MUZAFFARABAD: The ongoing agitation in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir has cast uncertainty over the July 27 Legislative Assembly elections.
More than a month of protests, shutter-down strikes, internet suspension and security tensions have brought electioneering to a near standstill. The extraordinary situation has prompted serious questions about the prospects for free, fair and peaceful elections.
According to the Election Commission, a total of 852 candidates are contesting the elections. Of these, 716 candidates are vying for 33 territorial constituencies, while 136 candidates are contesting 12 seats reserved for Jammu and Kashmir refugees residing in Pakistan.
However, the electoral process has been overshadowed by a political confrontation that has gripped the region for more than a month. The prolonged unrest has disrupted electioneering across the territory, with political parties struggling to reach voters amid curfews, protests, internet blackouts and continuing uncertainty.
The latest political developments have further complicated the election landscape. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has announced a boycott of the elections, citing the government's declaration of the Awami Action Committee as a banned organisation and the handling of the ongoing protest movement. The decision has triggered mixed reactions from political parties and the public, with some supporting the boycott while others describing it as a withdrawal from the democratic process.
Former Prime Minister Sardar Tanveer Ilyas has meanwhile joined the Istehkam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP). Several candidates belonging to the Pakistan Peoples’ Party (PPP) have also switched their allegiance to the IPP alongside him.
The emergence of the IPP has drawn attention because of its experience in neighbouring Gilgit-Baltistan. Although all 16 IPP candidates lost in the Gilgit-Baltistan elections, the party later secured the support of five independently elected legislators and, along with two reserved seats, increased its strength to seven seats, eventually becoming part of the government. In Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir as well, the entry of several influential politicians into the IPP has altered the political alignments ahead of the polls.
Despite widespread speculation, neither the Election Commission nor the government has officially announced any postponement of the elections. On the ground, however, election campaigning appears almost paralysed.
Curfews, shutter-down strikes, suspension of internet services, protest sit-ins and continuing unrest have made it extremely difficult for political parties to campaign. Candidates have also encountered public resistance in several areas. Pakistan Muslim League-N (PML-N) President Shah Ghulam Qadir, along with several other candidates from both the PML-N and the PPP, reportedly faced angry public reactions while campaigning.
The ruling Pakistan Peoples’ Party has called for postponing the elections in view of the prevailing situation. The Pakistan Muslim League-N insists that elections should be held on schedule. IPP chief Sardar Tanveer Ilyas has also expressed doubts that elections can be conducted under the existing conditions.
One Month of Protests
The region-wide protest movement has now completed one month. Beginning on June 5, the agitation initially revolved around the 38-point Charter of Demands presented by the Awami Action Committee. Over time, however, it has evolved into a much broader political and constitutional crisis.
The unrest has severely disrupted daily life while raising serious questions about the government's writ, administrative functioning and the feasibility of conducting elections.
The movement began after an incident in Khai Gala in Poonch district, where the Awami Action Committee alleged that one of its core committee members, Umar Nazir Kashmiri, survived an assassination attempt while his associate, Shahzaib Habib, was killed.
The incident intensified protests in Rawalakot. The government-imposed curfew in several areas and suspended internet services across the territory. Those services have yet to be restored.
Clashes between protesters and security forces have since been reported from Rawalakot, Kotli and several other areas. According to various reports, more than 20 people have lost their lives during the unrest.
Beginning June 9, protest caravans from Mirpur Division and other regions converged on Rawalakot, where thousands of demonstrators staged a sit-in at Darek. The protest continues even after the passage of one month.
From Bhimber to Taobat, repeated shutter-down strikes and wheel-jam protests have severely disrupted business activity, transport and daily life, while election-related activities have virtually come to a standstill.
Tensions have escalated further in recent days, including in the capital Muzaffarabad. Protesters marched through the city in different groups, leading to clashes with police and security personnel. Reports claimed that tear gas shelling and aerial firing took place at some locations and that protesters attempted to stage a sit-in near the airport. Police denied these allegations, describing them as misleading propaganda.
One of the defining features of the latest phase of the movement has been the large participation of women, which observers describe as an unprecedented development in the political history of the region.
Protests and clashes have also been reported from Rawalakot, Bagh, Abbaspur, Mandhol, Mirpur, Kotli, Jhelum Valley and several other areas. Reports also said that a young man was killed in firing in Dadyal.
At the heart of the dispute is the implementation of an agreement signed on October 4, 2025, between the federal government, the regional government and the Awami Action Committee.
The Awami Action Committee maintains that although the government signed the agreement, it failed to implement it in full. It also says that commitments relating to the 12 assembly seats reserved for Jammu and Kashmir refugees residing in Pakistan remain unfulfilled.
One Contentious Demand
The federal and regional governments, however, insist that 37 of the committee's 38 demands have already been accepted. According to the government, only the issue of the refugee seats remains unresolved because it is a constitutional matter that can only be decided by the elected Legislative Assembly.
The administration has also taken strict measures during the protests.
The Poonch administration has recommended departmental action and suspension of salaries for more than 70 government employees accused of participating in the protests. Those facing action include teachers, health department staff and employees of other government departments.
Speaking to the media, Poonch Commissioner Sardar Waheed Khan warned that if protesters did not disperse peacefully on their own, the administration would take action before the elections to ensure that the electoral process could proceed.
If the current crisis is not resolved soon, the conduct of free, fair and peaceful elections on July 27 may become an extraordinary test for the region's institutions.
After a month of continuous unrest, the crisis is no longer confined to demands for subsidies or economic relief. It has evolved into a much larger test of public trust in government, constitutional governance and political stability in Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir.