an Israeli governing coalition.

Ghanem said Ra'am's approach focused more heavily on immediate civic concerns.

"It talks about equality, education, allocation of budgets, land, and other resources," he said.

The other Arab parties, he explained, place greater emphasis on Palestinian national rights and resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Abbas defended his approach by arguing that Arab citizens could not indefinitely postpone improvements in their daily lives.

"I told the Arab citizens of the State of Israel that I want to address the economic, social, educational and housing problems in their communities," he said.

He rejected suggestions that this meant abandoning the Palestinian question.

"I am concentrating on getting housing, education, infrastructure, employment and personal security while waiting for the larger conflict to be resolved," he said.

Supporters viewed the experiment as proof that Arab votes could be converted into bargaining power and public resources.

Critics argued that participation risked legitimising a political system that continued to privilege Jewish national identity while maintaining the occupation of Palestinian territories.

Ra'am has now placed Yoav Segalovitz, a Jewish former senior police officer and politician, second on its electoral list.

"There is a difficult history between Arabs and Jews in this country," Segalovitz acknowledged, "but there is also a shared future."

The Joint List offers another route, emphasising Arab political unity and the defence of Palestinian national identity.

Why Arab Voters Stay Away

One of the most significant obstacles to greater Arab representation is low electoral turnout.

Ghanem explained that the demographic composition of Palestinian society accounts for part of the gap.

Palestinian citizens have a younger population, meaning a larger proportion are below voting age.

Among eligible Israeli voters, Arabs account for approximately 16 per cent, rather than their roughly 21 per cent share of the total population.

But demographics alone cannot explain their underrepresentation.

"The larger problem is mistrust," Ghanem said.

"Many Palestinian citizens do not trust the Israeli state and its policies. At the same time, many also do not trust their own political leadership."

He said turnout among Arab voters had hovered around 50 per cent in recent elections, compared with approximately 75 per cent among Jewish voters.

Ghanem considers the boycott of parliamentary elections counterproductive.

"From my point of view, this is a serious mistake. Palestinian citizens need to participate as fully as possible in elections to maximise their representation," he said.

He also criticised divisions among Arab parties, arguing that many voters would prefer a unified list.

Ghanem expects participation to increase in the coming election.

"It could reach around 60 per cent. That would be significant, but it would still not be enough to fully reflect the community's potential political weight," he said.

Tal Schneider, political correspondent for The Times of Israel, challenged the assumption that Arab citizens were politically indifferent.

She pointed out that turnout in municipal elections could reach 80 per cent.

"They know how to vote. It's not about not understanding the system," she said.

The difference, she suggested, reflected frustration with national politics.

In Haifa's predominantly Arab Wadi Nisnas neighbourhood, resident Walid Bolus captured this exhaustion during an earlier election.

"Enough, how many times can we vote?" he asked.

The remark predates the current campaign, but the frustration it expressed remains relevant.

An Israel Democracy Institute survey found that 48 per cent of Arab respondents believed voting could change their situation, while 52 per cent disagreed.

Erosion of Citizenship

For Palestinian citizens of Israel, the political atmosphere has deteriorated sharply since the October 7, 2023, attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza.

Ghanem described the period as a historic turning point.

"Israeli society has moved further to the right and has become much more militant towards Palestinians," he said.

"In my view, what has happened in Gaza amounts to genocide, while we are also seeing ethnic cleansing in parts of the West Bank."

He argued that Palestinian citizens inside Israel had also suffered the consequences of this political shift.

"Relations between the state and the Palestinian minority have deteriorated dramatically," he said.

According to Ghanem, the space available for Palestinian political expression has narrowed substantially.

"We were never equal before October 7, but today we face a much greater danger," he said.

"There is considerable support within Israeli society for restricting the citizenship rights of Palestinians in Israel."

He also criticised Jewish opposition parties for refusing to accept Arab participation in government.

"Much of the opposition is also reluctant to accept even Mansour Abbas, who wants to participate in a governing coalition, because he is an Arab," Ghanem said.

"His participation challenges what I would describe as Jewish political hegemony."

The implications extend beyond the next election.

For Palestinian citizens, the question is whether their citizenship can protect them against an increasingly exclusionary political environment.

