What the US and Israel planned as a surgical conclusion to a decades-long-standoff has rapidly spiralled into something far larger. The strikes have killed Iran’s Supreme Leader. On February 28, 2026, the strikes, which appear to be deliberate, also hit a girls' school in Minab, southern Iran, killing 165 schoolgirls and staff.
The conflict has already spread from targeted airstrikes to missile exchanges over Dubai and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most critical oil shipping lane. US-Israel act has ignited a fuse that is quickly spreading throughout the Middle East's geopolitical tinderbox and beyond, revealing some key trends.
Firstly, the Global South is being dragged in. Alliances are fracturing; strange and twisted realities are emerging; and rising energy prices and instability are threatening economies far beyond the Middle East.
Secondly, Iran's defence and survival strategy deliberately pushes control down to dozens of independent regional commands. Iran's post-2003 "Mosaic Defence" strategy devolves authority to 31 autonomous provincial commands, like the Basij. This cellular structure ensures resilience through independent, asymmetric warfare, making it impossible to defeat Iran by merely decapitating its central military leadership.
Thirdly, both sides are deploying AI-powered cyber tools, surveillance systems, and autonomous drones, marking a new phase in global conflicts.
Even more significantly, a new global order is being shaped – one that is difficult to predict.
The Reshaping Chessboard
For Washington and Jerusalem, the strategy of collapsing Iran by eliminating the Supreme Leader has turned out to be a failed gamble. Instead of being cowed down, Iran unleashed a relentless barrage of missiles and drones at Israel and at every country seen as hosting US power. Far from being isolated, Iran is gaining standing across the Muslim world and beyond.
On March 18, Iran confirmed the killing of top security official Dr Ali Larijani, deepening the crisis. Internally, cracks are showing in Washington too. A senior US counterterrorism official, Joe Kent, resigned and urged Trump to "reverse course." Trump publicly blamed NATO partners for staying out, exposing friction both inside and outside the alliance.
Air raid sirens rang out over Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha, and Kuwait City within hours. Iran's retaliation was deliberate, designed to drag the whole region in. The UAE, long a symbol of Gulf stability, found itself on the front line. Airports were closed and casualties are adding up.
The US State Department told American citizens to leave over a dozen Middle Eastern countries immediately, including Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar.
Iran's messaging is clear. It will hit every US base in the region, but it pledges to protect Mecca and Medina. As a Shia power that has consistently backed the Palestinian cause, despite the sectarian divide, Iran is positioning itself as a defender of the broader Muslim world.
The conflict is also shaping new emerging alliances and power brokers.
Pakistan has stepped in as a quiet mediator between Saudi Arabia and Iran, preventing what could have been a serious Sunni-Shia flare-up. That role signals that a bloc of Gulf states, Turkey, Pakistan, and Indonesia can gain new collective weight.
In South Asia, the war is forcing a reckoning. Despite their egos and hostile relations, India and Pakistan both hold critical regional roles. Learning lessons from the ongoing war on Iran, Pakistan, in particular, is emerging as a bridge within the Muslim world.
Importantly, China and Russia are consolidating their position as the primary beneficiaries of a new, multipolar world order defined by military strength.
The Gulf: Caught in a Quagmire
The war is an existential nightmare that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states—Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Oman—have spent years attempting to avoid. By keeping diplomatic and economic lines open with Tehran while preserving security ties with Washington, these countries have managed to strike a careful balance. Now that balance has been destroyed and challenged.
Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates were particularly hard hit by the Iranian retaliatory strikes. Attacks on its facilities forced Qatar Energy, the second-largest producer of LNG in the world, to suspend operations, causing the price of gas to soar worldwide.
The region may also see a 27% decline in foreign visitors this year, which could result in revenue losses of up to $56 billion.
With missiles over Riyadh, Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, its flagship economic transformation plan, is now at risk. For now, Riyadh is showing restraint.
Oman's position is perhaps the most ironic. Long the region's trusted back-channel, Muscat had been quietly brokering US-Iran nuclear talks, only to be struck by Iranian fire itself, learning the stark lesson that in this war, neutrality offers no protection.
Gulf countries are gradually realising that instead of protecting them, the US is safeguarding Israel and its interests at the cost of the resources of Muslim countries in the Middle East.
While the Gulf's hard-won reputation as a safe haven is taking a hit, GCC states privately back the US but are walking a tightrope publicly.
Further North, a cautious Turkey has been unusually blunt. Foreign Minister Fidan publicly named the US and Israel as the ones who started this, a statement that reflects a real fear. Turkey already hosts the world's largest refugee population, and a collapse in Iran could send millions more across its border. Contingency planning along the Iranian frontier has reportedly been underway since mid-2025.
Ankara's challenge is to stay on good terms with both Washington and Tehran, while ensuring Kurdish groups don't exploit the chaos.
South Asian Powder Keg
South Asia is the tinderbox just waiting to catch fire if the Gulf is the epicenter. India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed rivals, are already on a collision course. The present global conflict tears apart the region's precarious security and economic structure, amid a huge trust deficit and wars, mainly over Kashmir, since 1947.
Despite its diplomatic balancing act, Pakistan is in dire straits. The Strait of Hormuz closure has squeezed its energy supplies, forcing school closures, remote work, and fuel rationing. The economy, already fragile, is under serious strain.
Balochistan is the deeper worry. Bordering both Iran and Afghanistan, it is vulnerable to proxy pressure. Pakistani analysts warn that a cornered Israel, in coordination with India, could fan insurgency there to threaten Gwadar and CPEC, though New Delhi denies any involvement.
However, Pakistan and Iran appear to be quietly turning a page, with Turkey and China reportedly playing a constructive role in easing tensions. China's "all-weather" partnership with Pakistan remains the strategic anchor. With CPEC and the strategic deep-sea port of Gwadar at stake, Beijing has every reason to keep Pakistan stable.
Pakistan’s “all-weather-friendship” with China remains both an opportunity and a cornerstone of its regional strategy, primarily counterbalancing India.
Pakistan's western flank is deteriorating. Islamabad accuses Kabul of sheltering the TTP and has launched deep strikes inside Afghanistan in response; Afghan forces have hit back with munitions widely considered beyond their own capability, pointing to third-party support.
The crisis sharpened on March 16 when a Pakistani airstrike reportedly hit a Kabul rehabilitation hospital treating over 2,000 drug addicts, killing at least 100 people. Pakistan denies targeting any hospital. India condemned the strikes at the UN, adding a diplomatic dimension to what is fast becoming a multi-sided confrontation on Pakistan's western border.
Tensions eased after the announcement of Ramzan pause between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Yet, amidst these pressures, Rawalpindi is emerging as a central bolt in the security architecture of the Middle East. The Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed on September 17, 2025, is a significant security partnership, which lays down that any act of aggression against one country is an attack on both.
This carves out an important role for Pakistan with its nuclear capability, a large military, a border with Iran, and credibility across the Muslim world. If it navigates this crisis with steady neutrality, balancing security needs while acting as a regional bridge, it could emerge as a de facto leader of the Muslim world, even though it may not be acceptable to Tel Aviv and its allies.
India is in a very different, but no less dangerous, situation even as the conflict has led to a severe shortage of energy supplies in India, the third-largest oil importer in the world, gets most of its LNG and crude from the Middle East.
India dramatic shift in recent years in favour of Israel and the US, reflected also in its notable silence on the US-Israeli strikes while denouncing Iran's retaliation, creates an odd dilemma for India.
Although it has a significant strategic investment in Iran's Chabahar port, now put on halt, it is diplomatically aligned with a coalition bombing Iran, putting its $500 million investment and its entire Central Asian strategy at risk.
Additionally, as it watches its strategic heft vanish, India is rushing to secure supply lines as Russian oil purchases are now restricted by US agreements, though it managed safe passage for two to three flagged vessels through the Strait of Hormuz since February 28.
The Winners
Two powerful nations - Russia and China - are closely monitoring the ledger and calculating gains and losses amid this chaos.