Can Arab Votes Defeat Netanyahu?

Despite these obstacles, Arab voters could play a decisive role on October 27.

Israel's fragmented parliamentary system requires a coalition to command at least 61 seats.

With Netanyahu's right-wing alliance facing a competitive opposition, increased Arab turnout could alter the balance of power.

Arab leaders have intensified efforts to mobilise voters.

"We can ensure the formation of a new government of change," Mansour Abbas told media outlets.

Ahmad Tibi, a leading figure in the Joint List, said removing Netanyahu's government was a priority.

"We are placing as our top priority getting rid of the extreme right-wing government of Netanyahu, Smotrich and Ben Gvir," he said.

Yet several Jewish opposition leaders remain unwilling to include Arab parties in a governing coalition.

Gadi Eisenkot, the former military chief emerging as a leading challenger to Netanyahu, has expressed opposition to forming a coalition with Arab parties.

Arab lawmakers may therefore help determine the outcome without being accepted as governing partners.

This is where the comparison with India becomes particularly revealing.

Indian Muslims are frequently asked to vote strategically to prevent the victory of parties they regard as hostile to their interests.

In Israel, Arab citizens face a similar calculation, although their electoral system allows them to vote for distinct Arab political formations.

In both countries, minority voters can become indispensable during elections and dispensable during the distribution of political power.

Beyond Netanyahu

Ghanem believes the problem facing Palestinian citizens extends beyond Netanyahu and his governing alliance.

"The entire Israeli political map has shifted to the right," he said.

"The question for Palestinian citizens is therefore no longer simply whether to cooperate with the right or the left."

He argued that much of the political spectrum had moved in a direction deeply problematic for Arab citizens.

Schneider, meanwhile, expects a government led by Eisenkot to pursue a different domestic agenda, including changes to law enforcement and the treatment of violent Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank.

She said Eisenkot had indicated that he would restore administrative detention against violent settlers and evacuate illegal settlement outposts.

But she was less optimistic about fundamental changes to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Schneider doubted that Eisenkot would embrace a two-state solution simply because European governments or American Democrats demanded it.

Ghanem believes the longer-term solution requires a more fundamental transformation.

"Many Palestinian citizens seek a transformation in the character of the state because, in their view, defining Israel exclusively as a Jewish state prevents Arabs from achieving full equality," he said.

He argued that Palestinian citizens had little choice but to continue demanding equal rights in their homeland.

"Palestinian citizens have no real alternative but to continue demanding equal rights in their homeland and a more democratic political order, what we describe as a 'state of all its citizens,'" he said.

"I am not optimistic. But I do not see another path open to Palestinian citizens of Israel."

He also emphasised the importance of developments beyond Israel.

"Whether change becomes possible will depend not only on Arab politics inside Israel. It will also depend on wider Palestinian politics, developments in the Arab world, and the degree of international pressure on Israel."

Limits of Electoral Arithmetic

The predicament of Israel's Arab voters raises questions that extend well beyond the country's borders.

For India's Muslims, the experience offers an unsettling comparison.

A community can possess significant electoral influence without securing proportionate representation in government. It can help defeat a political party without necessarily obtaining meaningful power from the party that replaces it.

And it can remain economically and politically marginalised despite participating repeatedly in democratic elections.

The difference between the two countries remains important.

India's Constitution guarantees secular citizenship, while Israel defines itself as a Jewish state. Their political histories, legal frameworks and systems of representation are not identical.

Yet the democratic contradiction is strikingly similar.

Minorities are counted when elections approach, their voting patterns analysed and their support sought.

But the more difficult questions concern what happens after governments are formed.

Will minority neighbourhoods receive adequate public investment? Will their children enjoy equal opportunities? Will their representatives exercise real authority? Will the state protect their rights regardless of which party wins?

On October 27, Israel's Arab citizens may help determine Netanyahu's future.

But their deeper struggle is not simply about who becomes Prime Minister.

It is about whether a community that has lived in its homeland for generations can move from being an electoral calculation to becoming an equal partner in deciding the country's future.

For Indian Muslims, watching from another democracy where their votes are frequently discussed but their political representation remains disproportionately small, the question carries an unmistakable resonance.