For the time being, Russia clearly benefits. Due to Western sanctions, Moscow's negotiating position with China and India is now strengthened by the Gulf's disruptions, which are increasing demand for Russian crude oil. With Urals crude trading well above the $60 per barrel level, rising global oil and gas prices have given the Kremlin a financial lifeline. The conflict has also diverted American attention, relieving some of the pressure on Russia's front in Ukraine, and eased US sanctions on Russian oil at sea.
However, Iran's collapse would result in a huge refugee crisis and possible NATO incursion, posing a strategic risk for Russia.
China, which has become the most outspoken opponent of the US-Israeli strikes, has a direct interest in the continued existence of the current Iranian state because it is a significant purchaser of Iranian discounted crude, 13% of its petroleum requirements. The instability in Balochistan poses a direct threat to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), especially the CPEC terminal at Gwadar.
But China is also shielded. It has more than one billion barrels of strategic petroleum reserves, enough to last for several months. Its enormous domestic coal industry and investments in renewable energy provide a buffer that other Asian economies do not. Beijing must decide whether to continue acting as a "neutral mediator" or whether the loss of its economic interests will compel it to take a more assertive stance in the Gulf.
However, renewed Chinese military activity near Taiwan highlights persistent geopolitical risk in a critical semiconductor hub and shipping lane, ensuring regional stability remains a key investor focus.
If this war isn't stopped, the spillover will move from the Middle East to South Asia and beyond. China and Russia have both the leverage and the incentive to push for a ceasefire. Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan can amplify pressure through dialogue. North Korea will follow Beijing. Though the diplomatic window exists, it is limited.
The Divided Global South
The war has exposed deep cracks in the BRICS bloc. China and Russia condemned the strikes on Iran quickly, but India didn't. South Africa was circumspect, voicing nebulous concerns. The bloc's inability to come up with a unified statement raises concerns about its capacity to create a "new world order" when its members are unable to reach a consensus on the core problem of state aggression.
Latin America split along familiar lines. Brazil, Chile, and Colombia condemned the US-Israel strikes. Argentina and Paraguay, long been targets of Iranian proxies, including the 1994 AMIA bombing in Buenos Aires, went the other way.
Meanwhile, oil-producing nations like Canada, Brazil, and a slowly recovering post-Maduro Venezuela are quietly cashing in on high energy prices. But none can escape the rising fuel costs and inflation.
The Economic Fallout
A fifth of the world's oil and a quarter of its LNG pass through the Strait of Hormuz which is a war zone. Brent crude has surged past $80, and European gas prices are up over 50%.
Europe is taking the hardest hit since Ukraine. Qatari LNG has vanished from the market, leaving the continent scrambling for spot supplies. Italy is especially exposed. The inflationary impact on the Eurozone could be three times worse than in the US. France, Germany, and Britain, already frustrated with Trump, cannot afford a prolonged war.
The US is cushioned by its shale production but is not immune. Gas prices are up 20%, squeezing households and businesses alike. The war is estimated to cost Washington $5 billion a week.
Japan and South Korea, almost entirely dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports, face serious damage to their manufacturing sectors if the disruption continues. The Philippines carries a human cost on top of the economic one. Over two million Filipino workers are based in the Middle East. Evacuations are underway and remittances, which are a lifeline for the Philippine economy, are drying up.
Conclusion: The Multipolar Crucible
This war hasn't just destabilised the Middle East; it has also accelerated the end of American unipolarity. The old US-Europe-Israel axis now faces a loose but formidable counter-bloc of Russia, China, and Iran, while Turkey and Saudi Arabia play both sides on their own terms.
For South Asia, the fallout is acute. India's ties to the US-Israel axis and its Chabahar investment in Iran are pulling in opposite directions. Pakistan faces economic pain and border chaos, but sees an opening to become the Gulf's indispensable security partner. It is a new leverage it didn't have before.
The Gulf monarchies have lost their carefully maintained neutrality. Turkey manoeuvres independently, its NATO membership increasingly nominal. China and Russia watch energy prices rise and American prestige fall, largely insulated from the immediate chaos.
BRICS, the SCO, Latin America, and Africa are fracturing along national interest lines. A multipolar world consists of competing powers, each pursuing their own survival.
The current pace of global realignment is historically unprecedented. This rapid change is so extreme that it renders traditional analyses outdated almost instantly.
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